美联储降息如何影响比特币

美联储在即将召开的会议上可能决定降息 50 个基点，这可能会给比特币带来意想不到的后果。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but the magnitude of the cut could have varying effects on Bitcoin.

人们普遍预计美联储将在即将召开的会议上降息，但降息幅度可能会对比特币产生不同的影响。

While lower interest rates generally tend to boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies, the scale of this cut could signal deeper economic concerns that might lead investors to adopt a more cautious approach.

虽然较低的利率通常会提振加密货币等风险资产，但此次降息的规模可能预示着更深层次的经济担忧，从而可能导致投资者采取更加谨慎的态度。

How Fed Rate Cuts Could Impact Bitcoin

美联储降息如何影响比特币

The Fed has typically favored smaller moves in the past, usually opting for 25 basis points adjustments. However, the possibility of a 50 basis points cut has been gaining ground.

美联储过去通常倾向于较小的举措，通常选择 25 个基点的调整。然而，降息 50 个基点的可能性一直在增加。

This could indicate that the central bank is lagging behind in addressing economic weakness, especially after disappointing jobs reports.

这可能表明央行在应对经济疲软方面落后了，尤其是在就业报告令人失望之后。

But such a large cut could be interpreted as a sign of urgency, leading to a retreat from risky assets like Bitcoin, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research.

但 10X Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 表示，如此大幅度的降息可能被解读为一种紧迫的迹象，导致人们从比特币等风险资产中撤退。

“While a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed would signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

“虽然美联储降息50个基点将向市场发出更深层次的担忧，但美联储的主要重点将是减轻经济风险，而不是管理市场反应，”蒂伦在给客户的一份报告中表示。

The focus on mitigating economic risks suggests that a large rate cut could be on the horizon.

对缓解经济风险的关注表明，大幅降息可能即将到来。

If the Fed does cut rates by 50 basis points, it could indicate that economic conditions are worse than anticipated, leading to a flight to safer assets.

如果美联储确实降息 50 个基点，则可能表明经济状况比预期更糟糕，导致投资者转向更安全的资产。

This would likely hurt Bitcoin, as investors typically seek stability in times of uncertainty.

这可能会损害比特币，因为投资者通常在不确定时期寻求稳定。

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, adding to the market speculation.

芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示降息50个基点的可能性为25%，加剧了市场猜测。

Similarly, Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, told BeInCrypto that while a 25-basis-point cut could support Bitcoin’s price, a 50-basis-point cut might have the opposite effect.

同样，Quantum Economics 首席执行官 Mati Greenspan 告诉 BeInCrypto，虽然降息 25 个基点可以支撑比特币的价格，但降息 50 个基点可能会产生相反的效果。

He explained that such a drastic move could be perceived as an “act of desperation,” triggering a negative market reaction. According to Greenspan, this is “precisely why such a move is fairly unlikely.”

他解释说，如此激烈的举动可能被视为“绝望之举”，引发市场负面反应。格林斯潘表示，这“正是这种举措不太可能发生的原因”。

This view aligns with the idea that Bitcoin’s recent price rise has been partly fueled by expectations of moderate rate cuts.

这种观点与比特币近期价格上涨部分是由适度降息预期推动的观点相一致。

“The current expectation is for the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25%, which would be bullish for financial assets like stocks and crypto, as it reduces the cost to borrow money,” Greenspan said.

格林斯潘表示：“目前的预期是美联储降息 0.25%，这对股票和加密货币等金融资产有利，因为它降低了借贷成本。”

Ultimately, while a rate cut would normally be viewed positively by Bitcoin investors, a larger-than-expected cut could signal upcoming economic difficulties, putting the cryptocurrency under pressure.

最终，虽然比特币投资者通常会积极看待降息，但降息幅度超出预期可能预示着即将到来的经济困难，从而使加密货币面临压力。