美联储降息：逆向观点

市场普遍认为比特币可能在 2024 年第四季度飙升，特别是考虑到美联储持续加息

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A market narrative suggests that Bitcoin could rally in Q4 2024 due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures. However, a crypto analyst argues that the impact of these factors might be exaggerated.

市场叙述表明，由于美联储降息和中国的刺激措施，比特币可能会在 2024 年第四季度上涨。然而，一位加密货币分析师认为，这些因素的影响可能被夸大了。

Cryptocurrency prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, and Fed rates are just one aspect that affects global liquidity. Despite the Fed raising rates to new highs in 2023, Bitcoin rallied significantly during this period.

加密货币价格受到多种因素的影响，美联储利率只是影响全球流动性的一方面。尽管美联储在 2023 年将利率提高至新高，但比特币在此期间仍大幅上涨。

China’s stimulus is seen as being more favorable for A shares than for cryptocurrencies. Observers have noted that USDT has traded at a discount to the Chinese yuan since the announcement of the stimulus measures, indicating a shift in capital from crypto to stocks in China.

人们认为中国的刺激措施对 A 股比对加密货币更有利。观察人士指出，自刺激措施宣布以来，USDT 的交易价格相对人民币有折扣，这表明中国的资金已从加密货币转向股票。

Despite a temporary pause in the Chinese stock rally, market experts anticipate that further stimulus from the government could reignite the uptrend, potentially leading to a shift in capital from crypto to stocks in China.

尽管中国股市涨势暂时暂停，但市场专家预计，政府的进一步刺激措施可能会重新点燃上涨趋势，从而可能导致中国股市的资本从加密货币转向股票。

The crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin may continue to trade within a range of $50K to $72K until a strong crypto catalyst emerges to drive the market. Currently, BTC is still trading below the 200-day Moving Average, indicating that a clear transition to a bullish market structure has not yet occurred.

这位加密货币分析师预测，比特币可能会继续在 5 万美元至 7.2 万美元的范围内交易，直到出现强大的加密货币催化剂来推动市场。目前，BTC仍低于200日移动平均线，表明尚未出现向牛市结构的明显过渡。