Altcoin季節簡介

Altcoin季節通常被稱為“ Altseason”，是AltCoins在價格增長和市場優勢方面的表現優於比特幣的時期。

The term “altcoin season,” also known as “altseason,” refers to a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth and market dominance. This typically occurs as Bitcoin’s dominance decreases from its high levels, usually around 70%, paving the way for altcoins to gain traction and come into the spotlight in the cryptocurrency market.

“ Altcoin季節”一詞，也稱為“ Altseason”，是指Altcoins在價格增長和市場優勢方面的表現。這通常是因為比特幣的優勢從高水平降低，通常約為70％，這為山寨幣獲得吸引力並在加密貨幣市場中引起人們的關注鋪平了道路。

Here’s a breakdown of past altcoin seasons and the current market dynamics:

以下是過去的替代季季和當前市場動態的細分：

Historical Altcoin Seasons

歷史山寨賽季節

歷史山寨賽季節

Two significant periods of altcoin season occurred in recent times:

最近有兩個重要時期發生在近期：

1. March 2017 - January 2018: This 10-month span saw a substantial shift. From March 2017, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline rapidly, finally reaching 36% by January 2018. During this time, altcoins experienced a massive surge, increasing their collective market cap by $470 billion. In comparison, at the beginning of 2017, the total market cap for altcoins was around $30 billion, but by January 2018, it reached nearly $500 billion. This surge was driven by a rapid increase in altcoin prices and trading activity.

2017年3月1日至2018年1月：這個10個月的跨度發生了很大的轉變。從2017年3月開始，比特幣的統治地位開始迅速下降，最終到2018年1月達到36％。在此期間，Altcoins經歷了巨大的激增，其集體市值增加了4700億美元。相比之下，在2017年初，Altcoins的總市值約為300億美元，但到2018年1月，它達到了近5000億美元。這次激增是由山寨幣價格和交易活動迅速上漲的驅動。

2. Bitcoin’s fourth cycle, which peaked in November 2021: After the U.S. government began cutting interest rates in 2020 due to the pandemic, paving the way for a period of low-interest rates and increased liquidity. This macroeconomic shift, together with government stimulus measures, had a notable impact on cryptocurrency markets. As a result, altcoins witnessed significant growth, and the TOTAL2 index reached $1.5 trillion. This apex spanned 309 days and saw the index increase by 650%.

2.比特幣的第四個週期，該週期在2021年11月達到頂峰：由於大流行，美國政府在2020年開始降低利率之後，為低息率和流動性增加的時期鋪平了道路。這種宏觀經濟的轉變以及政府刺激措施對加密貨幣市場產生了顯著影響。結果，Altcoins的增長顯著，總計2個指數達到1.5萬億美元。該頂點跨越了309天，指數增加了650％。

Key Indicators of Altcoin Season

Altcoin季節的主要指標

Altcoin季節的主要指標

Several factors can indicate an upcoming altcoin season:

幾個因素可能表明即將到來的山寨幣季節：

1. Bitcoin Dominance: A key indicator is the decline in Bitcoin dominance. Typically, when Bitcoin stabilizes at higher price levels after a substantial increase, capital begins flowing into altcoins, leading to their outperformance.

1。比特幣優勢：一個關鍵指標是比特幣優勢的下降。通常，當比特幣大幅增加後，比特幣以較高的價格穩定時，資本開始流入山寨幣，從而導致其表現出色。

2. Rising Trading Volumes: A surge in trading volumes for altcoins indicates rising investor interest and liquidity, which can precede an altcoin season.

2。貿易量的上升：Altcoins的交易量增加表明投資者的利息和流動性上升，這可以在Altcoin季節之前進行。

3. Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate cuts and global liquidity trends can act as catalysts for altcoin season. Lower interest rates make capital cheaper, encouraging investments in higher-risk assets like altcoins. In contrast, rising interest rates usually favor safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds.

3。宏觀經濟因素：降低利率降低和全球流動性趨勢可以充當Altcoin季節的催化劑。較低的利率使資本更便宜，鼓勵對山寨幣等高風險資產進行投資。相比之下，利率上升通常有利於諸如美國政府債券之類的安全資產。

Current Market Dynamics

當前的市場動態

當前的市場動態

Several factors will influence the possibility of an altcoin season in the coming months:

幾個因素將影響未來幾個月的Altcoin季節的可能性：

1. Global liquidity is rebounding, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and improving financial conditions, setting the stage for a return of risk-on trades.

1。全球流動性正在反彈，這是由於美元較弱並改善財務狀況的驅動，為風險交易的回報奠定了基礎。

2. Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more supportive of cryptocurrencies, which could act as a tailwind for altcoins.

2。美國的監管變化越來越支持加密貨幣，這可以作為山寨幣的逆風。

3. However, the explosion in token supply and reduced venture capital funding are fragmenting liquidity, making it harder for one asset class to quickly outperform others.

3。但是，代幣供應和減少風險資本資金的爆炸正在使流動性分散，這使一個資產類別更難快速勝過其他資產。

4. On-chain metrics such as active users and transaction counts remain weak, suggesting that a new crypto cycle is still in the early stages and a busy altcoin season might be delayed.

4。主動用戶和交易計數等鍊鍊指標仍然很弱，這表明新的加密週期仍處於早期階段，並且繁忙的AltCoin季節可能會延遲。

While altseason isn’t guaranteed in every market cycle, historical patterns and current indicators provide insights into potential future trends. Investors should continue to monitor key indicators such as Bitcoin dominance, trading volumes, and macroeconomic factors to anticipate the next altcoin season. Despite the challenges posed by varying market cycles and the U.S. regulatory landscape, the overall environment is becoming more supportive of cryptocurrencies, offering hope for altcoins to gain momentum in the near future.

儘管在每個市場週期都不能保證Altseason，但歷史模式和當前指標提供了對潛在未來趨勢的見解。投資者應繼續監視關鍵指標，例如比特幣優勢，交易量和宏觀經濟因素，以預測下一個替代幣季節。儘管市場週期和美國監管局勢構成的挑戰，但整個環境正在越來越支持加密貨幣，這為Altcoins提供了希望在不久的將來獲得動力的希望。