金融分析師預測金價前景光明

與華爾街公司有關的金融分析師都預期金價將在今年和明年繼續上漲

Financial analysts are predicting a bright future for gold prices, with several estimating that the precious metal will continue to rise in value this and the following year. This optimism is fueled by the current economic and geopolitical climate, which has seen gold outperforming the S&P 500 and reaching all-time high prices recently.

金融分析師預測金價前景光明，有些人預計今年和明年貴金屬的價值將繼續上漲。當前的經濟和地緣政治氣候加劇了這種樂觀情緒，黃金的表現優於標準普爾 500 指數，並於近期創下歷史新高。

One financial analyst, Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank Research, has raised his forecast for gold prices, predicting that the metal will reach $2,600 by mid-2025. This prediction is based on the expectation of three interest cuts in 2024 and another three in 2025. “Accordingly, we expect the gold price to rise further to $2,600 by the middle of next year,” Fritsch said. However, he also predicts that gold will return to $2,550 at the end of 2025 due to a “renewed rise in inflation and the associated speculation of interest rate hikes in the following year.”

德國商業銀行研究部的一位金融分析師 Carsten Fritsch 上調了對金價的預測，預計到 2025 年中期金價將達到 2,600 美元。這項預測是基於2024年三次降息、2025年另外三次降息的預期。不過，他也預測，由於“通膨再度上升以及相關的明年升息猜測”，金價將在 2025 年底重返 2,550 美元。

Other analysts are even more bullish on gold’s growth. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that gold might reach prices of $2,700 in the coming quarters if the Fed starts easing. Patrick Yip, senior director of business development at American Precious Metals Exchange, believes that a worsening geopolitical situation and rate cuts, aided by continued central bank demand, might take prices as high as $3,000 per ounce in 2025.

其他分析師對黃金的成長更加看好。道明證券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略全球主管巴特‧梅萊克(Bart Melek)表示，如果聯準會開始放鬆貨幣政策，金價可能在未來幾季達到2,700美元。美國貴金屬交易所業務發展高級總監Patrick Yip認為，在央行持續需求的推動下，不斷惡化的地緣政治局勢和降息可能會使2025年金價升至每盎司3,000美元。

This same prediction was made by Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who said that gold prices might reach $3,000, powered by significant risks of increased stock market volatility and global recession, particularly highlighting economic challenges in China.

彭博資訊(Bloomberg Intelligence) 高級商品策略師Mike McGlone 也做出了同樣的預測，他表示，受股市波動加劇和全球經濟衰退的重大風險推動，金價可能會達到3,000 美元，特別是凸顯了中國的經濟挑戰。

If the fears of a looming recession, predicted by economists like Jim Rickards, come to fruition, demand for gold and other hard assets might increase, propping gold prices even higher.

如果吉姆·里卡茲(Jim Rickards)等經濟學家預測的對即將到來的經濟衰退的擔憂成為現實，對黃金和其他硬資產的需求可能會增加，從而推動金價進一步走高。