爆炸性的機構需求和激增的ETF流入使舊式市場模型破壞了

最近幾週，比特幣的韌性促使了加密行業最關注的分析師之一的前景急劇變化。

Explosive institutional demand and surging ETF inflows have shattered legacy market models, triggering a dramatic reversal from a top analyst and setting the stage for bitcoin's next breakout.

爆炸性的機構需求和激增的ETF流入使遺產市場模式破碎，引發了從頂級分析師的戲劇性逆轉，並為比特幣的下一個突破奠定了基礎。

Massive Institutional Demand Forces Top Analyst to Flip on Bitcoin Bull Cycle

大量的機構需求力量最高分析師可以翻轉比特幣牛週期

Bitcoin's resilience in recent weeks has prompted a sharp change in outlook from one of the crypto industry's most followed analysts. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onchain analytics platform Cryptoquant, has reversed his earlier bearish position and acknowledged that institutional inflows are significantly reshaping the landscape. On May 9, he wrote on social media platform X:

最近幾週，比特幣的韌性促使了加密行業最關注的分析師之一的前景急劇變化。 Onchain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju扭轉了他的早期看跌地位，並承認機構流入正在大大重塑景觀。 5月9日，他在社交媒體平台上寫道：

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

兩個月前，我說公牛週期結束了，但我錯了。比特幣銷售壓力正在緩解，大量流入通過ETF。

The revised view reflects what Ju sees as a fundamental transformation in bitcoin's market structure. He described the old market dynamics as predictable and driven by cyclical sell-offs from major holders.

修訂的觀點反映了JU所認為的比特幣市場結構的基本轉變。他將舊的市場動態描述為可預測的，並由主要持有人的周期性拋售驅動。

"In the past, the bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other. When retail liquidity dried up and old whales started cashing out, it was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak. It was like a game of Musical Chairs—everyone tried to cash out at once, and those who didn't ended up stuck with their holdings."

“過去，比特幣市場非常簡單。主要的玩家是老鯨魚，礦工和新的零售投資者，基本上將袋子傳遞給彼此。當零售流動性乾燥而零售的流動性開始且老鯨魚開始兌現時，相對容易預測週期的峰值。這就像一場音樂椅子一樣，這是一場音樂椅子，這是一個沒有兌現的人，並且那些沒有終止的人，並贏得了終點，他們的持續陣容都很穩定。

The analyst emphasized that such patterns allowed for clearer timing of market tops, especially during peak retail involvement. He explained that now the bitcoin market is being shaped by a wider range of participants, rendering previous models outdated. The market has become more diverse, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), institutional investors, and even government agencies considering buying BTC.

分析師強調，這種模式允許更清晰的市場上漲時間，尤其是在零售高峰期間。他解釋說，現在比特幣市場受到更廣泛的參與者的影響，使以前的模型過時了。市場已經變得越來越多樣化，擁有交易所交易的資金（ETF），MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR），機構投資者，甚至考慮購買BTC的政府機構。

The Cryptoquant CEO noted that in the past, profit-taking cycles began when whales sold at market peaks, triggering widespread sell-offs and price declines. According to him, this dynamic has changed, requiring a move away from traditional cycle theories. He said new and uncertain sources of liquidity and trading volume indicate a shift as the bitcoin market increasingly integrates with traditional finance (TradFi). The executive opined:

這位隱秘的首席執行官指出，過去，利潤週期始於市場峰值出售的鯨魚，引發了廣泛的拋售和價格下降。據他說，這種動態已經改變，需要擺脫傳統的周期理論。他說，隨著比特幣市場越來越多地與傳統金融（TradFI）融合，流動性和交易量的新來源表明，轉變。高管認為：

Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it's more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs. Despite the optimism, he still offered a cautious take on the short-term outlook: "Honestly, I still think the market is sluggish while absorbing new liquidity. Most indicators are hanging around the borderline. It doesn't feel like a clear bullish or bearish market right now. Of course, the recent price action is extremely bullish, but I'm talking about the profit-taking cycle."

現在，不用擔心舊鯨魚的銷售，而是關注來自機構和ETF的新流動性的重要性，因為這種新的湧入甚至超過了強大的鯨魚拋售。儘管有樂觀的態度，但他仍然對短期前景持謹慎態度：“老實說，我仍然認為市場在吸收新的流動性的同時疲軟。大多數指標都在邊界上徘徊。目前，這並不是一個明顯的看漲或看跌的市場。當然，最近的價格行動是極其牛仔，但我在談論貨運週期。”