市場對比特幣飆升至新高的期望可能會阻止它發生

市場對比特幣飆升至新高點的期望可能會阻止其在短期內發生，但這並不排除使投資者令人驚訝的可能性

The market’s anticipation of Bitcoin surging to new highs could prevent it from happening in the near term, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of Ether surprising investors, analysts say.

分析師說，市場對比特幣飆升至新高點的期望可能會在近期內發生，但這並不排除Ether令人驚訝的投資者的可能性。

Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan told Cointelegraph on Wednesday that the analytics firm is “seeing an anticipation for Bitcoin's next ‘all-time high’ across social media. Since markets move in the opposite direction of retail's expectations, usually this is a sign that we aren't quite ready for another bull move yet.”

Santiment分析師Brian Quinlivan週三對Cointelegraph表示，分析公司“看到對比特幣在社交媒體中的下一個“歷史最高高”的期望。由於市場朝著零售業的期望相反的方向移動，通常這是一個跡象，這表明我們還沒有準備好又有另一頭公牛的動作。”

Bitcoin's 'frustrating' close calls may lead to aggressive upswing

比特幣的“令人沮喪的”近距離電話可能會導致積極的上升

Quinlivan suggested the lack of doubt has proven that all-time highs tend not to follow, but with Bitcoin (BTC) having verged on all-time highs a handful of times now, sentiment has moved into a lower position to propel Bitcoin above its current peak.

昆利文（Quinlivan）認為，缺乏疑問證明，歷史高潮往往不會遵循，但是隨著比特幣（BTC）現在在有史以來的少數時間都拋棄了，情緒已經進入了較低的位置，以推動比特幣高於其當前峰值的位置。

Bitcoin is trading at $109,679 at the time of publication, just 2.1% off its $111,970 all-time high, which it reached on May 22, according to CoinMarketCap.

根據CoinMarketCap的數據，在出版時，比特幣的交易價格為109,679美元，其歷史最高額為111,970美元的高度僅2.1％，這是5月22日達到的。

“It wouldn't be surprising if we do break through very soon after we see a few frustrating 'close calls' that cause small traders to turn sour and impatient on BTC, neutralizing this level of optimism,” Quinlivan said.

昆利文說：“如果我們看到一些令人沮喪的'親密呼叫'導緻小交易者會使BTC變酸和不耐煩，從而消除了這種樂觀的水平，那就不足為奇了。”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, is reading a "Greed" score of 72 out of 100.

衡量總體市場情緒的加密恐懼和貪婪指數正在閱讀100分中的72分。

Derive head of research Dr Sean Dawson told Cointelegraph he thinks Bitcoin "will likely underperform" in the third quarter of this year.

派生研究負責人肖恩·道森（Sean Dawson）博士告訴Cointelegraph，他認為比特幣在今年的第三季度“可能表現不佳”。

Q3 has historically been the worst for Bitcoin

Q3歷史上是比特幣最糟糕的

Since 2013, the third quarter of each year has historically been Bitcoin's weakest, averaging a 6.03% return, while the following quarter has been the strongest, delivering an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass data.

根據Coinglass的數據，自2013年以來，每年的第三季度一直是比特幣最弱的，平均收益率為6.03％，而下一季度是最強的，平均回報率為85.42％。

Dawson pointed to macroeconomic uncertainty as a significant concern for traders. "Despite political pressure for rate cuts, the Fed seems poised to keep interest rates steady, which could dampen Bitcoin's appeal for outsized returns," he said.

道森指出，宏觀經濟的不確定性是交易者的重大關注點。他說：“儘管政治削減稅率，美聯儲似乎準備保持利率穩定，這可能會削弱比特幣對巨額回報的呼籲。”

Related: Bitcoin's 'fair value' could be as high as $230K — Bitwise analysts

相關：比特幣的“公允價值”可能高達23萬美元 - 位分析師

99.9% of market participants expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates the same at 4.25% to 4.50% on June 18, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

根據CME的FedWatch工具的數據，99.9％的市場參與者預計美聯儲將使利率保持不變，為4.25％至4.50％。

While uncertainty remains about Bitcoin, Quinlivan pointed out the "high level of optimism toward Ethereum."

儘管對比特幣的不確定性仍然存在，但昆利文指出了“對以太坊的樂觀態度”。

"More and more eyes have turned to Ethereum," he said, adding that the asset has been "playing catch-up since markets began their recovery in mid-April." Ether (ETH) reached a low of $1,472 on April 9, but has since recovered to $2,793 by the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

他說：“越來越多的目光轉向以太坊。根據CoinMarketCap數據，Ether（ETH）在4月9日達到了1,472美元，但此後已恢復到2,793美元。

"Bitcoin's jump over the past couple of months has, of course, allowed profit redistributions to allow other market caps to perform. And it really wasn't clear until ETH was really seeing maximum bearishness a couple of months ago."

“當然，在過去的幾個月中，比特幣的跳躍允許利潤重新分配以允許其他市值的表現。而且直到ETH幾個月前ETH真正看到最高的看跌期權之前，這確實不清楚。”

Meanwhile, Dawson said that overall crypto trading volume may decline in the near term, as the arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere leads many investors to take vacations.

同時，道森說，由於夏季到達北半球的到來導致許多投資者進行假期，因此近期的總體加密交易量可能會在短期內下降。

"This seasonal lull raises the chances of sideways movement or even sharp pullbacks, as traders take profits from earlier gains," Dawson said.

道森說：“隨著交易者從早期的收益中獲利，這種季節性休息會增加側向運動甚至急劇的回調機會。”