美國對2月的通貨膨脹期望

美國市場急切地等待2025年的第二次通貨膨脹報告。該報告計劃於今天發布。

The US market is eagerly awaiting the second inflation report of 2025, scheduled for release today. Analysts predict a slight drop in both headline and core inflation. If confirmed, this would be the first time since July 2024 that both inflation indicators have declined.

美國市場正急切地等待2025年的第二次通貨膨脹報告，該報告計劃於今天發布。分析師預測，標題和核心通脹的略有下降。如果得到確認，這將是自2024年7月以來這兩個通貨膨脹指標都下降的第一次。

In January 2025, the core inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 3.2% in February. According to TEForecast, a more pronounced reduction from 3.3% to 3.1% is anticipated.

2025年1月，核心通貨膨脹率從3.2％上升到3.3％。共識是在二月份略微降低到3.2％。根據Teforecast的說法，預計將從3.3％降低到3.1％。

After rising from 2.9% to 3% in January 2025, the US inflation rate is predicted to drop slightly from 3% to 2.9%.

在2025年1月從2.9％上升到3％後，預計美國通貨膨脹率將從3％略微下降到2.9％。

If confirmed, this would be the first time both inflation indicators decline after a period of consistent increases.

如果得到確認，這將是一致增加後兩種通貨膨脹指標首次下降。

In July 2024, the core inflation rate dropped from 3.3% to 3.2%, while the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9%.

2024年7月，核心通貨膨脹率從3.3％下降到3.2％，而美國通貨膨脹率從3％下降到2.9％。

Since September 2024, the US inflation rate has been steadily rising. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate increased from 3.2% to 3.3% in September and remained at the same level for the next two months before dropping to 3.2% from 3.3% in December.

自2024年9月以來，美國通貨膨脹率一直在穩步上升。同時，核心通貨膨脹率從9月的3.2％增加到3.3％，在接下來的兩個月中一直保持在同一水平，然後從12月的3.3％下降到3.2％。

Kalshi traders are largely optimistic about a decrease in inflation, predicting a decline to 2.9%. Notably, Kalshi traders have accurately predicted at least six of the last eight CPI numbers.

Kalshi交易者在很大程度上對通貨膨脹率下降非常樂觀，預計下降到2.9％。值得注意的是，Kalshi交易者已經準確地預測了最近八個CPI數字中的六個。

US President Donald Trump recently imposed import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. These aggressive trade policies have resulted in retaliatory tariffs and brought the global economy to the brink of a disastrous trade war.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近對中國，加拿大和墨西哥徵收進口關稅。這些積極的貿易政策導致了報復性關稅，並使全球經濟陷入了災難性的貿易戰爭的邊緣。

Today’s inflation report will be the first to reflect inflation under Trump’s trade policies, which could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

今天的通貨膨脹報告將是第一個反映特朗普貿易政策下通貨膨脹的報告，這可能會對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。

If inflation cools down as predicted, it could affect the crypto market in several ways. A cooling inflation rate increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy, potentially leading to lower interest rates. This could create a more favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos, driving investor confidence. However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies might cause crypto to experience heightened volatility, as global economic instability often pushes investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

如果通貨膨脹如預期的那樣冷靜下來，它可能會以多種方式影響加密貨幣市場。冷卻通貨膨脹率增加了美聯儲緩解貨幣政策的可能性，這可能導致利率降低。這可能會為諸如加密貨幣之類的風險資產創造一個更有利的環境，使投資者信心。但是，圍繞特朗普的貿易政策的不確定性可能會導致加密貨幣的波動性更高，因為全球經濟不穩定經常將投資者推向諸如黃金之類的安全資產。

If inflation remains high despite expectations for a decline, the Fed may maintain a tight monetary policy, placing pressure on the broader financial and crypto markets.

如果通貨膨脹率仍然很高，儘管預期會下降，那麼美聯儲可能會保持嚴格的貨幣政策，從而對更廣泛的金融和加密市場施加壓力。