在关键的美联储决定之前几个小时，传统市场冻结。与此相反，加密货币市场还活着。

与此相反，加密货币市场还活着。在华尔街屏住呼吸的同时，比特币交易员正在增加其长位置，押注有利的情况。

Just hours before a pivotal decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates, traditional markets appear to be entering a holding pattern. However, in a stark contrast, the crypto market is displaying signs of lively activity.

在美国美联储对利率的关键决定之前的几个小时，传统市场似乎正在进入持有模式。但是，与之形成鲜明对比的是，加密货币市场正在展示活泼活动的迹象。

While Wall Street is holding its breath ahead of the Fed's verdict, bitcoin traders have been observed to be piling up long positions, making a bold bet on a favorable scenario.

当华尔街在美联储的判决前屏住呼吸时，已经观察到比特币交易员正在堆积长位置，在有利的情况下大胆地押注。

This agitation goes beyond a simple technical wager. It reflects an aggressive strategy in a context of monetary uncertainty.

这种搅动超出了简单的技术赌注。它反映了在货币不确定性的背景下的一种积极策略。

While the Fed is about to decide on its rates, the crypto market already seems positioned, ready to capitalize on any shift in the economic outlook.

尽管美联储即将决定其利率，但加密货币市场似乎已经定位，准备利用经济前景的任何转变。

The bullish bet before the verdict

判决前的看涨赌注

Since May 6, the bitcoin market has shown clear signs of strategic accumulation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision. Its price has stabilized around $96,800, a level identified as a support zone by several analysts.

自5月6日以来，比特币市场在美国美联储的决定之前表现出明确的战略积累迹象。它的价格稳定在96,800美元左右，这是几位分析师确定为支持区的水平。

Axel Adler Jr., derivatives market specialist, observed on May 6, 2025 on the social network X (formerly Twitter) the emergence of a “bullish cluster of long positions” at this threshold, reminiscent of a similar movement that occurred at the end of April, which then propelled bitcoin up to $97,500.

衍生品市场专家阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.

This concentration of positions reveals a clear willingness among leveraged investors to take positions before the Fed decides on interest rate levels.

这种立场的集中度表明，在美联储决定利率水平之前，杠杆投资者有明显的意愿。

Such positioning is accompanied by sharply rising technical indicators, highlighting the intensity of the bullish commitment. Here are some important data:

这种定位伴随着急剧上升的技术指标，强调了看涨承诺的强度。这是一些重要数据：

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, founder of VeloMN Capital, also sees this rebound as a positive signal for the coming days. He stated on May 6 on X: “I think we will continue the upward move on bitcoin. The key factor here is to see if gold starts to correct after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, which would indicate the start of the economic cycle.”

Velomn Capital的创始人分析师MichaëlVande Poppe也将这种反弹视为未来几天的正信号。他在5月6日在X上说：“我认为我们将继续对比特币进行上升。这里的关键因素是看看明天的联邦频道会议之后黄金是否开始纠正，这表明经济周期的开始。”

This setup shows that bitcoin bulls are not just anticipating a decision, but are already playing out the macroeconomic scenario ahead.

该设置表明，比特币公牛不仅预料到一个决定，而且已经在探讨了未来的宏观经济方案。

The Fed, a catalyst for programmed volatility?

美联储，编程波动率的催化剂？

Beyond recent technical moves, it is the historical correlation between Fed decisions and bitcoin behavior that catches analysts’ attention. According to Swissblock, a firm specializing in crypto management, bitcoin’s momentum systematically slows in the days preceding a monetary policy decision, then becomes extremely volatile shortly after.

除了最近的技术动作之外，正是美联储决策与比特币行为之间的历史相关性引起了分析师的关注。根据专门从事加密管理的公司Swissblock的说法，比特币在货币政策决策之前的日子里有系统地减慢了，然后不久之后就变得极为波动。

In an analysis published on X, the firm shows that this effect is recurring:

在X上发布的分析中，该公司表明这种效果反复出现：

During the last five Fed meetings, the bitcoin price stagnated or dropped slightly before the announcement, then recorded strong volatility in the 48 hours following.

在过去的五次美联储会议上，比特币价格在宣布之前停滞不前或略有下降，然后在后48小时内记录了强烈的波动性。

The 25-day Rate of Change (ROC), an indicator followed by Swissblock, is currently in a bullish phase, suggesting possible positive momentum for BTC, provided Jerome Powell’s speech does not cool market enthusiasm.

25天的变化率（ROC）是一个指标，其次是瑞士岩，目前处于看涨阶段，这表明BTC可能会积极势头，前提是杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的讲话不会散发出市场热情。

This type of setup increases the importance of timing for traders. It reflects a certain structural hesitation, typical of periods when macroeconomic algorithmic models adjust according to institutional tone. More than a potential rate change, it is therefore the tone used by Jerome Powell in his press conference that will be scrutinized.

这种类型的设置增加了时间对交易者的重要性。它反映了一定的结构犹豫，这是宏观经济算法模型根据制度基调调整的典型时期。因此，不仅有可能改变的速度变化，还将审查杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在新闻发布会上使用的语气。

A speech deemed too cautious could stifle the momentum observed on bitcoin, while a message of stability or economic resilience could, on the contrary, serve as a springboard for a new bullish surge.

被认为太谨慎的演讲可以扼杀在比特币上观察到的动力，而稳定或经济韧性的信息可能是新看涨激增的跳板。

In this context, the news around the Fed goes beyond its direct impact on crypto prices. It acts as a revealing indicator of the growing dependency of these assets on traditional macroeconomic cycles. Today’s meeting could therefore influence the immediate trajectory of BTC, but also partly redefine how investors perceive the decoupling between crypto and traditional finance. The coming days promise to be decisive, at the crossroads of speculative dynamics and monetary fundamentals.

在这种情况下，美联储周围的消息超出了其对加密价格的直接影响。它充当了这些资产对传统宏观经济周期不断增长的依赖性的揭示。因此，今天的会议可能会影响BTC的直接轨迹，但也部分重新定义了投资者如何看待加密货币与传统金融之间的解耦。在投机性动态和货币基本面的十字路口，接下来的几天有望是决定性的。