儘管最近的市場糾正，大多數加密分析師都期望牛週期持續到2025年底

儘管大多數分析師都希望加密牛週期持續到2025年底，但人們擔心美國的經濟衰退

Most analysts expect the crypto bull cycle to continue until the end of 2025, but concerns over an economic recession in the United States, along with crypto’s “circular” economy, may still threaten crypto valuations.

大多數分析師預計，加密牛週期將持續到2025年底，但對美國經濟衰退以及加密貨幣的“循環”經濟的擔憂仍然可能威脅到加密貨幣的估值。

Despite the recent market correction, most crypto analysts expect the bull cycle to peak after the third quarter of 2025, with Bitcoin BTCUSD price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

儘管最近進行了市場糾正，但大多數加密分析師都預計，公牛週期在2025年第三季度之後達到頂峰，比特幣BTCUSD價格預測範圍從160,000美元到超過180,000美元不等。

However, despite the optimistic price predictions, crypto markets may still be affected by several external and industry-specific risks, according to Arthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos.

但是，儘管價格有樂觀的預測，但Tezos的聯合創始人Arthur Breitman表示，加密貨幣市場可能仍會受到幾種外部和行業特定風險的影響。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Breitman noted that, besides the U.S. president’s trade war plans, crypto's biggest risk is related to the "circular" nature of its economy.

布雷特曼（Breitman）在接受Cointelegraph的講話時指出，除了美國總統的貿易戰計劃外，加密貨幣的最大風險與其經濟的“循環”性質有關。

"Within the industry, the main risk is that the industry is still very much in search of grounding. It's all still very circular."

“在行業內，主要風險是該行業仍在尋找基礎。這仍然是非常循環的。”

"If you look at DeFi, for example, the point of finance is to finance something […], but if the only thing that DeFi finances is more DeFi, then that's circular."

“例如，如果您看一下defi，財務目的是為某些東西提供資金，但是，如果唯一的fefi財務狀況更為偏見，那就是循環。”

This is in stark contrast to the stock market, which is "built on revenue-generating businesses," making the crypto industry’s “lack of grounding” one of the main industry threats, Breitman added.

Breitman補充說，這與股票市場形成鮮明對比，股市“建立在創收業務上”，這使得加密行業的“缺乏基礎”是主要行業威脅之一。

Other industry insiders have also criticized the state of the crypto economy, specifically related to the latest memecoin meltdowns, which are siphoning liquidity from more established cryptocurrencies.

其他行業內部人士還批評了加密經濟的狀況，特別是與最新的Memecoin崩潰有關，後者是來自更既定的加密貨幣的流動性。

Solana was hit by over $485 million worth of outflows in February after the recent wave of memecoin rug pulls triggered an investor flight to "safety," with some of the capital flowing into memecoins on the BNB Chain, such as the Broccoli memecoin, inspired by the Changpeng Zhao's dog.

在最近的Memecoin地毯拉力拉動浪潮引發了“安全”的飛行之後，索拉納（Solana）在2月遭受了價值超過4.85億美元的流出，其中一些資本流入了BNB鏈上的Memecoins，例如BROCCOLI MEMECOIN，受到了Changpeng Zhao的狗的啟發。

US recession fears are crypto's biggest external risk: Tezos co-founder

美國經濟衰退的擔憂是加密貨幣的最大外部風險：Tezos聯合創始人

The cryptocurrency markets are still expected to be affected by several macroeconomic concerns, including a potential U.S. recession, which will hit both traditional and cryptocurrency traders.

仍然預計加密貨幣市場將受到一些宏觀經濟問題的影響，其中包括潛在的美國衰退，這將襲擊傳統和加密貨幣交易者。

"In terms of macro events, I still think we could see a recession," said Breitman, adding that such an event would affect the tech market, which in turn will influence crypto traders.

布雷特曼說：“就宏觀事件而言，我仍然認為我們可以看到經濟衰退。”他補充說，這樣的事件會影響科技市場，這反過來會影響加密交易者。

Cryptocurrency markets still trade in significant correlation with tech stocks, meaning that a recession will cause a widespread sell-off, he added.

他補充說，加密貨幣市場仍與技術股票顯著相關，這意味著經濟衰退將導致廣泛的拋售。

The current trade war concerns, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's import tariffs and continued retaliatory measures, have reignited concerns over a potential recession.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的進口關稅和繼續進行報復措施驅動的當前貿易戰爭問題已重新激發了人們對潛在衰退的擔憂。

Over 40% of market participants expect a recession in the U.S. this year, up from just 22% a month ago on Feb. 17, according to the largest decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.

根據最大的分散預測市場Polymarket，超過40％的市場參與者預計今年的衰退今年的衰退，這一比例為2月17日的22％。