尽管最近的市场纠正，大多数加密分析师都期望牛周期持续到2025年底

尽管大多数分析师都希望加密牛周期持续到2025年底，但人们担心美国的经济衰退

Most analysts expect the crypto bull cycle to continue until the end of 2025, but concerns over an economic recession in the United States, along with crypto’s “circular” economy, may still threaten crypto valuations.

大多数分析师预计，加密牛周期将持续到2025年底，但对美国经济衰退以及加密货币的“循环”经济的担忧仍然可能威胁到加密货币的估值。

Despite the recent market correction, most crypto analysts expect the bull cycle to peak after the third quarter of 2025, with Bitcoin BTCUSD price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

尽管最近进行了市场纠正，但大多数加密分析师都预计，公牛周期在2025年第三季度之后达到顶峰，比特币BTCUSD价格预测范围从160,000美元到超过180,000美元不等。

However, despite the optimistic price predictions, crypto markets may still be affected by several external and industry-specific risks, according to Arthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos.

但是，尽管价格有乐观的预测，但Tezos的联合创始人Arthur Breitman表示，加密货币市场可能仍会受到几种外部和行业特定风险的影响。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Breitman noted that, besides the U.S. president’s trade war plans, crypto's biggest risk is related to the "circular" nature of its economy.

布雷特曼（Breitman）在接受Cointelegraph的讲话时指出，除了美国总统的贸易战计划外，加密货币的最大风险与其经济的“循环”性质有关。

"Within the industry, the main risk is that the industry is still very much in search of grounding. It's all still very circular."

“在行业内，主要风险是该行业仍在寻找基础。这仍然是非常循环的。”

"If you look at DeFi, for example, the point of finance is to finance something […], but if the only thing that DeFi finances is more DeFi, then that's circular."

“例如，如果您看一下defi，财务目的是为某些东西提供资金，但是，如果唯一的fefi财务状况更为偏见，那就是循环。”

This is in stark contrast to the stock market, which is "built on revenue-generating businesses," making the crypto industry’s “lack of grounding” one of the main industry threats, Breitman added.

Breitman补充说，这与股票市场形成鲜明对比，股市“建立在创收业务上”，这使得加密行业的“缺乏基础”是主要行业威胁之一。

Other industry insiders have also criticized the state of the crypto economy, specifically related to the latest memecoin meltdowns, which are siphoning liquidity from more established cryptocurrencies.

其他行业内部人士还批评了加密经济的状况，特别是与最新的Memecoin崩溃有关，这些崩溃是从更既定的加密货币中引发的流动性。

Solana was hit by over $485 million worth of outflows in February after the recent wave of memecoin rug pulls triggered an investor flight to "safety," with some of the capital flowing into memecoins on the BNB Chain, such as the Broccoli memecoin, inspired by the Changpeng Zhao's dog.

在最近的Memecoin地毯拉力拉动浪潮引发了“安全”的飞行之后，索拉纳（Solana）在2月遭受了价值超过4.85亿美元的流出，其中一些资本流入了BNB链上的Memecoins，例如BROCCOLI MEMECOIN，受到了Changpeng Zhao的狗的启发。

US recession fears are crypto's biggest external risk: Tezos co-founder

美国经济衰退的担忧是加密货币的最大外部风险：Tezos联合创始人

The cryptocurrency markets are still expected to be affected by several macroeconomic concerns, including a potential U.S. recession, which will hit both traditional and cryptocurrency traders.

仍然预计加密货币市场将受到一些宏观经济问题的影响，其中包括潜在的美国衰退，这将袭击传统和加密货币交易者。

"In terms of macro events, I still think we could see a recession," said Breitman, adding that such an event would affect the tech market, which in turn will influence crypto traders.

布雷特曼说：“就宏观事件而言，我仍然认为我们可以看到经济衰退。”他补充说，这样的事件会影响科技市场，这反过来会影响加密交易者。

Cryptocurrency markets still trade in significant correlation with tech stocks, meaning that a recession will cause a widespread sell-off, he added.

他补充说，加密货币市场仍与技术股票显着相关，这意味着经济衰退将导致广泛的抛售。

The current trade war concerns, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's import tariffs and continued retaliatory measures, have reignited concerns over a potential recession.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的进口关税和继续进行报复措施驱动的当前贸易战争问题已重新激发了人们对潜在衰退的担忧。

Over 40% of market participants expect a recession in the U.S. this year, up from just 22% a month ago on Feb. 17, according to the largest decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.

根据最大的分散预测市场Polymarket，超过40％的市场参与者预计今年的衰退今年的衰退，这一比例为2月17日的22％。