在快速移动的加密货币世界中，预测过去是成功的黄金钥匙

在快速发展的加密货币世界中，预测过去是成功的黄金钥匙。交易者依靠技术分析，指标和图表模式。

In the quickly changing world of cryptocurrency, predictions used to be like the golden key to success. Traders would use technical analysis, indicators, and chart patterns to try and guess where the market was going next.

在快速不断变化的加密货币世界中，预测曾经是成功的黄金钥匙。交易者将使用技术分析，指标和图表模式来尝试猜测市场下一步的发展。

But today, the market is different. The biggest players, called whales, are controlling most of the action. And that means the old ways of predicting aren’t working as well anymore.

但是今天，市场有所不同。最大的球员，称为鲸鱼，正在控制大部分动作。这意味着旧的预测方式不再有效。

What are whales? They are people or institutions who hold very large amounts of crypto. When they make a single big transaction, they can move the whole market. Their trades often push prices up or down quickly, trigger stop-losses and liquidate retail traders, and break technical patterns instantly.

什么是鲸鱼？他们是拥有大量加密货币的人或机构。当他们进行一项大型交易时，他们可以转移整个市场。他们的交易通常会迅速上升或降低价格，触发停止损失并清算零售商人，并立即破坏技术模式。

For example, on March 8, a wallet moved 9,200 BTC (about $840 million). After the transaction, Bitcoin went up 7.3% quickly. But just hours later, the price went down 5.5%.

例如，3月8日，一个钱包移动了9,200 BTC（约8.4亿美元）。交易结束后，比特币迅速上涨了7.3％。但是仅仅几个小时后，价格下跌了5.5％。

And in February, three wallets bought a total of 8.2 trillion PEPE tokens. After that, the price went up 610% in 2 days.

2月，三个钱包购买了总计8.2万亿个Pepe令牌。此后，价格在2天内上涨了610％。

But sometimes, even big changes in price happen quietly, like when NOT token went down 39% in 12 hours after 4 big wallets sold their tokens.

但是有时候，即使是静静的价格变化也会悄悄发生，例如在4个大钱包出售其令牌后的12个小时内，不代价下跌了39％。

So why are predictions failing? Well, over 72% of trades based on forecasts hit their stop-losses in April, according to reports. And even popular influencers like @CryptoKaleo and @RektCapital missed some of their predictions.

那么为什么预测失败呢？好吧，根据预测，超过72％的交易在四月份遭受了停止损失。甚至像@Cryptokaleo和@rektcapital这样的受欢迎的影响者也错过了他们的一些预测。

Also, some coins like PEPE and BRETT went up in price a lot without any technical signs—it was just hype and whale entries that drove the market.

另外，一些佩佩（Pepe）和布雷特（Brett）等硬币的价格很高，没有任何技术迹象，只是炒作和鲸鱼条目驱动了市场。

Studies have shown that whale trades make 3x more volatility than normal volume, and 75% of Bitcoin price drops over 5% happen after activity from big wallets.

研究表明，鲸鱼交易的波动性比正常体积的波动性高3倍，而大钱包活动后，比特币价格下跌了5％以上。

So what should traders do instead? They should stop trying to guess the future and start watching wallet movements using tools like Whale Alert or Lookonchain.

那么交易者应该做什么呢？他们应该停止尝试猜测未来，并开始使用鲸鱼警报或Lookonchain等工具开始观看钱包动作。

It’s also important to pay attention to volume spikes and big order book walls, and to react to what’s happening now, not what you think might happen.

关注数量尖峰和大订单墙，并对现在发生的事情做出反应，而不是您认为可能发生的事情也很重要。

Finally, it’s crucial to protect your money by using stop-losses and avoid going all-in.

最后，通过使用停止损失并避免全力以赴保护您的资金至关重要。

If you want to survive in crypto today, follow the whales, don’t fight them, respond quickly and smartly, and say goodbye to predictions and hello to awareness.

如果您想在今天的加密货币中生存，请跟随鲸鱼，不要与它们作斗争，迅速而聪明地做出回应，并告别预测并向意识打招呼。