黃金價格預測：在地緣政治動盪中導航記錄高

截至2025年4月13日，黃金已經飆升至前所未有的水平，期貨定居於每盎司3,240美元左右。

Gold futures rose on Thursday amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and a mixed reading on U.S. inflation.

由於烏克蘭正在進行的地緣政治動盪以及對美國通貨膨脹的混雜讀物，黃金期貨在周四上升。

Futures for December gold rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session. Prices surged more than 20% in 2025 amid a broad shift toward safe-haven assets.

12月黃金的期貨上漲了0.3％，以$ 3,240.40的價格降至會議早期的3,200美元水平後，每盎司3,240.40美元。在2025年，價格飆升了20％以上，而在朝著避風港資產的廣泛轉變中。

The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

根據最近的一份票據，世界上最大的對沖基金Bridgewater Associates現在預計到2025年第四季度黃金將上漲至2,000美元。

"We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025," said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

創始人雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）領導的布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的戰略家說：“我們預計，從2025年初的升高水平較高的利率環境和降低通貨膨脹率較低。”

"We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year."

“我們還預計，美國經濟活動的逐漸放緩，並從2025年從年前早些時候恢復到2025年的失業率較低。”

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

他們的預測是在高盛的一位頂級經濟學家週四警告說，美國可能會在2025年陷入衰退。

"We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）首席經濟學家揚·哈齊斯（Jan Hatzius）說：“我們現在希望美國在2025年陷入衰退。”

"Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter."

“此前預測了2024年中期的經濟下滑後，我們現在預測較淺的收縮，將於2025年第一季度開始，並持續到第二季度。”

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

但是，在其他經濟學家的分歧中，哈齊烏斯說，他並不希望2025年的衰退與許多經濟學家預測2024年的經濟衰退一樣嚴重。

"We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting."

“我們預測的收縮比我們先前預測的縮水較淺，我們預計它比《華爾街日報》報導的一位經濟學家現在所期望的不那麼嚴重。”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.output: As of April 13, 2025, gold futures settled slightly higher on Thursday, as geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine continued and mixed reading on U.S. inflation kept traders attentive.

投資者還將密切關注美國消費者價格指數的最新閱讀，預計4月份將增長0.3％。道瓊斯（Dow Jones）進行調查的經濟學家預計，核心CPI閱讀核心（CPI Reading）。輸出：截至2025年4月13日，週四，黃金期貨略高於略高，因為烏克蘭的地緣政治動盪繼續，並且對美國通貨膨脹的混雜閱讀保持了交易者的關注。

December gold futures rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session.

12月的黃金期貨上漲了0.3％，在短暫浸入$ 3,200的水平之後，以每盎司3,240.40美元的價格定居。

The world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

根據最近的一份票據，世界上最大的對沖基金Bridgewater Associates現在預計到2025年第四季度黃金將上漲至2,000美元。

“We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025,” said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

創始人雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）領導的布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的戰略家說：“我們預計，從2025年初的高度升高的利率環境和較低的通貨膨脹率恢復到較低的通貨膨脹。”

“We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year.”

“我們還預計，與今年早些時候相比，美國經濟活動逐漸放緩，並在2025年恢復到較低的失業率。”

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

他們的預測是在高盛的一位頂級經濟學家週四警告說，美國可能會在2025年陷入衰退。

“We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的首席經濟學家揚·哈齊斯（Jan Hatzius）說：“我們現在希望美國在2025年陷入衰退。”

“Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter.”

“以前預測了2024年中期的經濟下滑後，我們現在預測較淺的收縮，將於2025年第一季度開始，並持續到第二季度。”

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

但是，在其他經濟學家的分歧中，哈齊烏斯說，他並不希望2025年的衰退與許多經濟學家預測2024年的經濟衰退一樣嚴重。

“We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting.”

“我們預測的收縮比我們先前預測的2024年收縮，我們希望它比《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）投票的一位經濟學家現在所期望的不那麼嚴重。”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.

投資者還將密切關注美國消費者價格指數的最新閱讀，預計4月份將增長0.3％。道瓊斯（Dow Jones）進行調查的經濟學家預計，核心CPI閱讀量會增加0.4％。