聯準會會阻礙川普的比特幣儲備願景嗎？

唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 當選美國第 47 任總統後，加密貨幣界對他早期的承諾持樂觀態度

output: Following Donald Trump's victory as the 47th President of the United States, the cryptocurrency community is optimistic about his earlier pledge to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

產出：唐納德·川普當選美國第 47 任總統後，加密貨幣界對他早些時候承諾建立比特幣戰略儲備持樂觀態度。

During his address at the Bitcoin [BTC] 2024 conference in Nashville, Trump expressed his commitment to this initiative, fueling anticipation among crypto enthusiasts.

川普在納許維爾舉行的比特幣 [BTC] 2024 會議上發表演說時表達了他對這項舉措的承諾，引發了加密貨幣愛好者的期待。

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments during a press conference highlighted that the central bank has no plans to participate in any government initiative to accumulate Bitcoin.

然而，聯準會主席鮑威爾最近在記者會上的言論強調，央行沒有計劃參與任何政府累積比特幣的計畫。

"We're not allowed to own Bitcoin. But the Federal Reserve Act says what we can own and we're not looking for a law change," Powell stated.

「我們不被允許擁有比特幣。但聯邦儲備法規定了我們可以擁有什麼，我們並不尋求改變法律，」鮑威爾表示。

His statement, following the monetary policy meeting, created uncertainty in the market, causing BTC's price to retreat from its recent highs. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $98,703.53, indicating a 5.18% increase in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

他在貨幣政策會議後發表的聲明給市場帶來了不確定性，導致比特幣價格從近期高點回落。根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 98,703.53 美元，顯示過去 24 小時內上漲了 5.18%。

Following Powell's comments, the probability of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, according to the prediction market Polymarket, has continued to decrease. Initially peaking at 40% on December 18, the likelihood has since dropped to 32%, reflecting a reduced possibility.

鮑威爾發表上述言論後，根據預測市場Polymarket的預測，比特幣戰略儲備的可能性持續下降。該可能性最初在 12 月 18 日達到 40% 的峰值，此後已降至 32%，反映出可能性降低。

Moreover, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also seen a significant decrease, losing approximately 7.5%. This further indicates the market's uncertainty as BTC's price faces resistance at key levels.

此外，加密貨幣總市值也大幅下滑，損失約7.5%。這進一步表明市場的不確定性，因為比特幣價格在關鍵水平上面臨阻力。

To provide some context, the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve would involve the U.S. government, specifically the Department of the Treasury, purchasing and holding a substantial amount of BTC. This initiative aims to diversify the nation's strategic reserves and potentially strengthen the dollar's status as the world's primary currency.

提供一些背景信息，創建比特幣戰略儲備將涉及美國政府，特別是財政部，購買和持有大量比特幣。該措施旨在實現國家戰略儲備多元化，並有可能加強美元作為世界主要貨幣的地位。

While the Federal Reserve maintains significant independence in monetary policy, it does not hold veto power over the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR).

儘管聯準會在貨幣政策方面保持顯著的獨立性，但它對比特幣戰略儲備（BSR）的創建並沒有否決權。

If the Trump administration were to pursue this initiative, the most efficient approach would likely involve issuing an executive order upon taking office, directing the U.S. Treasury Department to utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) for direct BTC purchases.

如果川普政府要推行這項舉措，最有效的方法可能是在上任後發布行政命令，指示美國財政部利用外匯穩定基金（ESF）直接購買比特幣。

This approach would circumvent the need for approval from Congress or the Federal Reserve, as the ESF can be used by the Treasury Department for urgent matters without obtaining prior consent from other parties.

這種方法將繞過國會或聯準會批准的需要，因為財政部可以在不事先徵得其他方同意的情況下將 ESF 用於緊急事務。

However, if the administration encounters difficulties in utilizing the ESF or prefers a broader approach, it could also choose to submit a proposal to Congress for the creation of a BSR, which would require legislative approval.

然而，如果政府在利用 ESF 時遇到困難或更喜歡更廣泛的方法，它也可以選擇向國會提交創建 BSR 的提案，這需要立法批准。

In conclusion, the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve appears to require leadership from the Treasury Department rather than the Federal Reserve, whether through executive action or legislative support.

總之，建立比特幣戰略儲備似乎需要財政部而不是聯準會的領導，無論是透過行政行動還是立法支持。