全球銀行花旗已經預測2025

這可能會導致在美國私營和公共部門更大地採用基於區塊鏈的貨幣，並刺激其他用例（財務及其他案例）

Citi has predicted that 2025 could be a possible inflection point for stablecoin adoption, driving broader blockchain use cases in a development that parallels the breakout year artificial intelligence (AI) had with popular application ChatGPT.

花旗已經預測，2025年可能是採用Stablecoin的拐點，在與流行的應用程序Chatgpt相關的開發過程中推動了更廣泛的區塊鏈用例。

At the center of the Citi's projection are stablecoins, a class of cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. These tokens, led by Tether's $145 billion USDT and Circle's $60 billion USDC, have seen tremendous growth recently and are increasingly being used for payments and remittances globally.

花旗投影的中心是穩定的，這是一類加密貨幣，將其固定在諸如美元之類的傳統貨幣上。這些代幣由Tether的1,450億美元和Circle的600億美元USDC領導，最近已經實現了巨大的增長，並越來越多地用於全球付款和匯款。

Citi sees the asset class potentially growing to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in its base case from the current $230 billion, with the caveat that regulatory support and institutional integration take hold. In the bank's more optimistic scenario, the market could balloon to $3.7 trillion, though lingering structural challenges could keep the number closer to $500 billion in the bank's bear case.

Citi認為，在目前的2300億美元的基本案例中，在2030年，資產類別可能會增長到1.6萬億美元，而警告的監管支持和機構一體化需要確定。在該銀行更樂觀的情況下，市場可能會激增至3.7萬億美元，儘管揮之不去的結構性挑戰可以使該銀行的熊案中的數字接近5000億美元。

A major catalyst is the supportive regulatory stance in the U.S., with a recent presidential executive order directing the formation of a federal framework for digital assets, the report said. The clarity around stablecoin rules could allow these tokens to be more deeply embedded in the financial system, offering faster payments, improved transparency and more efficient asset settlement.

報告說，主要的催化劑是美國的支持性監管立場，最近的總統行政命令指示建立聯邦數字資產框架。圍繞Stablecoin規則的清晰度可以使這些令牌更深入地嵌入金融體系，提供更快的付款，提高透明度和更有效的資產和解。

"This could lead to greater adoption of blockchain-based money and spur other use cases, financial and beyond, in the U.S. private and public sector," the authors noted.

作者指出：“這可能導致在美國私營部門和公共部門中更多地採用基於區塊鏈的貨幣，並刺激其他用例，財務及其他案例。”

Stablecoin issuers to become major U.S. Treasury holders

Stablecoin發行人成為美國主要財政持有人

Stablecoins are expected to remain heavily dollar-denominated in the future. The report anticipates that around 90% of stablecoins in circulation in 2030 will still be tied to the U.S. dollar, cementing its dominance.

預計將來的穩定幣將保持沉重的成果。該報告預計，2030年流通期間約有90％的Stablecoins仍將與美元聯繫在一起，以鞏固其優勢。

This has major implications for the global financial system. Dollar stablecoin issuers could become one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, assuming that regulations push toward backing tokens with low-risk, highly liquid traditional financial assets like government bonds. Citibank estimated issuers could hold $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt by the end of the decade, potentially surpassing all major foreign sovereign holders.

這對全球金融體系具有重大影響。假設法規推動使用低風險，高風險，高度流動的傳統金融資產（如政府債券）朝著支持令牌的支持，那麼美元穩定發行人可能會成為美國國債最大的買家之一。花旗銀行估計發行人在十年末可以持有1.2萬億美元的美國政府債務，可能超過所有主要的外國主權持有人。

Meanwhile, the central banks of countries in Europe and Asia will likely promote their own digital currencies, or CBDCs, the report noted.

報告指出，同時，歐洲和亞洲國家的中央銀行可能會促進自己的數字貨幣或CBDC。

The report pointed to several risks that could hamper the growth. Stablecoins de-pegged nearly 1,900 times in 2023 alone, including more than 600 instances involving major tokens, the report's authors wrote, citing Moody's data.

該報告指出，幾種可能會妨礙增長的風險。該報告的作者寫道，僅在2023年，穩定幣就在2023年就進行了近1,900次，其中包括600多個涉及主要令牌的實例。

In extreme cases, mass redemptions—like those following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that consequently hit USDC—can disrupt crypto liquidity, force automated selloffs and ripple through financial markets, the authors added.

作者補充說，在極端情況下，大規模贖回 - 就像矽谷銀行（SVB）崩潰的人一樣，因此遭到了USDC的襲擊 - 可能會破壞加密流動性，武力自動拋售和通過金融市場的波動。