Mt. Gox 数十亿比特币正在被偿还——我们是如何走到这一步的

Decrypt 的艺术、时尚和娱乐中心。加密货币市场可能不得不为未来几个月潜在的动荡做好准备

Several major Bitcoin (BTC) holders, including government entities and defunct exchanges, could liquidate a large portion of their holdings in the coming months, potentially putting downward pressure on the world's leading digital asset and impacting its market liquidity.

包括政府实体和已解散的交易所在内的几个主要比特币（BTC）持有者可能会在未来几个月内清算其持有的大部分比特币，这可能会给全球领先的数字资产带来下行压力，并影响其市场流动性。

According to a report by crypto data provider Kaiko, the crypto market has experienced persistent supply overhang throughout the summer, with forced selling and the liquidation of bankrupt crypto estates contributing to selling pressure at various stages between May and August.

根据加密数据提供商 Kaiko 的一份报告，加密市场在整个夏季经历了持续的供应过剩，强制抛售和破产加密资产的清算在 5 月至 8 月的不同阶段造成了抛售压力。

In an interview with Decrypt, Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly, highlighted the significant BTC price pressure related to Mt. Gox distributions, the Japanese yen carry trade, and slowing demand throughout the summer.

Dragonfly 普通合伙人 Rob Hadick 在接受 Decrypt 采访时强调了与 Mt. Gox 发行、日元套利交易以及整个夏季需求放缓相关的巨大 BTC 价格压力。

“The market remains concerned about the overhang that government holdings and additional Mt. Gox distributions present,” Hadick said.

哈迪克表示：“市场仍然担心政府持有的股份和 Mt. Gox 的额外发行所带来的悬而未决的问题。”

One of the primary sources of market anxiety is the ongoing redistribution of funds to Mt. Gox creditors, with the bankrupt crypto exchange's estate still holding over 46,000 BTC, valued at more than $2 billion, for eventual redistribution.

市场焦虑的主要来源之一是持续向 Mt. Gox 债权人重新分配资金，这家破产的加密货币交易所的财产仍持有超过 46,000 枚 BTC，价值超过 20 亿美元，用于最终重新分配。

Elaborating on the potential impact of that distribution, Darren Franceschini, co-founder of Fideum, told Decrypt that predictions indicate that nearly all of the Bitcoin, worth over $2.7 billion, might be sold—adding $8.2 billion in additional selling pressure if creditors sell their entire holdings.

Fideum 联合创始人达伦·弗朗西斯基尼 (Darren Franceschini) 详细阐述了这种分配的潜在影响，他告诉 Decrypt，预测表明，几乎所有价值超过 27 亿美元的比特币都可能被出售——如果债权人出售其比特币，则会增加 82 亿美元的额外抛售压力。全部控股。

Other significant holders could also contribute to selling pressure in the near future. For example, the U.S. government holds Bitcoin worth over $2 billion.

其他重要持有者也可能在不久的将来造成抛售压力。例如，美国政府持有价值超过20亿美元的比特币。

"Although there is no official announcement about selling these Bitcoins, the possibility of their liquidation could exert substantial pressure on the market," Franceschini said.

Franceschini 表示：“尽管没有关于出售这些比特币的官方公告，但其清算的可能性可能会给市场带来巨大压力。”

He added that other nations, including the UK, China, and Ukraine, also possess substantial Bitcoin reserves.

他补充说，包括英国、中国和乌克兰在内的其他国家也拥有大量比特币储备。

However, the Kaiko report emphasizes the importance of looking beyond simple trading volumes when assessing market liquidity, such as market depth, which measures the market's ability to absorb large orders without significant price impact.

然而，Kaiko 报告强调了在评估市场流动性时超越简单交易量的重要性，例如市场深度，它衡量市场在不产生重大价格影响的情况下吸收大订单的能力。

The report also highlights the significance of the volume-to-liquidity ratio and price slippage as key indicators of market health and efficiency.

该报告还强调了成交量与流动性比率和价格下滑作为市场健康和效率关键指标的重要性。

During the first weekend of August, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, briefly trading below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024.

8 月第一个周末，比特币价格大幅下跌，自 2024 年 2 月以来首次跌破 50,000 美元。

Bartosz Lipiński, CEO of crypto trading platform Cube.Exchange, says that given how fast crypto markets shift, it would be hard to predict which market participants would be the most active sellers, but that an educated guess is possible based on a handful of known factors.

加密货币交易平台 Cube.Exchange 的首席执行官 Bartosz Lipiński 表示，考虑到加密货币市场变化的速度，很难预测哪些市场参与者将是最活跃的卖家，但根据一些已知的情况，可以进行有根据的猜测。因素。

He pointed to Mt. Gox trustees and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as potential sources of selling pressure, adding, "If this trend continues, It would make sense for Bitcoin to struggle to maintain support at or above $60,000 in the near-to-medium-term future."

他指出，Mt.Gox 受托人和比特币 ETF 的资金流出是抛售压力的潜在来源，并补充道，“如果这种趋势持续下去，比特币在近中期努力维持在 60,000 美元或以上的支撑位将是有意义的。”术语未来。”

Despite these challenges, some experts see the potential for market recovery.

尽管面临这些挑战，一些专家还是看到了市场复苏的潜力。

"The election itself may present a catalyst for a friendlier regulatory environment and greater clarity leading to more interest from institutional buyers,” Hadick said. “The large wealth management distribution channels are just now able to start marketing ETFs, and the amount of long-term holders of BTC has risen quickly these past two months, which indicates accumulation.”

哈迪克表示：“选举本身可能会成为一种催化剂，带来更友好的监管环境和更明确的监管环境，从而引起机构买家更多的兴趣。”过去两个月，BTC 的定期持有者数量迅速增加，这表明有积累。”

Meanwhile, cautioning about a potential wild card, Lipiński also cited the election and the fact that the U.S. has been moving balances on exchanges, even as Donald Trump said he would not sell confiscated crypto and hold it in reserve.

与此同时，利平斯基还提到了选举以及美国一直在调整交易所平衡的事实，警告潜在的通配符，尽管唐纳德·特朗普表示他不会出售没收的加密货币并将其保留为储备。

“Should authorities begin mass liquidations of their holdings, the ‘Santa Rally’ that many crypto enthusiasts often see may fail to materialize this year for the first time in a while,” he said.

他表示：“如果当局开始大规模清算其持有的资产，许多加密货币爱好者经常看到的‘圣诞老人集会’可能会在今年一段时间内首次无法实现。”