機構見解：2024 年 9 月 23 日

我們每週的機構洞察探討最新的市場發展——市場表現、行業新聞、交易所交易基金（ETF）流動、趨勢主題、即將發生的事件和代幣解鎖——幫助您增強加密貨幣交易。

Our weekly Institutional Insights dives into the latest market developments — from market performance and industry news to exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

我們每週的機構洞察深入了解最新的市場發展——從市場表現和行業新聞到交易所交易基金(ETF) 流量、趨勢主題、即將發生的事件和代幣解鎖——以幫助您增強加密貨幣交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我們每週對市場的看法！

Macro Overview — Market Cheers for 50 bps Cut

宏觀概覽－市場為降息 50 個基點歡呼

Source: Bloomberg

資料來源：彭博社

Crypto traders might be cheering on Wall Street traders after the Fed Chair's announcement of a half-point interest rate cut led to bullish sentiment in the markets. But as the Federal Reserve pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. stocks reached record highs, supported by a robust labor market, but concerns about valuations pose a significant challenge.

在聯準會主席宣布降息半個百分點導致市場看漲情緒之後，加密貨幣交易員可能會為華爾街交易員歡呼。但隨著聯準會轉向更溫和的立場，在強勁的勞動市場的支撐下，美國股市創下歷史新高，但對估值的擔憂構成了重大挑戰。

Currently, market valuations are notably high, posing the risk of a correction if economic conditions shift unfavorably. Despite the rally, analysts warn that any major disappointment from major tech companies or an unexpected increase in inflation could negatively impact valuations.

目前，市場估值非常高，如果經濟狀況發生不利變化，則有調整的風險。儘管股價上漲，但分析師警告稱，大型科技公司的任何重大失望或通膨意外上升都可能對估值產生負面影響。

This year, the S&P 500 has shown strong returns, but many stock valuation metrics, such as the Buffett Indicator, are at record highs, questioning sustainability as earnings growth must justify these high valuations. Moreover, while bond traders anticipate more aggressive interest rate cuts than the Fed, the economic data does not strongly support such measures.

今年，標準普爾 500 指數顯示了強勁的回報，但許多股票估值指標（例如巴菲特指標）均處於歷史高位，可持續性受到質疑，因為盈利增長必須證明這些高估值是合理的。此外，儘管債券交易員預計降息幅度會比聯準會更為激進，但經濟數據並沒有強烈支持此類措施。

Overall, despite the bullish market momentum, many strategists express caution, suggesting that the potential for a downturn remains significant, alongside a general sense of investor fear.

總體而言，儘管市場勢頭看漲，但許多策略師表示謹慎，表明經濟低迷的可能性仍然很大，同時投資者普遍感到恐懼。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — Trump Introduces World Liberty Financial

每週加密亮點－川普推出世界自由金融

A few months ago, the U.S. government targeted crypto projects, and now the former President is launching one. On September 16, 2024, Donald Trump introduced World Liberty Financial (WLFI) during a two-hour X Spaces session.

幾個月前，美國政府瞄準了加密項目，現在前總統正在啟動一個項目。 2024 年 9 月 16 日，唐納德·川普在兩小時的 X Spaces 會議上介紹了世界自由金融 (WLFI)。

Trump's sons — Donald Jr., Eric and Barron — are at the forefront, with technical operations being led by Dough Finance co-founders Zachary Folkman and Chase Herro. Notably advising the team are Sandy Peng from Scroll and Luke Pearson from Polychain.

川普的兒子小唐納德、埃里克和巴倫處於最前沿，技術運營由 Dough Finance 聯合創始人扎卡里·福克曼 (Zachary Folkman) 和蔡斯·赫羅 (Chase Herro) 領導。值得注意的是，為該團隊提供建議的是 Scroll 的 Sandy Peng 和來自 Polychain 的 Luke Pearson。

Details about the project are still vague, but it seems that WLFI aims to create a user-friendly DeFi interface, collaborating with Aave for lending services and possibly introducing a dollar-pegged stablecoin. The WLFI token will be available only to accredited investors, with 63% of the supply being allocated for public sale.

有關該項目的細節仍然模糊，但 WLFI 的目標似乎是創建一個用戶友好的 DeFi 介面，與 Aave 合作提供借貸服務，並可能推出與美元掛鉤的穩定幣。 WLFI 代幣僅對合格投資者開放，其中 63% 的供應將用於公開銷售。

Skepticism arises as to why Trump is pursuing this venture amid his campaign. The Biden administration has been critical of crypto, and some view this as a cash grab, especially since the project is rumored to be linked to the recently hacked Dough Finance.

人們對川普為何在競選期間尋求這項冒險表示懷疑。拜登政府一直對加密貨幣持批評態度，有些人認為這是一種搶錢行為，特別是因為有傳言稱該項目與最近遭到駭客攻擊的 Dough Finance 有關。

While the initiative could attract new interest in crypto, the team needs to clarify its purpose. For now, limited information is available, but updates can be followed through its X and Telegram accounts.

雖然該舉措可能會吸引人們對加密貨幣的新興趣，但團隊需要澄清其目的。目前，可用資訊有限，但可以透過其 X 和 Telegram 帳戶追蹤更新。

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

比特幣現貨 ETF 流量

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows. Source: CoinGlass, as of Sep 20, 2024

比特幣現貨 ETF 總流量。資料來源：CoinGlass，截至 2024 年 9 月 20 日

Strong inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs on Friday coincided with a remarkable surge in Bitcoin’s price, which has climbed above $64,000. This uptick follows the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points last Wednesday, which sent ripples throughout financial markets.

週五，大量資金流入比特幣現貨 ETF，同時比特幣價格也大幅飆升，已攀升至 64,000 美元以上。上週三，聯準會出人意料地決定降息 50 個基點，此舉在整個金融市場引發了連鎖反應。

The combination of the Fed's rate cut and the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin Spot ETFs have created a perfect storm for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Investors often perceive lower interest rates as an opportunity to seek higher returns in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to increased demand.

聯準會降息和圍繞比特幣現貨 ETF 的積極情緒相結合，為全球最大的加密貨幣創造了一場完美風暴。投資者通常將較低的利率視為在比特幣等風險較高的資產中尋求更高回報的機會，從而導致需求增加。

Other Top Performing Tokens

其他表現最佳的代幣

Token

代幣

Catalyst

催化劑

AltLayer (ALT)

替代層 (ALT)

ALT surged 17.8% following news of AltLayer's partnership with Trestle Protocol to launch a modular rollup chain. Read more here.

在 AltLayer 與 Trestle Protocol 合作推出模組化 Rollup 鏈的消息傳出後，ALT 飆升 17.8%。在這裡閱讀更多內容。