Michael Saylor 预测比特币未来 21 年将上涨 12,900%

Michael Saylor 预测比特币在未来 21 年将实现 29% 的年化回报率。塞勒将比特币的潜在增长归因于采用率的提高

Michael Saylor has made a bold prediction for bitcoin's future returns, projecting an annualized rate of 29% over the next 21 years.

Michael Saylor 对比特币的未来回报做出了大胆预测，预计未来 21 年年化回报率为 29%。

The cofounder and chairman of MicroStrategy shared his long-term outlook for bitcoin with CNBC on Friday, following a banner year for the cryptocurrency.

在加密货币经历了辉煌的一年之后，MicroStrategy 的联合创始人兼董事长周五与 CNBC 分享了他对比特币的长期展望。

"My long-term forecast is 21 years, 29% ARR. Right now we're 60% ARR, it will decelerate toward 20% ARR over the next 21 years, and the volatility will decelerate," Saylor said.

“我的长期预测是 21 年，ARR 为 29%。目前我们的 ARR 为 60%，未来 21 年将减速至 20% ARR，波动性也会减弱，”Saylor 说。

"ARR" stands for annualized rate of return, and Saylor's projection suggests that bitcoin's astronomical gains will continue, but at a slower pace and with less volatility.

“ARR”代表年化回报率，塞勒的预测表明，比特币的天文数字收益将继续，但速度较慢，波动性较小。

To put Saylor's prediction into perspective, a 29% annualized return over two decades would translate to gains of about 12,900%. If that pans out, and you were to buy one bitcoin today for around $95,000, it would be worth roughly $1.2 million by 2045.

从塞勒的预测来看，二十年内 29% 的年化回报率将转化为约 12,900% 的收益。如果这种情况成功，并且您今天以 95,000 美元左右的价格购买一枚比特币，那么到 2045 年，其价值将约为 120 万美元。

Saylor's bullish outlook on bitcoin is largely driven by his belief that the cryptocurrency will see wider adoption by investors and experience diminishing volatility.

塞勒对比特币的看涨前景很大程度上是因为他相信加密货币将被投资者更广泛地采用，并且波动性将会减弱。

"The narrative will shift toward lower volatility, higher capital appreciation, and ultimately bitcoin will become the strongest capital asset in the world," Saylor said.

塞勒表示：“市场的叙述将转向更低的波动性、更高的资本增值，最终比特币将成为世界上最强大的资本资产。”

Another factor that Saylor believes will boost bitcoin's value is the Republican Party's strong showing in the recent midterm elections.

Saylor认为会推高比特币价值的另一个因素是共和党在最近的中期选举中的强劲表现。

"I think that the red wave was incredibly bullish," Saylor said, referring to the Republican gains in the House and Senate.

“我认为红色浪潮非常乐观，”塞勒说，他指的是共和党在众议院和参议院的进展。

"We saw Donald Trump come out and say that bitcoin is very interesting, and we saw a lot of the candidates talking about crypto," he added.

“我们看到唐纳德·特朗普站出来说比特币非常有趣，我们看到很多候选人都在谈论加密货币，”他补充道。

"I think that bodes very well for bitcoin-friendly legislation in the next two years, and it could even lead to the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve."

“我认为这对于未来两年有利于比特币的立法来说是个好兆头，甚至可能导致比特币战略储备的建立。”

Senator Cynthia Lummis told CNBC on Thursday that the Federal Reserve should sell some of its gold holdings and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin, which would be a major development in the cryptocurrency's history.

参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 周四对 CNBC 表示，美联储应该出售部分持有的黄金，并用所得收益购买比特币，这将是加密货币历史上的重大发展。

Saylor has been a vocal proponent of bitcoin for several years, and he has used his company, MicroStrategy, to acquire a vast holding of the cryptocurrency.

Saylor 多年来一直是比特币的大力支持者，他利用自己的公司 MicroStrategy 收购了大量的加密货币。

As of December 1, MicroStrategy owned 331,200 bitcoins, which were valued at more than $30 billion at the time.

截至 12 月 1 日，MicroStrategy 拥有 331,200 枚比特币，当时价值超过 300 亿美元。

The company has been raising debt via convertible bonds to continue buying bitcoin, and Saylor has said that MicroStrategy will "never sell" its bitcoin holdings.

该公司一直在通过可转换债券筹集债务以继续购买比特币，塞勒表示 MicroStrategy 将“永远不会出售”其持有的比特币。

"Ultimately, I think the right way to think of it is, it's always going to be the stronger capital asset versus a conventional S&P index," Saylor told CNBC.

塞勒对 CNBC 表示：“最终，我认为正确的思考方式是，与传统的标准普尔指数相比，它始终是更强劲的资本资产。”

He added that his "long-term forecast is $13 million a coin by the year 2045. And what I tell everybody is every bitcoin you don't buy today is going to cost you $13 million in the future."

他补充说，他的“长期预测是到 2045 年，一枚比特币的价格将达到 1300 万美元。我告诉大家的是，你今天不购买的每一枚比特币，将来都会花费你 1300 万美元。”