聯準會降息：逆向觀點

市場普遍認為比特幣可能在 2024 年第四季飆升，特別是考慮到聯準會持續升息

key takeaways:

要點：

A market narrative suggests that Bitcoin could rally in Q4 2024 due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures. However, a crypto analyst argues that the impact of these factors might be exaggerated.

市場敘述表明，由於聯準會降息和中國的刺激措施，比特幣可能會在 2024 年第四季上漲。然而，一位加密貨幣分析師認為，這些因素的影響可能被誇大了。

Cryptocurrency prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, and Fed rates are just one aspect that affects global liquidity. Despite the Fed raising rates to new highs in 2023, Bitcoin rallied significantly during this period.

加密貨幣價格受到多種因素的影響，Fed利率只是影響全球流動性的一方面。儘管聯準會在 2023 年將利率提高至新高，但比特幣在此期間仍大幅上漲。

China’s stimulus is seen as being more favorable for A shares than for cryptocurrencies. Observers have noted that USDT has traded at a discount to the Chinese yuan since the announcement of the stimulus measures, indicating a shift in capital from crypto to stocks in China.

人們認為中國的刺激措施對 A 股比對加密貨幣更有利。觀察家指出，自刺激措施宣布以來，USDT 的交易價格相對人民幣有折扣，這表明中國的資金已從加密貨幣轉向股票。

Despite a temporary pause in the Chinese stock rally, market experts anticipate that further stimulus from the government could reignite the uptrend, potentially leading to a shift in capital from crypto to stocks in China.

儘管中國股市漲勢暫時暫停，但市場專家預計，政府的進一步刺激措施可能會重新點燃上漲趨勢，可能導致中國股市的資本從加密貨幣轉向股票。

The crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin may continue to trade within a range of $50K to $72K until a strong crypto catalyst emerges to drive the market. Currently, BTC is still trading below the 200-day Moving Average, indicating that a clear transition to a bullish market structure has not yet occurred.

這位加密貨幣分析師預測，比特幣可能會繼續在 5 萬美元至 7.2 萬美元的範圍內交易，直到出現強大的加密貨幣催化劑來推動市場。目前，BTC仍低於200日移動平均線，顯示尚未出現向牛市結構的明顯過渡。