金融分析师预测金价前景光明

与华尔街公司有关的金融分析师都预计金价将在今年和明年继续上涨

Financial analysts are predicting a bright future for gold prices, with several estimating that the precious metal will continue to rise in value this and the following year. This optimism is fueled by the current economic and geopolitical climate, which has seen gold outperforming the S&P 500 and reaching all-time high prices recently.

金融分析师预测金价前景光明，一些人预计今年和明年贵金属的价值将继续上涨。当前的经济和地缘政治气候加剧了这种乐观情绪，黄金的表现优于标准普尔 500 指数，并于近期创下历史新高。

One financial analyst, Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank Research, has raised his forecast for gold prices, predicting that the metal will reach $2,600 by mid-2025. This prediction is based on the expectation of three interest cuts in 2024 and another three in 2025. “Accordingly, we expect the gold price to rise further to $2,600 by the middle of next year,” Fritsch said. However, he also predicts that gold will return to $2,550 at the end of 2025 due to a “renewed rise in inflation and the associated speculation of interest rate hikes in the following year.”

德国商业银行研究部的一位金融分析师 Carsten Fritsch 上调了对金价的预测，预计到 2025 年中期金价将达到 2,600 美元。这一预测是基于2024年三次降息、2025年另外三次降息的预期。“因此，我们预计金价到明年年中将进一步上涨至2600美元，”Fritsch表示。不过，他还预测，由于“通胀再度上升以及相关的明年加息猜测”，金价将在 2025 年底重返 2,550 美元。

Other analysts are even more bullish on gold’s growth. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that gold might reach prices of $2,700 in the coming quarters if the Fed starts easing. Patrick Yip, senior director of business development at American Precious Metals Exchange, believes that a worsening geopolitical situation and rate cuts, aided by continued central bank demand, might take prices as high as $3,000 per ounce in 2025.

其他分析师对黄金的增长更加看好。道明证券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略全球主管巴特·梅莱克(Bart Melek)表示，如果美联储开始放松货币政策，金价可能在未来几个季度达到2700美元。美国贵金属交易所业务发展高级总监Patrick Yip认为，在央行持续需求的推动下，不断恶化的地缘政治局势和降息可能会使2025年金价升至每盎司3,000美元。

This same prediction was made by Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who said that gold prices might reach $3,000, powered by significant risks of increased stock market volatility and global recession, particularly highlighting economic challenges in China.

彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 高级商品策略师 Mike McGlone 也做出了同样的预测，他表示，受股市波动加剧和全球经济衰退的重大风险推动，金价可能会达到 3,000 美元，特别是凸显了中国的经济挑战。

If the fears of a looming recession, predicted by economists like Jim Rickards, come to fruition, demand for gold and other hard assets might increase, propping gold prices even higher.

如果吉姆·里卡兹(Jim Rickards)等经济学家预测的对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧成为现实，对黄金和其他硬资产的需求可能会增加，从而推动金价进一步走高。