以太坊的狂野騎行：導航波動和新風險

以太坊的波動並不是什麼新鮮事物，但是隨著借貸率和市場變化的上升，加密巨頭會出現新的風險嗎？讓我們潛水。

Ethereum's Wild Ride: Navigating Volatility and New Risks

以太坊的狂野騎行：導航波動和新風險

Ethereum, the darling of DeFi and NFTs, has always been known for its, shall we say, *spirited* price action. But with recent market shifts and rising concerns, it's time to ask: are we entering a new era of volatility and risk for the world's second-largest cryptocurrency?

Defi和Nfts的寵兒以太坊一直以其聞名，我們要說的是 *富有活力的價格行動。但是，隨著最近的市場轉變和不斷上升的擔憂，該問：我們是否進入了世界第二大加密貨幣的新時代和風險？

ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Confidence

ETF流入信號機構信心

Let's start with the good news. As of July 23, Ethereum-based ETFs have seen a whopping $332 million in new inflows over 14 consecutive days. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) is leading the charge, snagging $325 million of that total. This surge suggests that big players are increasingly seeing Ethereum as a legitimate and liquid asset. They're drawn to its role as the backbone for dApps, DeFi, and the whole NFT shebang.

讓我們從好消息開始。截至7月23日，以太坊的ETF連續14天的新流入率達到了3.32億美元。貝萊德（BlackRock）的iShares以太坊信託（ETHA）正在領導這一指控，其中3.25億美元的總數。這次激增表明，大型參與者越來越多地將以太坊視為合法和流動資產。它們被其作為Dapps，Defi和整個NFT Shebang的骨乾而吸引。

Bitcoin's Blues: A Shift in Institutional Appetite?

比特幣的藍調：機構食慾轉變？

Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs are singing a different tune, recording $85.9 million in outflows on the same day. While Bitcoin remains the king of crypto market cap, this divergence hints at a possible shift in institutional interest towards Ethereum. Factors driving this include Ethereum's ongoing tech upgrades (like the energy-efficient proof-of-stake model) and its expanding ecosystem.

同時，比特幣景點ETF正在演唱不同的音調，同一天的流出量為8,590萬美元。儘管比特幣仍然是加密市政府的國王，但這種差異暗示了機構利益向以太坊的轉變。推動此推動的因素包括以太坊正在進行的技術升級（例如節能驗證模型）及其擴展的生態系統。

The Borrowing Rate Buzzkill

借用利率嗡嗡聲

Now for the not-so-sunny side. Borrowing costs for wETH on platforms like Aave have been skyrocketing since early July. Utilization rates have jumped from 86% to a near-saturation point of 95%. This makes borrowing less profitable, potentially triggering a rapid unwind of positions, forced liquidations, and liquidity withdrawals. As Markus Thielen notes, these rising borrowing costs can make borrowing ETH unprofitable.

現在是不太弱的一面。自7月初以來，WETH在AAVE等平台上的借入費用一直在飛漲。利用率從86％躍升至近乎飽和點95％。這使得借入盈利較低，可能會引發立場，強迫清算和流動性提取的快速脫穎而出。正如馬庫斯·泰倫（Markus Thielen）所指出的那樣，這些不斷上漲的借貸成本可以使借貸ETH無利可圖。

Historical Context: The 'Ethereum is Dead' Narrative

歷史背景：“以太坊死了”的敘述

It's worth remembering that Ethereum has faced doomsayers before. Back in 2017, some folks were listing all sorts of reasons why Ethereum was doomed. Network congestion, lack of use cases, high volatility – the whole shebang. Back then, ETH was trading around $281.80. Today? It's hovering around $3,600, proving that Ethereum has a knack for surviving (and thriving) despite the naysayers.

值得記住的是，以太坊以前曾面臨過厄運者。早在2017年，一些人就列出了各種以太坊注定要失敗的原因。網絡擁塞，缺乏用例，高波動性 - 整個Shebang。當時，ETH的交易約為281.80美元。今天？它徘徊在3,600美元左右，證明以太坊在反對者中仍然有生存（繁榮）的訣竅。

A Word of Caution: Q3 Historically Weak

注意：Q3歷史上很弱

Historically, Q3 tends to be the weakest quarter for Ethereum, averaging around +8.19% compared to Q4's +22.59% (since 2013). So, while the ETF inflows are encouraging, history suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride.

從歷史上看，第三季度往往是以太坊的最弱季度，平均 +8.19％，而第四季度的 +22.59％（自2013年以來）。因此，儘管ETF流入令人鼓舞，但歷史表明我們可能會遇到顛簸。

My Take: Innovation Outweighs Short-Term Volatility

我的看法：創新超過短期波動

While the rising borrowing rates and historical trends raise valid concerns, I believe Ethereum's long-term potential remains strong. The continuous development and expansion of its ecosystem, coupled with growing institutional adoption through ETFs, suggest that Ethereum is more than just a fleeting trend. It's a foundational technology with the potential to reshape finance and other industries. The recent ETF inflows demonstrate this point clearly, signaling a shift toward use-case-driven crypto investments.

儘管借貸率和歷史趨勢的上升引起了有效的關注，但我認為以太坊的長期潛力仍然很強。其生態系統的持續發展和擴展，再加上通過ETF的製度採用不斷增長，這表明以太坊不僅僅是短暫的趨勢。這是一種基礎技術，具有重塑金融和其他行業的潛力。最近的ETF流入清楚地表明了這一點，這表明向用用例驅動的加密投資轉變。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, is Ethereum facing new risks? Absolutely. Is it going to zero tomorrow? Probably not. As always, buckle up, do your own research, and remember that in the world of crypto, volatility is just part of the fun. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to check my portfolio... and maybe pour myself a stiff drink.

那麼，以太坊面臨新風險嗎？絕對地。明天要零嗎？可能不是。與往常一樣，搭扣，進行自己的研究，並記住，在加密貨幣世界中，波動只是樂趣的一部分。現在，如果您能原諒我，我要去檢查我的投資組合……也許我會喝一杯僵硬的飲料。