在比特幣價格崩潰中，MST股票暴跌：深度潛水

MST股票面臨逆風，因為比特幣步履蹣跚，並且MNAV多個命中率逐年低。這是購買機會還是痛苦的跡象？

Hold on to your hats, folks! The crypto rollercoaster is at it again, and this time, MSTR stock is feeling the G-force. With Bitcoin taking a tumble, let's break down what's happening with MSTR and what it all means.

抓住你的帽子，伙計們！加密過山車又來了，這次，MSTR股票感覺到G-Force。隨著比特幣的流失，讓我們分解MSTR的情況以及一切的含義。

MSTR Stock: Down But Not Out?

MSTR股票：下降但不出去？

MSTR stock, often seen as a leveraged play on Bitcoin, has taken a beating. Recent trading saw it dip to levels not seen since April, erasing its year-to-date gains. This drop coincides with Bitcoin's own struggles, falling below $109,000, a level not seen in nearly a month. The stock price crashed below an important support level as Bitcoin fell below $110,000 and as its mNAV multiple reached its year-to-date low. Strategy stock price traded $297 on Thursday, its lowest level since April, and 35% below its all time high. This crash has brought its market capitalization from the year-to-date high of $129 billion to now $84 billion. Ouch!

MSTR Stock經常被視為比特幣上的槓桿作用，受到了毆打。最近的交易使其下降到自4月以來未見的水平，從而消除了其年初的收益。這次下降與比特幣自己的掙扎相吻合，低於109,000美元，這一水平近一個月未見。隨著比特幣低於110,000美元，其MNAV倍數達到其年度最低水平，股價跌至重要的支持水平以下。戰略股票價格在周四交易297美元，其最低水平自4月以來，比歷史最高水平低35％。這次崩潰使其市值從年初至今的高價提高到現在的1290億美元到現在的840億美元。哎喲!

Bitcoin's Bearish Signals

比特幣的看跌信號

Bitcoin's technical charts are flashing some warning signs. The formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern and a rising wedge suggests potential further downside. A prolonged Bitcoin price crash would be negative for Strategy, a company that has become the biggest holder globally. It holds 639,835 coins, currently worth $69 billion. The same coins would be worth $80 billion if it was at its all-time high of $124,200.

比特幣的技術圖表正在閃爍一些警告標誌。頭和肩的形成和上升的楔形表明潛在的不利方面。長時間的比特幣價格崩潰對戰略而言是負面的，該公司在全球範圍內已成為最大的持有人。它擁有639,835個硬幣，目前價值690億美元。如果它的歷史最高點為124,200美元，同一硬幣的價值將價值800億美元。

The mNAV Multiple: A Key Indicator

MNAV倍數：關鍵指示器

The mNAV (market cap to net asset value) multiple is a crucial metric for MSTR. It reflects the premium investors are willing to pay for the company's Bitcoin holdings. This multiple has plunged to a year-to-date low, impacting MSTR's ability to raise capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions. The falling mNAV multiple is risky for the company because it uses its premium to raise capital, which it uses to buy Bitcoin. For a long time, Saylor’s rule was that he would not issue shares if the mNAV moved below 2.5. He changed it in August, opening the door for more dilution.

MNAV（淨資產淨值）多重值是MSTR的關鍵指標。它反映了高級投資者願意為公司的比特幣持有量付費。這倍數已經跌至一年一度的低點，影響了MSTR籌集更多比特幣收購資本的能力。 MNAV下降的倍數對公司來說是有風險的，因為它使用其溢價來籌集資本，該資本用來購買比特幣。很長一段時間以來，塞勒的規則是，如果MNAV提升到2.5以下，他將不會發行股票。他在八月改變了它，打開了更多稀釋的大門。

Federal Reserve's Role

美聯儲的角色

Adding to the uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hawkish comments from Fed officials, suggesting caution in cutting rates, have spooked the market. This could further pressure Bitcoin and, consequently, MSTR. Federal Reserve’s Beth Hammack Warns Again Interest Rate Cuts, Unlike other Federal Reserve officials, Hammack believes that the bank should focus on inflation, which remains at elevated levels. It has remained above the Fed’s target of 2.0% in the last four years and that it will take longer to reach the target. She expects rate cuts to trigger higher inflation in the coming months.

美聯儲對利率的立場加上不確定性。美聯儲官員的鷹派評論表明，削減速度的謹慎，使市場嚇到了市場。這可能會進一步施加壓力比特幣，從而進一步壓力MSTR。與其他美聯儲官員不同，美聯儲的貝絲·哈馬克（Beth Hammack）再次警告說，哈馬克（Hammack）認為，該銀行應專注於通貨膨脹，該通貨膨脹率保持較高的水平。在過去的四年中，它一直高於美聯儲的目標2.0％，到達目標需要更長的時間。她預計在未來幾個月內，降低利率將觸發更高的通貨膨脹。

Technical Analysis: More Downside Ahead?

技術分析：未來的方面還有更多缺點？

Technical analysis of MSTR stock reveals bearish patterns, including a death cross (when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average). This suggests potential further declines, with a key support level around $250. The daily timeframe chart shows that the MSTR stock has crashed from a high of $457 in July to $295 today. It dropped below the important support level at $318, where it failed to move below several times this month. Worse, the stock is about to form the risky death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages has narrowed.

MSTR庫存的技術分析揭示了看跌模式，包括死亡十字架（當50天移動平均線交叉低於200天移動平均線時）。這表明潛在的進一步下降，關鍵支持水平約為250美元。每日時間表圖顯示，MST的股票已從7月的457美元跌至今天的295美元。它以318美元的價格下降到重要的支持水平以下，本月未能以低於幾次的速度移動。更糟糕的是，隨著50天和200天的指數移動平均值的差異已縮小，該股票即將形成危險的死亡交叉模式。

My Take

我的看法

While the current situation looks grim for MSTR, it's important to remember the volatile nature of the crypto market. MSTR's fate is closely tied to Bitcoin's performance, making it a high-risk, high-reward investment. Investors should proceed with caution and consider their risk tolerance before making any decisions. The MSTR stock price has plunged in the past few months and moved into a deep bear market after plunging by over 26% from the year-to-date high.

儘管當前的情況對MSTR來說看起來很嚴峻，但重要的是要記住加密貨幣市場的動盪性。 MSTR的命運與比特幣的表現密切相關，使其成為高風險，高回報的投資。投資者應謹慎行事，並在做出任何決定之前考慮其風險承受能力。在過去的幾個月中，MST的股票價格跌至深熊市，從截至年前高達26％以上，進入了一個深熊市。

With Thursday's nosedive, BTC is now on the brink of taking out the lows of late August-early September, when it bottomed just above $107,000. That price level could serve as support at least for a bounce, with order books also showing a liquidity cluster which could absorb selling pressure.

隨著周四的鼻子，BTC現在正處於8月下旬至9月的低點，當時它觸底了107,000美元以上。這個價格水平至少可以作為反彈的支持，其中訂單書還顯示了一個流動性集群，可能會吸收銷售壓力。

Looking Ahead

展望未來

So, what's next for MSTR and Bitcoin? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: it's going to be a wild ride. Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts!

那麼，MSTR和比特幣的下一步是什麼？只有時間會證明。但是可以肯定的是：這將是一個瘋狂的旅程。搭扣，加密愛好者！