Altcoin季节简介

Altcoin季节通常被称为“ Altseason”，是AltCoins在价格增长和市场优势方面的表现优于比特币的时期。

The term “altcoin season,” also known as “altseason,” refers to a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth and market dominance. This typically occurs as Bitcoin’s dominance decreases from its high levels, usually around 70%, paving the way for altcoins to gain traction and come into the spotlight in the cryptocurrency market.

“ Altcoin季节”一词，也称为“ Altseason”，是指Altcoins在价格增长和市场优势方面的表现。这通常是因为比特币的优势从高水平降低，通常约为70％，这为山寨币获得吸引力并在加密货币市场中引起人们的关注铺平了道路。

Here’s a breakdown of past altcoin seasons and the current market dynamics:

以下是过去的替代季季和当前市场动态的细分：

Historical Altcoin Seasons

历史山寨赛季节

历史山寨赛季节

Two significant periods of altcoin season occurred in recent times:

最近有两个重要时期发生在近期：

1. March 2017 - January 2018: This 10-month span saw a substantial shift. From March 2017, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline rapidly, finally reaching 36% by January 2018. During this time, altcoins experienced a massive surge, increasing their collective market cap by $470 billion. In comparison, at the beginning of 2017, the total market cap for altcoins was around $30 billion, but by January 2018, it reached nearly $500 billion. This surge was driven by a rapid increase in altcoin prices and trading activity.

2017年3月1日至2018年1月：这个10个月的跨度发生了很大的转变。从2017年3月开始，比特币的统治地位开始迅速下降，最终到2018年1月达到36％。在此期间，Altcoins经历了巨大的激增，其集体市值增加了4700亿美元。相比之下，在2017年初，Altcoins的总市值约为300亿美元，但到2018年1月，它达到了近5000亿美元。这次激增是由山寨币价格和交易活动迅速上涨的驱动。

2. Bitcoin’s fourth cycle, which peaked in November 2021: After the U.S. government began cutting interest rates in 2020 due to the pandemic, paving the way for a period of low-interest rates and increased liquidity. This macroeconomic shift, together with government stimulus measures, had a notable impact on cryptocurrency markets. As a result, altcoins witnessed significant growth, and the TOTAL2 index reached $1.5 trillion. This apex spanned 309 days and saw the index increase by 650%.

2.比特币的第四个周期，该周期在2021年11月达到顶峰：由于大流行，美国政府在2020年开始降低利率之后，为低息率和流动性增加的时期铺平了道路。这种宏观经济的转变以及政府刺激措施对加密货币市场产生了显着影响。结果，Altcoins的增长显着，总计2个指数达到1.5万亿美元。该顶点跨越了309天，指数增加了650％。

Key Indicators of Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节的主要指标

Altcoin季节的主要指标

Several factors can indicate an upcoming altcoin season:

几个因素可能表明即将到来的山寨币季节：

1. Bitcoin Dominance: A key indicator is the decline in Bitcoin dominance. Typically, when Bitcoin stabilizes at higher price levels after a substantial increase, capital begins flowing into altcoins, leading to their outperformance.

1。比特币优势：一个关键指标是比特币优势的下降。通常，当比特币大幅增加后，比特币以较高的价格稳定时，资本开始流入山寨币，从而导致其表现出色。

2. Rising Trading Volumes: A surge in trading volumes for altcoins indicates rising investor interest and liquidity, which can precede an altcoin season.

2。贸易量的上升：Altcoins的交易量增加表明投资者的利息和流动性上升，这可以在Altcoin季节之前进行。

3. Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate cuts and global liquidity trends can act as catalysts for altcoin season. Lower interest rates make capital cheaper, encouraging investments in higher-risk assets like altcoins. In contrast, rising interest rates usually favor safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds.

3。宏观经济因素：降低利率降低和全球流动性趋势可以充当Altcoin季节的催化剂。较低的利率使资本更便宜，鼓励对山寨币等高风险资产进行投资。相比之下，利率上升通常有利于诸如美国政府债券之类的安全资产。

Current Market Dynamics

当前的市场动态

当前的市场动态

Several factors will influence the possibility of an altcoin season in the coming months:

几个因素将影响未来几个月的Altcoin季节的可能性：

1. Global liquidity is rebounding, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and improving financial conditions, setting the stage for a return of risk-on trades.

1。全球流动性正在反弹，这是由于美元较弱并改善财务状况的驱动，为风险交易的回报奠定了基础。

2. Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more supportive of cryptocurrencies, which could act as a tailwind for altcoins.

2。美国的监管变化越来越支持加密货币，这可以作为山寨币的逆风。

3. However, the explosion in token supply and reduced venture capital funding are fragmenting liquidity, making it harder for one asset class to quickly outperform others.

3。但是，代币供应和减少风险资本资金的爆炸正在使流动性分散，这使一个资产类别更难快速胜过其他资产。

4. On-chain metrics such as active users and transaction counts remain weak, suggesting that a new crypto cycle is still in the early stages and a busy altcoin season might be delayed.

4。主动用户和交易计数等链链指标仍然很弱，这表明新的加密周期仍处于早期阶段，并且繁忙的AltCoin季节可能会延迟。

While altseason isn’t guaranteed in every market cycle, historical patterns and current indicators provide insights into potential future trends. Investors should continue to monitor key indicators such as Bitcoin dominance, trading volumes, and macroeconomic factors to anticipate the next altcoin season. Despite the challenges posed by varying market cycles and the U.S. regulatory landscape, the overall environment is becoming more supportive of cryptocurrencies, offering hope for altcoins to gain momentum in the near future.

尽管在每个市场周期都不能保证Altseason，但历史模式和当前指标提供了对潜在未来趋势的见解。投资者应继续监视关键指标，例如比特币优势，交易量和宏观经济因素，以预测下一个替代币季节。尽管市场周期和美国监管局势构成的挑战，但整个环境正在越来越支持加密货币，这为Altcoins提供了希望在不久的将来获得动力的希望。