Mt. Gox 數十億比特幣正在被償還——我們是如何走到這一步的

Decrypt 的藝術、時尚和娛樂中心。加密貨幣市場可能不得不為未來幾個月潛在的動盪做好準備

Several major Bitcoin (BTC) holders, including government entities and defunct exchanges, could liquidate a large portion of their holdings in the coming months, potentially putting downward pressure on the world's leading digital asset and impacting its market liquidity.

包括政府實體和已解散的交易所在內的幾個主要比特幣（BTC）持有者可能會在未來幾個月內清算其持有的大部分比特幣，這可能會為全球領先的數位資產帶來下行壓力，並影響其市場流動性。

According to a report by crypto data provider Kaiko, the crypto market has experienced persistent supply overhang throughout the summer, with forced selling and the liquidation of bankrupt crypto estates contributing to selling pressure at various stages between May and August.

根據加密資料提供商 Kaiko 的一份報告，加密市場在整個夏季經歷了持續的供應過剩，強制拋售和破產加密資產的清算在 5 月至 8 月的不同階段造成了拋售壓力。

In an interview with Decrypt, Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly, highlighted the significant BTC price pressure related to Mt. Gox distributions, the Japanese yen carry trade, and slowing demand throughout the summer.

Dragonfly 普通合夥人 Rob Hadick 在接受 Decrypt 採訪時強調了與 Mt. Gox 發行、日圓套利交易以及整個夏季需求放緩相關的巨大 BTC 價格壓力。

“The market remains concerned about the overhang that government holdings and additional Mt. Gox distributions present,” Hadick said.

「市場仍然擔心政府持有的股份和 Mt. Gox 的額外發行所帶來的懸而未決的問題，」哈迪克說。

One of the primary sources of market anxiety is the ongoing redistribution of funds to Mt. Gox creditors, with the bankrupt crypto exchange's estate still holding over 46,000 BTC, valued at more than $2 billion, for eventual redistribution.

市場焦慮的主要來源之一是持續向 Mt. Gox 債權人重新分配資金，這家破產的加密貨幣交易所的財產仍持有超過 46,000 枚 BTC，價值超過 20 億美元，用於最終重新分配。

Elaborating on the potential impact of that distribution, Darren Franceschini, co-founder of Fideum, told Decrypt that predictions indicate that nearly all of the Bitcoin, worth over $2.7 billion, might be sold—adding $8.2 billion in additional selling pressure if creditors sell their entire holdings.

Fideum 聯合創始人 Darren Franceschini 詳細闡述了這種分配的潛在影響，他告訴Decrypt，預測表明，幾乎所有價值超過27 億美元的比特幣都可能被出售——如果債權人出售其比特幣，則會增加82 億美元的額外拋售壓力。

Other significant holders could also contribute to selling pressure in the near future. For example, the U.S. government holds Bitcoin worth over $2 billion.

其他重要持有者也可能在不久的將來造成拋售壓力。例如，美國政府持有價值超過20億美元的比特幣。

"Although there is no official announcement about selling these Bitcoins, the possibility of their liquidation could exert substantial pressure on the market," Franceschini said.

Franceschini 表示：“儘管沒有關於出售這些比特幣的官方公告，但其清算的可能性可能會給市場帶來巨大壓力。”

He added that other nations, including the UK, China, and Ukraine, also possess substantial Bitcoin reserves.

他補充說，包括英國、中國和烏克蘭在內的其他國家也擁有大量比特幣儲備。

However, the Kaiko report emphasizes the importance of looking beyond simple trading volumes when assessing market liquidity, such as market depth, which measures the market's ability to absorb large orders without significant price impact.

然而，Kaiko 報告強調了在評估市場流動性時超越簡單交易量的重要性，例如市場深度，它衡量市場在不產生重大價格影響的情況下吸收大訂單的能力。

The report also highlights the significance of the volume-to-liquidity ratio and price slippage as key indicators of market health and efficiency.

該報告還強調了成交量與流動性比率和價格下滑作為市場健康和效率關鍵指標的重要性。

During the first weekend of August, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, briefly trading below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024.

8 月第一個週末，比特幣價格大幅下跌，自 2024 年 2 月以來首次跌破 5 萬美元。

Bartosz Lipiński, CEO of crypto trading platform Cube.Exchange, says that given how fast crypto markets shift, it would be hard to predict which market participants would be the most active sellers, but that an educated guess is possible based on a handful of known factors.

加密貨幣交易平台Cube.Exchange 的執行長Bartosz Lipiński 表示，考慮到加密貨幣市場變化的速度，很難預測哪些市場參與者將是最活躍的賣家，但根據一些已知的情況，可以進行有根據的猜測。

He pointed to Mt. Gox trustees and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as potential sources of selling pressure, adding, "If this trend continues, It would make sense for Bitcoin to struggle to maintain support at or above $60,000 in the near-to-medium-term future."

他指出，Mt.Gox 受託人和比特幣ETF 的資金流出是拋售壓力的潛在來源，並補充道，「如果這種趨勢持續下去，比特幣在近中期努力維持在60,000 美元或以上的支撐位將是有意義的。

Despite these challenges, some experts see the potential for market recovery.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，一些專家還是看到了市場復甦的潛力。

"The election itself may present a catalyst for a friendlier regulatory environment and greater clarity leading to more interest from institutional buyers,” Hadick said. “The large wealth management distribution channels are just now able to start marketing ETFs, and the amount of long-term holders of BTC has risen quickly these past two months, which indicates accumulation.”

哈迪克表示：「選舉本身可能會成為一種催化劑，帶來更友善的監管環境和更明確的監管環境，從而引起機構買家更多的興趣。」過去兩個月，BTC 的定期持有者數量迅速增加，這表明有積累。

Meanwhile, cautioning about a potential wild card, Lipiński also cited the election and the fact that the U.S. has been moving balances on exchanges, even as Donald Trump said he would not sell confiscated crypto and hold it in reserve.

與此同時，利平斯基也提到了選舉以及美國一直在調整交易所平衡的事實，警告潛在的通配符，儘管唐納德·川普表示他不會出售沒收的加密貨幣並將其保留為儲備。

“Should authorities begin mass liquidations of their holdings, the ‘Santa Rally’ that many crypto enthusiasts often see may fail to materialize this year for the first time in a while,” he said.

他表示：“如果當局開始大規模清算其持有的資產，許多加密貨幣愛好者經常看到的‘聖誕老人集會’可能會在今年一段時間內首次無法實現。”