美国对2月的通货膨胀期望

美国市场急切地等待2025年的第二次通货膨胀报告。该报告计划于今天发布。

The US market is eagerly awaiting the second inflation report of 2025, scheduled for release today. Analysts predict a slight drop in both headline and core inflation. If confirmed, this would be the first time since July 2024 that both inflation indicators have declined.

美国市场正急切地等待2025年的第二次通货膨胀报告，该报告计划于今天发布。分析师预测，标题和核心通胀的略有下降。如果得到确认，这将是自2024年7月以来这两个通货膨胀指标都下降的第一次。

In January 2025, the core inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 3.2% in February. According to TEForecast, a more pronounced reduction from 3.3% to 3.1% is anticipated.

2025年1月，核心通货膨胀率从3.2％上升到3.3％。共识是在二月份略微降低到3.2％。根据Teforecast的说法，预计将从3.3％降低到3.1％。

After rising from 2.9% to 3% in January 2025, the US inflation rate is predicted to drop slightly from 3% to 2.9%.

在2025年1月从2.9％上升到3％后，预计美国通货膨胀率将从3％略微下降到2.9％。

If confirmed, this would be the first time both inflation indicators decline after a period of consistent increases.

如果得到确认，这将是一致增加后两种通货膨胀指标首次下降。

In July 2024, the core inflation rate dropped from 3.3% to 3.2%, while the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9%.

2024年7月，核心通货膨胀率从3.3％下降到3.2％，而美国通货膨胀率从3％下降到2.9％。

Since September 2024, the US inflation rate has been steadily rising. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate increased from 3.2% to 3.3% in September and remained at the same level for the next two months before dropping to 3.2% from 3.3% in December.

自2024年9月以来，美国通货膨胀率一直在稳步上升。同时，核心通货膨胀率从9月的3.2％增加到3.3％，在接下来的两个月中一直保持在同一水平，然后从12月的3.3％下降到3.2％。

Kalshi traders are largely optimistic about a decrease in inflation, predicting a decline to 2.9%. Notably, Kalshi traders have accurately predicted at least six of the last eight CPI numbers.

Kalshi交易者在很大程度上对通货膨胀率下降非常乐观，预计下降到2.9％。值得注意的是，Kalshi交易者已经准确地预测了最近八个CPI数字中的六个。

US President Donald Trump recently imposed import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. These aggressive trade policies have resulted in retaliatory tariffs and brought the global economy to the brink of a disastrous trade war.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近对中国，加拿大和墨西哥征收进口关税。这些积极的贸易政策导致了报复性关税，并使全球经济陷入了灾难性的贸易战争的边缘。

Today’s inflation report will be the first to reflect inflation under Trump’s trade policies, which could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

今天的通货膨胀报告将是第一个反映特朗普贸易政策下通货膨胀的报告，这可能会对加密货币市场产生重大影响。

If inflation cools down as predicted, it could affect the crypto market in several ways. A cooling inflation rate increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy, potentially leading to lower interest rates. This could create a more favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos, driving investor confidence. However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies might cause crypto to experience heightened volatility, as global economic instability often pushes investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

如果通货膨胀如预期的那样冷静下来，它可能会以多种方式影响加密货币市场。冷却通货膨胀率增加了美联储缓解货币政策的可能性，这可能导致利率降低。这可能会为诸如加密货币之类的风险资产创造一个更有利的环境，使投资者信心。但是，围绕特朗普的贸易政策的不确定性可能会导致加密货币的波动性更高，因为全球经济不稳定经常将投资者推向诸如黄金之类的安全资产。

If inflation remains high despite expectations for a decline, the Fed may maintain a tight monetary policy, placing pressure on the broader financial and crypto markets.

如果通货膨胀率仍然很高，尽管预期会下降，那么美联储可能会保持严格的货币政策，从而对更广泛的金融和加密市场施加压力。