聯準會降息押注降溫影響比特幣需求

週三，納斯達克綜合指數下跌 1.60%，反映出對聯準會利率路徑的擔憂。

The Nasdaq Composite Index slid by 1.60% on Wednesday as concerns about the path of Fed rates mounted. The 10-year US Treasury yields climbed to a mid-week high of 4.260%, marking the highest level since July. Recent US economic indicators continued to point towards a resilient economy, challenging investor bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in Q4 2024.

由於對聯準會利率走勢的擔憂加劇，那斯達克指數週三下跌 1.60%。美國10年期公債殖利率攀升至周中高點4.260%，創7月以來最高。近期美國經濟指標持續顯示經濟有彈性，對投資人對聯準會 2024 年第四季多次降息的押注構成挑戰。

Adding to the market uncertainty is the upcoming US Presidential Election. The latest polls show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 1.8 points, although Trump has managed to narrow the gap from a previous 3.7-point deficit. Despite Harris leading in the polls, the betting platform Polymarket gives Trump a 61.1% chance of winning, compared to 39.0% for Harris.

即將到來的美國總統選舉增加了市場的不確定性。最新民調顯示，卡馬拉·哈里斯領先唐納德·川普1.8個百分點，儘管川普已成功縮小先前3.7個百分點的差距。儘管哈里斯在民調中領先，但博彩平台 Polymarket 認為川普獲勝的幾率為 61.1%，而哈里斯的獲勝幾率為 39.0%。

Markets anticipate that a Trump presidency would result in higher inflation, potentially leading to a more hawkish Fed rate path. A more hawkish Fed rate path could impact the demand for riskier assets. However, Trump's proposed crypto policy goals may enhance BTC demand over the longer term, potentially outweighing the effects of a more hawkish Fed rate path.

市場預期川普當選總統將導致通膨上升，可能導緻聯準會採取更鷹派的利率路徑。聯準會更加鷹派的利率路徑可能會影響對風險資產的需求。然而，從長遠來看，川普提出的加密貨幣政策目標可能會增加比特幣的需求，這可能會超過聯準會更加鷹派的利率路徑的影響。

In addition to promising to fire SEC Chair Gensler on his first day in office, Trump also aims to include BTC in the US strategic reserves. A shift in the US government's stance on BTC could significantly alter the supply-demand balance in BTC's favor and reduce the risk of oversupply.

除了承諾在上任第一天解僱 SEC 主席 Gensler 之外，川普還計劃將 BTC 納入美國戰略儲備。美國政府對 BTC 立場的轉變可能會顯著改變對 BTC 有利的供需平衡，並降低供應過剩的風險。

The US government currently holds 203,239 BTC, which could increase substantially if it becomes a BTC hodler.

美國政府目前持有 203,239 BTC，如果成為 BTC 持有者，這一數字可能會大幅增加。

The US BTC-Spot ETF Market Experiences Outflows

美國BTC現貨ETF市場出現資金流出

On Tuesday, October 22, the US BTC-spot ETF market experienced total net outflows of $79.1 million, marking the end of a seven-day inflow streak. On Wednesday, the US BTC-spot ETF market is facing a second consecutive day of net outflows. According to Farside Investors:

10 月 22 日星期二，美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場淨流出總額為 7,910 萬美元，標誌著連續 7 天的資金流入結束。週三，美國BTC現貨ETF市場連續第二天面臨淨流出。根據 Farside 投資者的說法：