市场对比特币飙升至新高的期望可能会阻止它发生

市场对比特币飙升至新高点的期望可能会阻止其在短期内发生，但这并不排除使投资者令人惊讶的可能性

The market’s anticipation of Bitcoin surging to new highs could prevent it from happening in the near term, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of Ether surprising investors, analysts say.

分析师说，市场对比特币飙升至新高点的期望可能会在近期内发生，但这并不排除Ether令人惊讶的投资者的可能性。

Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan told Cointelegraph on Wednesday that the analytics firm is “seeing an anticipation for Bitcoin's next ‘all-time high’ across social media. Since markets move in the opposite direction of retail's expectations, usually this is a sign that we aren't quite ready for another bull move yet.”

Santiment分析师Brian Quinlivan周三对Cointelegraph表示，分析公司“看到对比特币在社交媒体中的下一个“历史最高高”的期望。由于市场朝着零售业的期望相反的方向移动，通常这是一个迹象，这表明我们还没有准备好又有另一头公牛的动作。”

Bitcoin's 'frustrating' close calls may lead to aggressive upswing

比特币的“令人沮丧的”近距离电话可能会导致积极的上升

Quinlivan suggested the lack of doubt has proven that all-time highs tend not to follow, but with Bitcoin (BTC) having verged on all-time highs a handful of times now, sentiment has moved into a lower position to propel Bitcoin above its current peak.

昆利文（Quinlivan）认为，缺乏疑问证明，历史高潮往往不会遵循，但是随着比特币（BTC）现在在有史以来的少数时间都抛弃了，情绪已经进入了较低的位置，以推动比特币高于其当前峰值的位置。

Bitcoin is trading at $109,679 at the time of publication, just 2.1% off its $111,970 all-time high, which it reached on May 22, according to CoinMarketCap.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在出版时，比特币的交易价格为109,679美元，其历史最高额为111,970美元的高度仅2.1％，这是5月22日达到的。

“It wouldn't be surprising if we do break through very soon after we see a few frustrating 'close calls' that cause small traders to turn sour and impatient on BTC, neutralizing this level of optimism,” Quinlivan said.

昆利文说：“如果我们看到一些令人沮丧的'亲密呼叫'导致小交易者会使BTC变酸和不耐烦，从而消除了这种乐观的水平，那就不足为奇了。”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, is reading a "Greed" score of 72 out of 100.

衡量总体市场情绪的加密恐惧和贪婪指数正在阅读100分中的72分。

Derive head of research Dr Sean Dawson told Cointelegraph he thinks Bitcoin "will likely underperform" in the third quarter of this year.

派生研究负责人肖恩·道森（Sean Dawson）博士告诉Cointelegraph，他认为比特币在今年的第三季度“可能表现不佳”。

Q3 has historically been the worst for Bitcoin

Q3历史上是比特币最糟糕的

Since 2013, the third quarter of each year has historically been Bitcoin's weakest, averaging a 6.03% return, while the following quarter has been the strongest, delivering an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass data.

根据Coinglass的数据，自2013年以来，每年的第三季度一直是比特币最弱的，平均收益率为6.03％，而下一季度是最强的，平均回报率为85.42％。

Dawson pointed to macroeconomic uncertainty as a significant concern for traders. "Despite political pressure for rate cuts, the Fed seems poised to keep interest rates steady, which could dampen Bitcoin's appeal for outsized returns," he said.

道森指出，宏观经济的不确定性是交易者的重大关注点。他说：“尽管政治削减税率，美联储似乎准备保持利率稳定，这可能会削弱比特币对巨额回报的呼吁。”

Related: Bitcoin's 'fair value' could be as high as $230K — Bitwise analysts

相关：比特币的“公允价值”可能高达23万美元 - 位分析师

99.9% of market participants expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates the same at 4.25% to 4.50% on June 18, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

根据CME的FedWatch工具的数据，99.9％的市场参与者预计美联储将使利率保持不变，为4.25％至4.50％。

While uncertainty remains about Bitcoin, Quinlivan pointed out the "high level of optimism toward Ethereum."

尽管对比特币的不确定性仍然存在，但昆利文指出了“对以太坊的乐观态度”。

"More and more eyes have turned to Ethereum," he said, adding that the asset has been "playing catch-up since markets began their recovery in mid-April." Ether (ETH) reached a low of $1,472 on April 9, but has since recovered to $2,793 by the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

他说：“越来越多的目光转向以太坊。根据CoinMarketCap数据，Ether（ETH）在4月9日达到了1,472美元，但此后已恢复到2,793美元。

"Bitcoin's jump over the past couple of months has, of course, allowed profit redistributions to allow other market caps to perform. And it really wasn't clear until ETH was really seeing maximum bearishness a couple of months ago."

“当然，在过去的几个月中，比特币的跳跃允许利润重新分配以允许其他市值的表现。而且直到ETH几个月前ETH真正看到最高的看跌期权之前，这确实不清楚。”

Meanwhile, Dawson said that overall crypto trading volume may decline in the near term, as the arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere leads many investors to take vacations.

同时，道森说，由于夏季到达北半球的到来导致许多投资者进行假期，因此近期的总体加密交易量可能会在短期内下降。

"This seasonal lull raises the chances of sideways movement or even sharp pullbacks, as traders take profits from earlier gains," Dawson said.

道森说：“随着交易者从早期的收益中获利，这种季节性休息会增加侧向运动甚至急剧的回调机会。”