Michael Saylor 預測比特幣未來 21 年將上漲 12,900%

Michael Saylor 預測比特幣在未來 21 年將達到 29% 的年化報酬率。塞勒將比特幣的潛在成長歸因於採用率的提高

Michael Saylor has made a bold prediction for bitcoin's future returns, projecting an annualized rate of 29% over the next 21 years.

Michael Saylor 對比特幣的未來報酬率做出了大膽預測，預計未來 21 年年化報酬率為 29%。

The cofounder and chairman of MicroStrategy shared his long-term outlook for bitcoin with CNBC on Friday, following a banner year for the cryptocurrency.

在加密貨幣經歷了輝煌的一年之後，MicroStrategy 的聯合創始人兼董事長週五與 CNBC 分享了他對比特幣的長期展望。

"My long-term forecast is 21 years, 29% ARR. Right now we're 60% ARR, it will decelerate toward 20% ARR over the next 21 years, and the volatility will decelerate," Saylor said.

「我的長期預測是 21 年，ARR 為 29%。目前我們的 ARR 為 60%，未來 21 年將減速至 20% ARR，波動性也會減弱，」Saylor 說。

"ARR" stands for annualized rate of return, and Saylor's projection suggests that bitcoin's astronomical gains will continue, but at a slower pace and with less volatility.

「ARR」代表年化回報率，塞勒的預測表明，比特幣的天文數字收益將繼續，但速度較慢，波動性較小。

To put Saylor's prediction into perspective, a 29% annualized return over two decades would translate to gains of about 12,900%. If that pans out, and you were to buy one bitcoin today for around $95,000, it would be worth roughly $1.2 million by 2045.

從塞勒的預測來看，二十年內 29% 的年化報酬率將轉化為約 12,900% 的收益。如果這種情況成功，而您今天以 95,000 美元左右的價格購買一枚比特幣，那麼到 2045 年，其價值將約為 120 萬美元。

Saylor's bullish outlook on bitcoin is largely driven by his belief that the cryptocurrency will see wider adoption by investors and experience diminishing volatility.

塞勒對比特幣的看漲前景很大程度上是因為他相信加密貨幣將被投資者更廣泛地採用，波動性將會減弱。

"The narrative will shift toward lower volatility, higher capital appreciation, and ultimately bitcoin will become the strongest capital asset in the world," Saylor said.

塞勒表示：“市場的敘事將轉向更低的波動性、更高的資本增值，最終比特幣將成為世界上最強大的資本資產。”

Another factor that Saylor believes will boost bitcoin's value is the Republican Party's strong showing in the recent midterm elections.

Saylor認為會推高比特幣價值的另一個因素是共和黨在最近的中期選舉中的強勁表現。

"I think that the red wave was incredibly bullish," Saylor said, referring to the Republican gains in the House and Senate.

「我認為紅色浪潮非常樂觀，」塞勒說，他指的是共和黨在眾議院和參議院的進展。

"We saw Donald Trump come out and say that bitcoin is very interesting, and we saw a lot of the candidates talking about crypto," he added.

“我們看到唐納德·特朗普站出來說比特幣非常有趣，我們看到很多候選人都在談論加密貨幣，”他補充道。

"I think that bodes very well for bitcoin-friendly legislation in the next two years, and it could even lead to the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve."

“我認為這對於未來兩年有利於比特幣的立法來說是個好兆頭，甚至可能導致比特幣戰略儲備的建立。”

Senator Cynthia Lummis told CNBC on Thursday that the Federal Reserve should sell some of its gold holdings and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin, which would be a major development in the cryptocurrency's history.

參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 週四對 CNBC 表示，聯準會應該出售部分持有的黃金，並用所得收益購買比特幣，這將是加密貨幣歷史上的重大發展。

Saylor has been a vocal proponent of bitcoin for several years, and he has used his company, MicroStrategy, to acquire a vast holding of the cryptocurrency.

Saylor 多年來一直是比特幣的大力支持者，他利用自己的公司 MicroStrategy 收購了大量的加密貨幣。

As of December 1, MicroStrategy owned 331,200 bitcoins, which were valued at more than $30 billion at the time.

截至 12 月 1 日，MicroStrategy 擁有 331,200 枚比特幣，當時價值超過 300 億美元。

The company has been raising debt via convertible bonds to continue buying bitcoin, and Saylor has said that MicroStrategy will "never sell" its bitcoin holdings.

該公司一直在透過可轉換債券籌集債務以繼續購買比特幣，塞勒表示 MicroStrategy 將「永遠不會出售」其持有的比特幣。

"Ultimately, I think the right way to think of it is, it's always going to be the stronger capital asset versus a conventional S&P index," Saylor told CNBC.

塞勒對 CNBC 表示：“最終，我認為正確的思考方式是，與傳統的標準普爾指數相比，它始終是更強大的資本資產。”

He added that his "long-term forecast is $13 million a coin by the year 2045. And what I tell everybody is every bitcoin you don't buy today is going to cost you $13 million in the future."

他補充說，他的「長期預測是到2045 年，一枚比特幣的價格將達到1300 萬美元。我告訴大家的是，你今天不購買的每一枚比特幣，將來都會花費你1300 萬美元。