在關鍵的美聯儲決定之前幾個小時，傳統市場凍結。與此相反，加密貨幣市場還活著。

與此相反，加密貨幣市場還活著。在華爾街屏住呼吸的同時，比特幣交易員正在增加其長位置，押注有利的情況。

Just hours before a pivotal decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates, traditional markets appear to be entering a holding pattern. However, in a stark contrast, the crypto market is displaying signs of lively activity.

在美國美聯儲對利率的關鍵決定之前的幾個小時，傳統市場似乎正在進入持有模式。但是，與之形成鮮明對比的是，加密貨幣市場正在展示活潑活動的跡象。

While Wall Street is holding its breath ahead of the Fed's verdict, bitcoin traders have been observed to be piling up long positions, making a bold bet on a favorable scenario.

當華爾街在美聯儲的判決前屏住呼吸時，已經觀察到比特幣交易員正在堆積長位置，在有利的情況下大膽地押注。

This agitation goes beyond a simple technical wager. It reflects an aggressive strategy in a context of monetary uncertainty.

這種攪動超出了簡單的技術賭注。它反映了在貨幣不確定性的背景下的一種積極策略。

While the Fed is about to decide on its rates, the crypto market already seems positioned, ready to capitalize on any shift in the economic outlook.

儘管美聯儲即將決定其利率，但加密貨幣市場似乎已經定位，準備利用經濟前景的任何轉變。

The bullish bet before the verdict

判決前的看漲賭注

Since May 6, the bitcoin market has shown clear signs of strategic accumulation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision. Its price has stabilized around $96,800, a level identified as a support zone by several analysts.

自5月6日以來，比特幣市場在美國美聯儲的決定之前表現出明確的戰略積累跡象。它的價格穩定在96,800美元左右，這是幾位分析師確定為支持區的水平。

Axel Adler Jr., derivatives market specialist, observed on May 6, 2025 on the social network X (formerly Twitter) the emergence of a “bullish cluster of long positions” at this threshold, reminiscent of a similar movement that occurred at the end of April, which then propelled bitcoin up to $97,500.

衍生品市場專家阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.

This concentration of positions reveals a clear willingness among leveraged investors to take positions before the Fed decides on interest rate levels.

這種立場的集中度表明，在美聯儲決定利率水平之前，槓桿投資者有明顯的意願。

Such positioning is accompanied by sharply rising technical indicators, highlighting the intensity of the bullish commitment. Here are some important data:

這種定位伴隨著急劇上升的技術指標，強調了看漲承諾的強度。這是一些重要數據：

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, founder of VeloMN Capital, also sees this rebound as a positive signal for the coming days. He stated on May 6 on X: “I think we will continue the upward move on bitcoin. The key factor here is to see if gold starts to correct after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, which would indicate the start of the economic cycle.”

Velomn Capital的創始人分析師MichaëlVande Poppe也將這種反彈視為未來幾天的正信號。他在5月6日在X上說：“我認為我們將繼續對比特幣進行上升。這裡的關鍵因素是看看明天的聯邦頻道會議之後黃金是否開始糾正，這表明經濟周期的開始。”

This setup shows that bitcoin bulls are not just anticipating a decision, but are already playing out the macroeconomic scenario ahead.

該設置表明，比特幣公牛不僅預料到一個決定，而且已經在探討了未來的宏觀經濟方案。

The Fed, a catalyst for programmed volatility?

美聯儲，編程波動率的催化劑？

Beyond recent technical moves, it is the historical correlation between Fed decisions and bitcoin behavior that catches analysts’ attention. According to Swissblock, a firm specializing in crypto management, bitcoin’s momentum systematically slows in the days preceding a monetary policy decision, then becomes extremely volatile shortly after.

除了最近的技術動作之外，正是美聯儲決策與比特幣行為之間的歷史相關性引起了分析師的關注。根據專門從事加密管理的公司Swissblock的說法，比特幣在貨幣政策決策之前的日子裡有系統地減慢了，然後不久之後就變得極為波動。

In an analysis published on X, the firm shows that this effect is recurring:

在X上發布的分析中，該公司表明這種效果反復出現：

During the last five Fed meetings, the bitcoin price stagnated or dropped slightly before the announcement, then recorded strong volatility in the 48 hours following.

在過去的五次美聯儲會議上，比特幣價格在宣布之前停滯不前或略有下降，然後在後48小時內記錄了強烈的波動性。

The 25-day Rate of Change (ROC), an indicator followed by Swissblock, is currently in a bullish phase, suggesting possible positive momentum for BTC, provided Jerome Powell’s speech does not cool market enthusiasm.

25天的變化率（ROC）是一個指標，其次是瑞士岩，目前處於看漲階段，這表明BTC可能會積極勢頭，前提是杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的講話不會散發出市場熱情。

This type of setup increases the importance of timing for traders. It reflects a certain structural hesitation, typical of periods when macroeconomic algorithmic models adjust according to institutional tone. More than a potential rate change, it is therefore the tone used by Jerome Powell in his press conference that will be scrutinized.

這種類型的設置增加了時間對交易者的重要性。它反映了一定的結構猶豫，這是宏觀經濟算法模型根據制度基調調整的典型時期。因此，不僅有可能改變的速度變化，還將審查杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在新聞發布會上使用的語氣。

A speech deemed too cautious could stifle the momentum observed on bitcoin, while a message of stability or economic resilience could, on the contrary, serve as a springboard for a new bullish surge.

被認為太謹慎的演講可以扼殺在比特幣上觀察到的動力，而穩定或經濟韌性的信息可能是新看漲激增的跳板。

In this context, the news around the Fed goes beyond its direct impact on crypto prices. It acts as a revealing indicator of the growing dependency of these assets on traditional macroeconomic cycles. Today’s meeting could therefore influence the immediate trajectory of BTC, but also partly redefine how investors perceive the decoupling between crypto and traditional finance. The coming days promise to be decisive, at the crossroads of speculative dynamics and monetary fundamentals.

在這種情況下，美聯儲周圍的消息超出了其對加密價格的直接影響。它充當了這些資產對傳統宏觀經濟周期不斷增長的依賴性的揭示。因此，今天的會議可能會影響BTC的直接軌跡，但也部分重新定義了投資者如何看待加密貨幣與傳統金融之間的解耦。在投機性動態和貨幣基本面的十字路口，接下來的幾天有望是決定性的。