聯準會降息如何影響比特幣

聯準會在即將召開的會議上可能決定降息 50 個基點，這可能會為比特幣帶來意想不到的後果。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but the magnitude of the cut could have varying effects on Bitcoin.

人們普遍預期聯準會將在即將召開的會議上降息，但降息幅度可能會對比特幣產生不同的影響。

While lower interest rates generally tend to boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies, the scale of this cut could signal deeper economic concerns that might lead investors to adopt a more cautious approach.

雖然較低的利率通常會提振加密貨幣等風險資產，但此次降息的規模可能預示著更深層的經濟擔憂，可能導致投資者採取更謹慎的態度。

How Fed Rate Cuts Could Impact Bitcoin

聯準會降息如何影響比特幣

The Fed has typically favored smaller moves in the past, usually opting for 25 basis points adjustments. However, the possibility of a 50 basis points cut has been gaining ground.

聯準會過去通常傾向於較小的舉措，通常選擇 25 個基點的調整。然而，降息 50 個基點的可能性一直在增加。

This could indicate that the central bank is lagging behind in addressing economic weakness, especially after disappointing jobs reports.

這可能表明央行在解決經濟疲軟問題上落後了，尤其是在就業報告令人失望之後。

But such a large cut could be interpreted as a sign of urgency, leading to a retreat from risky assets like Bitcoin, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research.

但 10X Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 表示，如此大幅度的降息可能被解讀為一種緊迫的跡象，導致人們從比特幣等風險資產中撤退。

“While a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed would signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

「雖然聯準會降息50個基點將向市場發出更深層的擔憂，但聯準會的主要重點將是減輕經濟風險，而不是管理市場反應，」蒂倫在給客戶的報告中表示。

The focus on mitigating economic risks suggests that a large rate cut could be on the horizon.

對緩解經濟風險的關注表明，大幅降息可能即將到來。

If the Fed does cut rates by 50 basis points, it could indicate that economic conditions are worse than anticipated, leading to a flight to safer assets.

如果聯準會確實降息 50 個基點，則可能表明經濟狀況比預期更糟糕，導致投資者轉向更安全的資產。

This would likely hurt Bitcoin, as investors typically seek stability in times of uncertainty.

這可能會損害比特幣，因為投資者通常在不確定時期尋求穩定。

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, adding to the market speculation.

芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具顯示降息50個基點的可能性為25%，加劇了市場猜測。

Similarly, Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, told BeInCrypto that while a 25-basis-point cut could support Bitcoin’s price, a 50-basis-point cut might have the opposite effect.

同樣，Quantum Economics 執行長 Mati Greenspan 告訴 BeInCrypto，雖然降息 25 個基點可以支撐比特幣的價格，但降息 50 個基點可能會產生相反的效果。

He explained that such a drastic move could be perceived as an “act of desperation,” triggering a negative market reaction. According to Greenspan, this is “precisely why such a move is fairly unlikely.”

他解釋說，如此激烈的舉動可能被視為“絕望之舉”，引發市場負面反應。格林斯潘表示，這「正是這種舉措不太可能發生的原因」。

This view aligns with the idea that Bitcoin’s recent price rise has been partly fueled by expectations of moderate rate cuts.

這種觀點與比特幣近期價格上漲部分是由適度降息預期所推動的觀點一致。

“The current expectation is for the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25%, which would be bullish for financial assets like stocks and crypto, as it reduces the cost to borrow money,” Greenspan said.

格林斯潘表示：“目前的預期是聯準會降息 0.25%，這對股票和加密貨幣等金融資產有利，因為它降低了借貸成本。”

Ultimately, while a rate cut would normally be viewed positively by Bitcoin investors, a larger-than-expected cut could signal upcoming economic difficulties, putting the cryptocurrency under pressure.

最終，雖然比特幣投資者通常會積極看待降息，但降息幅度超出預期可能預示著即將到來的經濟困難，使加密貨幣面臨壓力。