為什麼日本可以從比特幣中獲益良多

Jeff Park，Bitwise 的 Alpha 策略主管，該公司經營美國第四大現貨比特幣 ETF，管理資產總額為 2 美元

Bitcoin price has been rallying over the past week, fueled by anticipation of a new ETF approval and easing inflation concerns. Now, as the dust settles and BTC price consolidates around $54,000, one analysis argues that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be poised for a bullish pivot, thanks in part to Japan.

受新 ETF 批准預期和通膨擔憂緩解的推動，比特幣價格在過去一周一直上漲。現在，隨著塵埃落定，比特幣價格鞏固在 54,000 美元左右，一項分析認為，全球最大的加密貨幣可能會迎來看漲轉向，這在一定程度上要歸功於日本。

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Bitcoin price ties into historical economic decisionsHighlighting the significance of Bitcoin within the context of global economics, Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, which operates the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States with assets under management (AUM) totaling $2,039 billion, recently presented a bullish outlook on Bitcoin via Yahoo Finance X.

比特幣價格與歷史經濟決策密切相關 Bitwise 的 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 強調了比特幣在全球經濟背景下的重要性，該公司經營美國第四大現貨比特幣 ETF，管理資產 (AUM) 總計 2,039 美元最近透過Yahoo Finance X 提出了對比特幣的看漲前景。

In his analysis, Park contrasts the 2024 economic downturn with the crises of 2008 and 2020. While previous downturns had clear culprits or were due to extraordinary circumstances, the current situation involves complex international dynamics, primarily influenced by Japan’s economic policies.

Park 在分析中將2024 年的經濟衰退與2008 年和2020 年的危機進行了對比。主要受到日本經濟政策的影響。

“This current spiral of 2024 is seemingly led by Japan, which from the US perspective requires an international cooperation context in addition to its own domestic economic desires,” he noted.

他指出：“目前 2024 年的螺旋式增長似乎是由日本主導的，從美國的角度來看，除了其國內經濟願望之外，日本還需要國際合作環境。”

Delving deeper into the historical backdrop, Park highlighted the Plaza Accord of 1985, a crucial yet often overlooked event that reshaped global economic leadership by devaluing the dollar to curb Japan’s economic ascent.

朴槿惠更深入地探討了歷史背景，強調了1985 年的《廣場協議》，這是一項至關重要但經常被忽視的事件，它透過貶值美元來遏制日本經濟崛起，從而重塑了全球經濟領導地位。

“Contrary to popular Western myth, Japan didn’t mysteriously enter into ‘the lost decades’ of stagnation by itself randomly,” said the researcher.

「與流行的西方神話相反，日本並沒有隨機地神秘地進入『失去的幾十年』停滯狀態，」研究人員說。

Describing the accord as a strategic move by the United States to maintain economic dominance, he asserted that the accord led to Japan's long-term economic stagnation and initiated the so-called Carry Trade.

他將該協議描述為美國維持經濟主導地位的戰略舉措，並聲稱該協議導致日本經濟長期停滯，並引發了所謂的套利交易。

Criticizing the Federal Reserve's approach, Park emphasized that it is not solely focused on domestic objectives like unemployment and price stability but is also deeply intertwined with global economic conditions.

帕克在批評聯準會的做法時強調，聯準會不僅關注失業和物價穩定等國內目標，也與全球經濟狀況密切相關。

“The US cannot just cut rates on their own without offending the rest of the world. It has real ripple effects to a country like Japan,” he argued.

「美國不能在不冒犯世界其他國家的情況下自行降息。它對像日本這樣的國家產生了真正的連鎖反應，」他說。

Continuing his critique of the modern financial architecture, the researcher asserted that it has been characterized by decades of “artificial suppression and stealing,” particularly from Japan and the asset-poor younger generations.

這位研究人員繼續批評現代金融架構，聲稱其特點是幾十年來的“人為壓制和盜竊”，特別是來自日本和資產匱乏的年輕一代。

“This is about the very core of the modern financial architecture, with thirty years of pent-up artificial suppression and stealing—from the youth, from the asset-poor, and I’m going to make the case here—from Japan,” he stated.

「這關係到現代金融架構的核心，三十年來被壓抑的人為鎮壓和盜竊——從年輕人、從資產匱乏的人那裡，我將在這裡說明這一點——從日本，」他說。

Bitcoin price stands to benefit from financial inclusionAmid these criticisms, Park championed Bitcoin as a pivotal tool for financial inclusion, highlighting that while discussions often focus on emerging markets like Argentina and India, developed countries like Japan stand to gain significantly from Bitcoin.

比特幣價格將受益於金融包容性在這些批評中，Park 倡導比特幣作為金融包容性的關鍵工具，並強調雖然討論通常集中在阿根廷和印度等新興市場，但日本等發達國家將從比特幣中獲益匪淺。

According to Park, Bitcoin provides a unique opportunity for Japan to decouple its monetary policy from the influence of the United States dollar, addressing its structural leadership and demographic challenges.

Park 表示，比特幣為日本提供了一個獨特的機會，使其貨幣政策擺脫美元的影響，解決其結構性領導和人口挑戰。

Concluding his analysis, Park shared his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, predicting a significant revaluation in the wake of the current financial crisis, adding:

在總結分析時，Park 分享了他對比特幣的長期看漲立場，預測當前金融危機後比特幣將大幅重估，並補充說：

“Not today, and likely not tomorrow, but still much sooner than I expected in my own lifetime. This financial crisis is the mother crisis, the original sin – and it’s global, generational, geopolitical. Even without a global implosion, the narrative will be out and people will wake up to why BTC is valuable. Once the selling pressure ends, out of the ashes will emerge the most glorious phoenix the modern financial world has ever known—and rise, rise, rise we will.”

「不是今天，也可能不是明天，但仍然比我一生中預期的要早得多。這場金融危機是危機之母，是原罪──而且是全球性的、世代的、地緣政治性的。即使沒有全球性的內爆，故事也會被曝光，人們也會意識到比特幣為何有價值。一旦拋售壓力結束，現代金融世界有史以來最輝煌的鳳凰將從灰燼中重生——我們將會崛起、崛起、崛起。

At press time, BTC price trades at $55,066.

截至發稿時，BTC 價格交易價格為 55,066 美元。