并非所有的好消息都是买信号。有时，最积极的头条标志着转折点

2025年5月的第一周，有许多积极的标题涌入加密货币市场。自一月以来，比特币首次飙升了103,000美元。

The first week of May saw a swift market correction after a wave of good news pushed Bitcoin past $103,000 and the Fear & Greed Index soared to 70. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims dropped to 228,000, fueling investor optimism that the Fed might hold interest rates steady or even begin a rate-cutting cycle in Q3. The bullish sentiment sent altcoins like SOL, AVAX, TON, and INJ up by more than 15% over just four trading sessions.

5月的第一周，一波好消息将比特币推向了103,000美元，而恐惧和贪婪指数飙升至70。与此同时，美国失业索赔下降到228,000。看涨的情绪将仅在四次交易课程中送出了Sol，Avax，Ton和Imp的山寨币，并提高了15％以上。

However, within less than 48 hours, the market reversed sharply, with Bitcoin slipping below $101,800 and Ethereum falling back to around $2,100. Many altcoins also shed between 5% and 10% of their value as investor sentiment turned cautious and capital began rotating out of the week’s top gainers. Once again, the crypto community began discussing a familiar phrase: “Sell the News.”

但是，在不到48小时的时间内，市场急剧倒转，比特币滑倒在101,800美元以下，以太坊降至2,100美元左右。随着投资者情绪变得谨慎，资本开始转移到本周的最高奖励者中，许多山寨币也降低了其价值的5％至10％。加密社区再次开始讨论一个熟悉的短语：“卖新闻。”

Good news doesn’t always mean price gains, especially in crypto, where reactions are faster and greed often outweighs fundamentals.

好消息并不总是意味着价格上涨，尤其是在加密货币中，反应更快，贪婪通常超过基本面。

One of the most classic examples was the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF (BITO) in October 2021. In the lead-up to approval, BTC rallied nearly 40%, from $43,000 to an all-time high of $67,000. However, just three days after the ETF began trading on the NYSE, Bitcoin reversed sharply and entered a months-long correction, ending the year at $47,000. Investors had expected good news to drive fresh inflows, but instead, it marked a sentiment top.

最经典的例子之一是2021年10月的Proshares比特币期货ETF（BITO）推出。在获得批准的领先优势中，BTC升起了近40％，从43,000美元到历史最高的67,000美元。但是，在ETF开始交易纽约证券交易所的三天后，比特币急剧逆转并进行了一个月的更正，结束了年的47,000美元。投资者期望好消息推动新的流入，但它标志着情感上衣。

A similar pattern emerged in January 2024, when the SEC rejected multiple Spot Ethereum ETFs and markets dipped only modestly. Then, as rumors of approval resurfaced in late February, ETH surged from $1,650 to $2,300 in just 10 days. But after the SEC officially greenlit four Spot ETH ETFs in March, ETH unexpectedly dropped 12% during the first week following the announcement.

2024年1月，SEC拒绝了多个以太坊ETF和市场的类似模式出现。然后，随着批准的谣言在2月下旬重新浮出水面，ETH在短短10天内从1,650美元上涨至2,300美元。但是，在3月份SEC正式绿色的四个ETH ETF之后，ETH在宣布消息后的第一周意外地下降了12％。

More recently, in April 2025, Pudgy Penguins’ $PENGU token soared to $0.48 after a Walmart partnership announcement and a spike in Google Trends interest. Just one day later, the token crashed over 60% as the team unlocked a large tranche of tokens for the community.

最近，在2025年4月，Pudgy Penguins的$ Pengu代币飙升至沃尔玛合作伙伴关系公告和Google Trends兴趣激增之后的0.48美元。仅仅一天后，由于该团队为社区解锁了一大批代币，因此代币坠毁了60％。

The meme coin market has also repeatedly echoed this pattern. In December 2023, BONK on Solana jumped over 300% in six days as rumors spread of a major centralized exchange partnership. Yet just two days after the news was confirmed, BONK lost nearly half its value within 48 hours.

模因硬币市场也反复回应了这种模式。 2023年12月，由于谣言传播了主要的集中式交流伙伴关系，索拉纳（Bonk）的索拉纳（Bonk）在六天内跃升了300％以上。然而，在消息得到确认仅两天后，邦克在48小时内就失去了近一半的价值。

The “Sell the News” phenomenon usually isn’t because the news itself is bad, but rather, the market has already “priced in” the good news, with expectations running ahead of reality. According to CryptoQuant, between April 28 and May 10, stablecoin inflows to exchanges rose by 27%, indicating that investors were proactively preparing liquidity to “ride the news.”

通常，“出售新闻”现象通常不是因为新闻本身很糟糕，而是，市场已经“定价”了好消息，期望在现实前面。据CryptoQuant称，在4月28日至5月10日之间，Stablecoin向交易所的流入增长了27％，这表明投资者正在积极准备流动性来“播放新闻”。

However, during the same period, the number of whale wallets (holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) remained largely flat, suggesting that the new inflows came primarily from short-term speculators. This aligns with a common pattern in crypto, where price rallies are often driven more by FOMO than long-term accumulation.

但是，在同一时期，鲸鱼钱包的数量（持有1,000至10,000 btc）仍然很平坦，这表明新的流入主要来自短期投机者。这与加密货币中的共同模式保持一致，在加密货币中，价格集会通常比长期积累更多地由FOMO驱动。

Technical indicators also flashed warnings. On May 9, the daily RSI for both Bitcoin and ETH surpassed 70, signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, trading volume began to decline even as prices kept rising – a classic setup for a potential reversal. Data from Glassnode further showed a modest uptick in BTC deposits to exchanges on May 10, which coincided with the market’s short-term top.

技术指标还闪烁了警告。 5月9日，比特币和ETH的每日RSI超过70，信号超出了条件。同时，即使价格上涨，交易量也开始下降，这是一种潜在逆转的经典设置。 GlassNode的数据进一步表明，BTC沉积物在5月10日进行了交流，这与市场的短期顶部相吻合。

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether you should hold or sell when good news breaks. But three fundamental principles can help guide decision-making:

对于您是否应该在好消息休息时应该举行还是出售，没有一种适合的答案。但是三个基本原则可以帮助指导决策：

First, assess the underlying value of the information. A technical upgrade (like Ethereum’s Pectra) may offer long-term benefits, while token listing announcements or airdrops often provide only short-term upside.

首先，评估信息的基本价值。技术升级（例如以太坊的pectra）可能会提供长期的福利，而代币上市公告或空投通常通常只提供短期上涨空间。

Second, monitor capital flows. If TVL, active users, and on-chain metrics remain largely unchanged after a major announcement, there’s a high probability that the rally is sentiment-driven and unlikely to last.

其次，监控资本流量。如果TVL，Active用户和链链指标在重大公告之后基本上保持不变，那么集会很可能是情感驱动的，并且不太可能持续下去。

Lastly, establish your exit strategy in advance – including clear profit-taking levels or leverage reductions. Making decisions amid volatile market moves often leads to emotional reactions and unexpected losses.

最后，提前建立您的退出策略 - 包括明确的获利水平或利用降低。在动荡的市场转移中做出决定通常会导致情绪反应和意外损失。