在快速移動的加密貨幣世界中，預測過去是成功的黃金鑰匙

在快速發展的加密貨幣世界中，預測過去是成功的黃金鑰匙。交易者依靠技術分析，指標和圖表模式。

In the quickly changing world of cryptocurrency, predictions used to be like the golden key to success. Traders would use technical analysis, indicators, and chart patterns to try and guess where the market was going next.

在快速不斷變化的加密貨幣世界中，預測曾經是成功的黃金鑰匙。交易者將使用技術分析，指標和圖表模式來嘗試猜測市場下一步的發展。

But today, the market is different. The biggest players, called whales, are controlling most of the action. And that means the old ways of predicting aren’t working as well anymore.

但是今天，市場有所不同。最大的球員，稱為鯨魚，正在控制大部分動作。這意味著舊的預測方式不再有效。

What are whales? They are people or institutions who hold very large amounts of crypto. When they make a single big transaction, they can move the whole market. Their trades often push prices up or down quickly, trigger stop-losses and liquidate retail traders, and break technical patterns instantly.

什麼是鯨魚？他們是擁有大量加密貨幣的人或機構。當他們進行一項大型交易時，他們可以轉移整個市場。他們的交易通常會迅速上升或降低價格，觸發停止損失並清算零售商人，並立即破壞技術模式。

For example, on March 8, a wallet moved 9,200 BTC (about $840 million). After the transaction, Bitcoin went up 7.3% quickly. But just hours later, the price went down 5.5%.

例如，3月8日，一個錢包移動了9,200 BTC（約8.4億美元）。交易結束後，比特幣迅速上漲了7.3％。但是僅僅幾個小時後，價格下跌了5.5％。

And in February, three wallets bought a total of 8.2 trillion PEPE tokens. After that, the price went up 610% in 2 days.

2月，三個錢包購買了總計8.2萬億個Pepe令牌。此後，價格在2天內上漲了610％。

But sometimes, even big changes in price happen quietly, like when NOT token went down 39% in 12 hours after 4 big wallets sold their tokens.

但是有時候，即使是靜靜的價格變化也會悄悄發生，例如在4個大錢包出售其令牌後的12個小時內，不代價下跌了39％。

So why are predictions failing? Well, over 72% of trades based on forecasts hit their stop-losses in April, according to reports. And even popular influencers like @CryptoKaleo and @RektCapital missed some of their predictions.

那麼為什麼預測失敗呢？好吧，根據預測，超過72％的交易在四月份遭受了停止損失。甚至像@Cryptokaleo和@rektcapital這樣的受歡迎的影響者也錯過了他們的一些預測。

Also, some coins like PEPE and BRETT went up in price a lot without any technical signs—it was just hype and whale entries that drove the market.

另外，一些佩佩（Pepe）和布雷特（Brett）等硬幣的價格很高，沒有任何技術跡象，只是炒作和鯨魚條目驅動了市場。

Studies have shown that whale trades make 3x more volatility than normal volume, and 75% of Bitcoin price drops over 5% happen after activity from big wallets.

研究表明，鯨魚交易的波動性比正常體積的波動性高3倍，而大錢包活動後，比特幣價格下跌了5％以上。

So what should traders do instead? They should stop trying to guess the future and start watching wallet movements using tools like Whale Alert or Lookonchain.

那麼交易者應該做什麼呢？他們應該停止嘗試猜測未來，並開始使用鯨魚警報或Lookonchain等工具開始觀看錢包動作。

It’s also important to pay attention to volume spikes and big order book walls, and to react to what’s happening now, not what you think might happen.

關注數量尖峰和大訂單牆，並對現在發生的事情做出反應，而不是您認為可能發生的事情也很重要。

Finally, it’s crucial to protect your money by using stop-losses and avoid going all-in.

最後，通過使用停止損失並避免全力以赴保護您的資金至關重要。

If you want to survive in crypto today, follow the whales, don’t fight them, respond quickly and smartly, and say goodbye to predictions and hello to awareness.

如果您想在今天的加密貨幣中生存，請跟隨鯨魚，不要與它們作鬥爭，迅速而聰明地做出回應，並告別預測並向意識打招呼。