美联储降息押注降温影响比特币需求

周三，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.60%，反映出对美联储利率路径的担忧。

The Nasdaq Composite Index slid by 1.60% on Wednesday as concerns about the path of Fed rates mounted. The 10-year US Treasury yields climbed to a mid-week high of 4.260%, marking the highest level since July. Recent US economic indicators continued to point towards a resilient economy, challenging investor bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in Q4 2024.

由于对美联储利率走势的担忧加剧，纳斯达克综合指数周三下跌 1.60%。美国10年期国债收益率攀升至周中高点4.260%，创7月以来最高水平。近期美国经济指标继续显示经济有弹性，这对投资者对美联储 2024 年第四季度多次降息的押注构成挑战。

Adding to the market uncertainty is the upcoming US Presidential Election. The latest polls show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 1.8 points, although Trump has managed to narrow the gap from a previous 3.7-point deficit. Despite Harris leading in the polls, the betting platform Polymarket gives Trump a 61.1% chance of winning, compared to 39.0% for Harris.

即将到来的美国总统选举增加了市场的不确定性。最新民意调查显示，卡马拉·哈里斯领先唐纳德·特朗普1.8个百分点，尽管特朗普已成功缩小之前3.7个百分点的差距。尽管哈里斯在民调中领先，但博彩平台 Polymarket 认为特朗普获胜的几率为 61.1%，而哈里斯的获胜几率为 39.0%。

Markets anticipate that a Trump presidency would result in higher inflation, potentially leading to a more hawkish Fed rate path. A more hawkish Fed rate path could impact the demand for riskier assets. However, Trump's proposed crypto policy goals may enhance BTC demand over the longer term, potentially outweighing the effects of a more hawkish Fed rate path.

市场预计特朗普当选总统将导致通胀上升，可能导致美联储采取更加鹰派的利率路径。美联储更加鹰派的利率路径可能会影响对风险资产的需求。然而，从长远来看，特朗普提出的加密货币政策目标可能会增加比特币的需求，这可能会超过美联储更加鹰派的利率路径的影响。

In addition to promising to fire SEC Chair Gensler on his first day in office, Trump also aims to include BTC in the US strategic reserves. A shift in the US government's stance on BTC could significantly alter the supply-demand balance in BTC's favor and reduce the risk of oversupply.

除了承诺在上任第一天解雇 SEC 主席 Gensler 之外，特朗普还计划将 BTC 纳入美国战略储备。美国政府对 BTC 立场的转变可能会显着改变对 BTC 有利的供需平衡，并降低供应过剩的风险。

The US government currently holds 203,239 BTC, which could increase substantially if it becomes a BTC hodler.

美国政府目前持有 203,239 BTC，如果成为 BTC 持有者，这一数量可能会大幅增加。

The US BTC-Spot ETF Market Experiences Outflows

美国BTC现货ETF市场出现资金流出

On Tuesday, October 22, the US BTC-spot ETF market experienced total net outflows of $79.1 million, marking the end of a seven-day inflow streak. On Wednesday, the US BTC-spot ETF market is facing a second consecutive day of net outflows. According to Farside Investors:

10 月 22 日星期二，美国 BTC 现货 ETF 市场净流出总额为 7910 万美元，标志着连续 7 天的资金流入结束。周三，美国BTC现货ETF市场连续第二天面临净流出。根据 Farside 投资者的说法：