熊市中的黄金与比特币：纽约人对加密货币的避风港的看法

探索有关黄金或比特币是熊市期间真正的避风港的辩论，并洞悉ETF影响力和替代币季节。

Gold vs. Bitcoin in Bear Markets: A New Yorker's Take on Crypto's Safe Haven

熊市中的黄金与比特币：纽约人对加密货币的避风港的看法

In the concrete jungle where dreams are made of (and portfolios can get wrecked), the age-old question of where to stash your cash during a bear market rages on. Is it gold, the shiny relic of the past, or Bitcoin, the digital disruptor? Let's break it down, New York style.

在混凝土丛林中，梦dream以求的（和投资组合可能会被破坏），这是一个古老的问题，即在熊市市场上，在哪里藏您的现金。是黄金，过去的闪亮遗物还是比特币，是数字破坏者？让我们分解，纽约风格。

Gold's Got Grit: Bear Market Veteran

黄金的勇气：熊市老兵

Word on the street is that gold has been flexing its muscles during S&P 500 sell-offs. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Athanasios Psarofagis points out that while Bitcoin can deliver explosive returns in a bull market, gold tends to hold its own when the market tanks. Think of it as the reliable bodega on the corner – always there, even when the fancy restaurants are closed.

街上的消息是，在标准普尔500指数中，黄金一直在锻炼肌肉。彭博情报公司的Athanasios Psarofagis指出，尽管比特币可以在牛市中提供爆炸性的回报，但在市场坦克时，黄金倾向于拥有自己的爆炸性。可以将其视为角落里可靠的Bodega - 即使高档餐厅关闭，也总是在那里。

Gold’s not perfect, though. It’s got volatility, just like everything else. But when the chips are down, gold's historically been a more dependable hideout than Bitcoin.

黄金并不完美。就像其他一切一样，它具有波动性。但是，当芯片倒闭时，戈尔的历史上比比特币更可靠。

Bitcoin: The Wild Child

比特币：野生孩子

Bitcoin? It's the new kid on the block, promising wild returns and a hedge against, well, everything. Psarofagis argues that Bitcoin is more of a hedge against the expansion of the global money supply. It’s got a fixed supply, a scarcity governments can’t mess with, which is kinda cool. But when tech stocks take a dive, Bitcoin often goes down with them. Ouch.

比特币？这是街区上的新孩子，有望有野性回报和对冲，一切。 Psarofagis认为，比特币更像是对全球货币供应扩张的对冲。它有固定的供应，稀缺的政府不会陷入困境，这很酷。但是，当科技股进行潜水时，比特币经常会与它们降低。哎哟。

ETFs: Changing the Game?

ETF：更改游戏？

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Bitcoin ETFs have arrived, and according to Blockware BTC analyst Mitchell Askew, they're changing the game. He suggests that Bitcoin will no longer experience “parabolic” price rallies or “devastating” bear markets, because BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have permanently reduced volatility and altered market dynamics. Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that the reduced volatility has helped Bitcoin “attract even bigger fish and gives it a fighting chance to be adopted as currency.”

现在，这是有趣的地方。比特币ETF已经到了，根据BLOCKWARE BTC分析师Mitchell Askew的说法，他们正在改变游戏。他建议比特币将不再体验“抛物线”价格集会或“毁灭性”熊市，因为BTC交易所交易资金（ETF）永久降低了波动性和市场动态的改变。彭博ETF高级分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）写道，降低的波动率帮助比特币“吸引了更大的鱼，并为其提供了被采用作为货币的战斗机会。”

But these ETFs also keep Bitcoin off-chain, potentially slowing down the altcoin party. Some argue that the demand for paper BTC, like BlockRock’s ETF, is centralizing Bitcoin's supply. Is this the future? Only time will tell.

但是，这些ETF也使比特币脱离链，有可能减慢山寨币党的速度。有人认为，对BLOCKROCK的ETF，对BTC的需求是集中比特币的供应。这是未来吗？只有时间会证明。

Altcoin Season: Is It Nigh?

Altcoin季节：它近在咫尺吗？

Speaking of parties, the crypto crowd is buzzing about altseason. Analysts are seeing falling wedge patterns and institutional investors diving into altcoins. Could this be Altcoin Season 3.0, with gains reminiscent of 2018 and 2021? Mister Crypto is even calling it the "banana zone," predicting explosive growth. Whether or not the ETFs are preventing the rotation into altcoins remains to be seen.

说到聚会，加密货币人群对altseason嗡嗡作响。分析师看到楔形模式下降，机构投资者潜入山寨币。这可能是Altcoin Season 3.0，让人联想到2018年和2021年吗？ Crypto先生甚至称其为“香蕉区”，预测了爆炸性的增长。 ETF是否阻止旋转到AltCoins尚待观察。

My Two Satoshis

我的两个satoshis

Personally, I think a mix of both gold and Bitcoin is the way to go. Gold for stability, Bitcoin for potential upside. And maybe a little bit of cash under the mattress, just in case. After all, diversification is the spice of life, even in the bear market jungle.

就个人而言，我认为黄金和比特币的混合是必经之路。稳定的黄金，比特币的潜在上行空间。也许在床垫下有一点现金，以防万一。毕竟，即使在熊市丛林中，多样化也是生活的香料。

The Bottom Line

底线

So, there you have it. Gold and Bitcoin, each with their strengths and weaknesses. The choice is yours, but remember: do your own research. As they say in Brooklyn, "Don't be a dummy!" Now go forth and conquer the market, or at least survive it with your sense of humor intact.

所以，你有。黄金和比特币，每种都有其优点和缺点。选择是您的，但请记住：进行自己的研究。正如他们在布鲁克林所说的那样，“别成为假人！”现在去征服市场，或者至少要以幽默感完好无损地生存。