爆炸性的机构需求和激增的ETF流入使旧式市场模型破坏了

最近几周，比特币的韧性促使了加密行业最关注的分析师之一的前景急剧变化。

Explosive institutional demand and surging ETF inflows have shattered legacy market models, triggering a dramatic reversal from a top analyst and setting the stage for bitcoin's next breakout.

爆炸性的机构需求和激增的ETF流入使遗产市场模式破碎，引发了从顶级分析师的戏剧性逆转，并为比特币的下一个突破奠定了基础。

Massive Institutional Demand Forces Top Analyst to Flip on Bitcoin Bull Cycle

大量的机构需求力量最高分析师可以翻转比特币牛周期

Bitcoin's resilience in recent weeks has prompted a sharp change in outlook from one of the crypto industry's most followed analysts. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onchain analytics platform Cryptoquant, has reversed his earlier bearish position and acknowledged that institutional inflows are significantly reshaping the landscape. On May 9, he wrote on social media platform X:

最近几周，比特币的韧性促使了加密行业最关注的分析师之一的前景急剧变化。 Onchain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju扭转了他的早期看跌地位，并承认机构流入正在大大重塑景观。 5月9日，他在社交媒体平台上写道：

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

两个月前，我说公牛周期结束了，但我错了。比特币销售压力正在缓解，大量流入通过ETF。

The revised view reflects what Ju sees as a fundamental transformation in bitcoin's market structure. He described the old market dynamics as predictable and driven by cyclical sell-offs from major holders.

修订的观点反映了JU所认为的比特币市场结构的基本转变。他将旧的市场动态描述为可预测的，并由主要持有人的周期性抛售驱动。

"In the past, the bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other. When retail liquidity dried up and old whales started cashing out, it was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak. It was like a game of Musical Chairs—everyone tried to cash out at once, and those who didn't ended up stuck with their holdings."

“过去，比特币市场非常简单。主要的玩家是老鲸鱼，矿工和新的零售投资者，基本上将袋子传递给彼此。当零售流动性干燥而零售的流动性开始且老鲸鱼开始兑现时，相对容易预测周期的峰值。这就像一场音乐椅子一样，这是一场音乐椅子，这是一个没有兑现的人，并且那些没有终止的人，并赢得了终点，他们的持续阵容都很稳定。

The analyst emphasized that such patterns allowed for clearer timing of market tops, especially during peak retail involvement. He explained that now the bitcoin market is being shaped by a wider range of participants, rendering previous models outdated. The market has become more diverse, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), institutional investors, and even government agencies considering buying BTC.

分析师强调，这种模式允许更清晰的市场上涨时间，尤其是在零售高峰期间。他解释说，现在比特币市场受到更广泛的参与者的影响，使以前的模型过时了。市场已经变得越来越多样化，拥有交易所交易的资金（ETF），MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR），机构投资者，甚至考虑购买BTC的政府机构。

The Cryptoquant CEO noted that in the past, profit-taking cycles began when whales sold at market peaks, triggering widespread sell-offs and price declines. According to him, this dynamic has changed, requiring a move away from traditional cycle theories. He said new and uncertain sources of liquidity and trading volume indicate a shift as the bitcoin market increasingly integrates with traditional finance (TradFi). The executive opined:

这位隐秘的首席执行官指出，过去，利润周期始于市场峰值出售的鲸鱼，引发了广泛的抛售和价格下降。据他说，这种动态已经改变，需要摆脱传统的周期理论。他说，随着比特币市场越来越多地与传统金融（TradFI）融合，流动性和交易量的新来源表明，转变。高管认为：

Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it's more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs. Despite the optimism, he still offered a cautious take on the short-term outlook: "Honestly, I still think the market is sluggish while absorbing new liquidity. Most indicators are hanging around the borderline. It doesn't feel like a clear bullish or bearish market right now. Of course, the recent price action is extremely bullish, but I'm talking about the profit-taking cycle."

现在，不用担心旧鲸鱼的销售，而是关注来自机构和ETF的新流动性的重要性，因为这种新的涌入甚至超过了强大的鲸鱼抛售。尽管有乐观的态度，但他仍然对短期前景持谨慎态度：“老实说，我仍然认为市场在吸收新的流动性的同时疲软。大多数指标都在边界上徘徊。目前，这并不是一个明显的看涨或看跌的市场。当然，最近的价格行动是极其牛仔，但我在谈论货运周期。”