熊市中的黃金與比特幣：紐約人對加密貨幣的避風港的看法

探索有關黃金或比特幣是熊市期間真正的避風港的辯論，並洞悉ETF影響力和替代幣季節。

Gold vs. Bitcoin in Bear Markets: A New Yorker's Take on Crypto's Safe Haven

熊市中的黃金與比特幣：紐約人對加密貨幣的避風港的看法

In the concrete jungle where dreams are made of (and portfolios can get wrecked), the age-old question of where to stash your cash during a bear market rages on. Is it gold, the shiny relic of the past, or Bitcoin, the digital disruptor? Let's break it down, New York style.

在混凝土叢林中，夢dream以求的（和投資組合可能會被破壞），這是一個古老的問題，即在熊市市場上，在哪裡藏您的現金。是黃金，過去的閃亮遺物還是比特幣，是數字破壞者？讓我們分解，紐約風格。

Gold's Got Grit: Bear Market Veteran

黃金的勇氣：熊市老兵

Word on the street is that gold has been flexing its muscles during S&P 500 sell-offs. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Athanasios Psarofagis points out that while Bitcoin can deliver explosive returns in a bull market, gold tends to hold its own when the market tanks. Think of it as the reliable bodega on the corner – always there, even when the fancy restaurants are closed.

街上的消息是，在標準普爾500指數中，黃金一直在鍛煉肌肉。彭博情報公司的Athanasios Psarofagis指出，儘管比特幣可以在牛市中提供爆炸性的回報，但在市場坦克時，黃金傾向於擁有自己的爆炸性。可以將其視為角落裡可靠的Bodega - 即使高檔餐廳關閉，也總是在那裡。

Gold’s not perfect, though. It’s got volatility, just like everything else. But when the chips are down, gold's historically been a more dependable hideout than Bitcoin.

黃金並不完美。就像其他一切一樣，它具有波動性。但是，當芯片倒閉時，戈爾的歷史上比比特幣更可靠。

Bitcoin: The Wild Child

比特幣：野生孩子

Bitcoin? It's the new kid on the block, promising wild returns and a hedge against, well, everything. Psarofagis argues that Bitcoin is more of a hedge against the expansion of the global money supply. It’s got a fixed supply, a scarcity governments can’t mess with, which is kinda cool. But when tech stocks take a dive, Bitcoin often goes down with them. Ouch.

比特幣？這是街區上的新孩子，有望有野性回報和對沖，一切。 Psarofagis認為，比特幣更像是對全球貨幣供應擴張的對沖。它有固定的供應，稀缺的政府不會陷入困境，這很酷。但是，當科技股進行潛水時，比特幣經常會與它們降低。哎喲。

ETFs: Changing the Game?

ETF：更改遊戲？

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Bitcoin ETFs have arrived, and according to Blockware BTC analyst Mitchell Askew, they're changing the game. He suggests that Bitcoin will no longer experience “parabolic” price rallies or “devastating” bear markets, because BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have permanently reduced volatility and altered market dynamics. Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that the reduced volatility has helped Bitcoin “attract even bigger fish and gives it a fighting chance to be adopted as currency.”

現在，這是有趣的地方。比特幣ETF已經到了，根據BLOCKWARE BTC分析師Mitchell Askew的說法，他們正在改變遊戲。他建議比特幣將不再體驗“拋物線”價格集會或“毀滅性”熊市，因為BTC交易所交易資金（ETF）永久降低了波動性和市場動態的改變。彭博ETF高級分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）寫道，降低的波動率幫助比特幣“吸引了更大的魚，並為其提供了被採用作為貨幣的戰鬥機會。”

But these ETFs also keep Bitcoin off-chain, potentially slowing down the altcoin party. Some argue that the demand for paper BTC, like BlockRock’s ETF, is centralizing Bitcoin's supply. Is this the future? Only time will tell.

但是，這些ETF也使比特幣脫離鏈，有可能減慢山寨幣黨的速度。有人認為，對BLOCKROCK的ETF，對BTC的需求是集中比特幣的供應。這是未來嗎？只有時間會證明。

Altcoin Season: Is It Nigh?

Altcoin季節：它近在咫尺嗎？

Speaking of parties, the crypto crowd is buzzing about altseason. Analysts are seeing falling wedge patterns and institutional investors diving into altcoins. Could this be Altcoin Season 3.0, with gains reminiscent of 2018 and 2021? Mister Crypto is even calling it the "banana zone," predicting explosive growth. Whether or not the ETFs are preventing the rotation into altcoins remains to be seen.

說到聚會，加密貨幣人群對altseason嗡嗡作響。分析師看到楔形模式下降，機構投資者潛入山寨幣。這可能是Altcoin Season 3.0，讓人聯想到2018年和2021年嗎？ Crypto先生甚至稱其為“香蕉區”，預測了爆炸性的增長。 ETF是否阻止旋轉到AltCoins尚待觀察。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個satoshis

Personally, I think a mix of both gold and Bitcoin is the way to go. Gold for stability, Bitcoin for potential upside. And maybe a little bit of cash under the mattress, just in case. After all, diversification is the spice of life, even in the bear market jungle.

就個人而言，我認為黃金和比特幣的混合是必經之路。穩定的黃金，比特幣的潛在上行空間。也許在床墊下有一點現金，以防萬一。畢竟，即使在熊市叢林中，多樣化也是生活的香料。

The Bottom Line

底線

So, there you have it. Gold and Bitcoin, each with their strengths and weaknesses. The choice is yours, but remember: do your own research. As they say in Brooklyn, "Don't be a dummy!" Now go forth and conquer the market, or at least survive it with your sense of humor intact.

所以，你有。黃金和比特幣，每種都有其優點和缺點。選擇是您的，但請記住：進行自己的研究。正如他們在布魯克林所說的那樣，“別成為假人！”現在去征服市場，或者至少要以幽默感完好無損地生存。