全球银行花旗已经预测2025

这可能会导致在美国私营和公共部门更大地采用基于区块链的货币，并刺激其他用例（财务及其他案例）

Citi has predicted that 2025 could be a possible inflection point for stablecoin adoption, driving broader blockchain use cases in a development that parallels the breakout year artificial intelligence (AI) had with popular application ChatGPT.

花旗已经预测，2025年可能是采用Stablecoin的拐点，在与流行的应用程序Chatgpt相关的开发过程中推动了更广泛的区块链用例。

At the center of the Citi's projection are stablecoins, a class of cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. These tokens, led by Tether's $145 billion USDT and Circle's $60 billion USDC, have seen tremendous growth recently and are increasingly being used for payments and remittances globally.

花旗投影的中心是稳定的，这是一类加密货币，将其固定在诸如美元之类的传统货币上。这些代币由Tether的1,450亿美元和Circle的600亿美元USDC领导，最近已经实现了巨大的增长，并越来越多地用于全球付款和汇款。

Citi sees the asset class potentially growing to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in its base case from the current $230 billion, with the caveat that regulatory support and institutional integration take hold. In the bank's more optimistic scenario, the market could balloon to $3.7 trillion, though lingering structural challenges could keep the number closer to $500 billion in the bank's bear case.

Citi认为，在目前的2300亿美元的基本案例中，在2030年，资产类别可能会增长到1.6万亿美元，而警告的监管支持和机构一体化需要确定。在该银行更乐观的情况下，市场可能会激增至3.7万亿美元，尽管挥之不去的结构性挑战可以使该银行的熊案中的数字接近5000亿美元。

A major catalyst is the supportive regulatory stance in the U.S., with a recent presidential executive order directing the formation of a federal framework for digital assets, the report said. The clarity around stablecoin rules could allow these tokens to be more deeply embedded in the financial system, offering faster payments, improved transparency and more efficient asset settlement.

报告说，主要的催化剂是美国的支持性监管立场，最近的总统行政命令指示建立联邦数字资产框架。围绕Stablecoin规则的清晰度可以使这些令牌更深入地嵌入金融体系，提供更快的付款，提高透明度和更有效的资产和解。

"This could lead to greater adoption of blockchain-based money and spur other use cases, financial and beyond, in the U.S. private and public sector," the authors noted.

作者指出：“这可能导致在美国私营部门和公共部门中更多地采用基于区块链的货币，并刺激其他用例，财务及其他案例。”

Stablecoin issuers to become major U.S. Treasury holders

Stablecoin发行人成为美国主要财政持有人

Stablecoins are expected to remain heavily dollar-denominated in the future. The report anticipates that around 90% of stablecoins in circulation in 2030 will still be tied to the U.S. dollar, cementing its dominance.

预计将来的稳定币将保持沉重的成果。该报告预计，2030年流通期间约有90％的Stablecoins仍将与美元联系在一起，以巩固其优势。

This has major implications for the global financial system. Dollar stablecoin issuers could become one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, assuming that regulations push toward backing tokens with low-risk, highly liquid traditional financial assets like government bonds. Citibank estimated issuers could hold $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt by the end of the decade, potentially surpassing all major foreign sovereign holders.

这对全球金融体系具有重大影响。假设法规推动使用低风险，高风险，高度流动的传统金融资产（如政府债券）朝着支持令牌的支持，那么美元稳定发行人可能会成为美国国债最大的买家之一。花旗银行估计发行人在十年末可以持有1.2万亿美元的美国政府债务，可能超过所有主要的外国主权持有人。

Meanwhile, the central banks of countries in Europe and Asia will likely promote their own digital currencies, or CBDCs, the report noted.

报告指出，同时，欧洲和亚洲国家的中央银行可能会促进自己的数字货币或CBDC。

The report pointed to several risks that could hamper the growth. Stablecoins de-pegged nearly 1,900 times in 2023 alone, including more than 600 instances involving major tokens, the report's authors wrote, citing Moody's data.

该报告指出，几种可能会妨碍增长的风险。该报告的作者写道，仅在2023年，稳定币就在2023年就进行了近1,900次，其中包括600多个涉及主要令牌的实例。

In extreme cases, mass redemptions—like those following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that consequently hit USDC—can disrupt crypto liquidity, force automated selloffs and ripple through financial markets, the authors added.

作者补充说，在极端情况下，大规模赎回 - 就像硅谷银行（SVB）崩溃的人一样，因此遭到了USDC的袭击 - 可能会破坏加密流动性，武力自动抛售和通过金融市场的波动。