以太坊可能已經達到了對比特幣的關鍵轉折點

ETH/BTC的價格比上周達到了38％以來的最低水平，自2020年1月以來

Ethereum (ETH) may have reached a pivotal turning point against bitcoin (BTC), which could signal the potential start of an “Alt season,” according to a recent Cryptoquant report.

根據最近的一份密碼報告，以太坊（ETH）可能已經對比特幣（BTC）達到了一個關鍵的轉折點，這可能標誌著“ ALT季節”的潛在開始。

The ETH/ BTC price ratio surged 38% last week after hitting its lowest level since January 2020, and onchain data suggests that this move is being driven by reduced selling pressure and growing institutional demand for ether.

ETH/ BTC的價格比上周達到了自2020年1月以來的最低水平後飆升了38％，OnChain數據表明，這一舉動是由銷售壓力降低和對Ether的機構需求不斷增長的驅動。

Breaking the Bottom: Ethereum’s Metrics Signal Long-Awaited Reversal Against Bitcoin

打破底部：以太坊的指標表明了期待已久的比特幣逆轉

Cryptoquant researchers note that ethereum’s relative valuation against bitcoin has entered an extreme undervaluation zone for the first time since 2019, based on the ETH/ BTC MVRV metric. Similar conditions in 2017–2019 were later followed by periods where ETH outperformed bitcoin by wide margins, suggesting strong mean-reversion potential.

加密研究人員指出，以太坊對比特幣的相對估值自2019年以來首次基於ETH/ BTC MVRV Metric，首次進入了一個極端低估的區域。在2017 - 2019年之後，類似的條件之後是ETH優於比特幣的時期，這表明均值逆轉電位強。

Notably, the report highlights that ETH’s spot trading volume relative to BTC spiked to 0.89 last week, reaching the highest level since August 2024 and signaling increased trader exposure to ether.

值得注意的是，該報告強調，ETH相對於BTC的現貨交易量上週飆升至0.89，達到了2024年8月以來的最高水平，並發出了交易者對以太幣的影響。

Cryptoquant researchers note that this aligns closely with 2019–2021 trends, during which ETH outpaced BTC by 4x in terms of trading volume. The surge in volume also coincides with the recent rebound in ETH prices, which could indicate renewed market confidence in ether.

加密研究人員指出，這與2019 - 2021年的趨勢緊密相吻合，在此期間，ETH在交易量方面將BTC超過4倍。數量的增長還與最近的ETH價格反彈相吻合，這可能表明市場對以太的信心增加了。

Furthermore, institutional interest in ether seems to be heating up, with ETH ETF holdings showing an increase since late April, according to Cryptoquant analysis.

此外，根據CryptoQuant的分析，對以太的機構興趣似乎正在加熱，ETH ETF持有量自4月下旬以來顯示出增加。

The researchers note that this development ties in with broader expectations of ether outperformance, which is being fueled by scaling upgrades and macroeconomic factors. The ETH/ BTC ETF holdings ratio and price ratio have risen concurrently, which indicates that institutions are making strategic shifts in their cryptocurrency portfolio allocations.

研究人員指出，這一發展與對以太表現的更廣泛期望有關，這是通過擴展升級和宏觀經濟因素所推動的。 ETH/ BTC ETF持有率和價格比同時提高，這表明機構正在對其加密貨幣投資組合分配進行戰略性轉變。

Exchange Outflows Hit 2020 Low

交換流出達到2020年低點

On the other hand, exchange inflows for ETH have plummeted to their lowest point since 2020, signaling a significant reduction in sell pressure on ether relative to bitcoin.

另一方面，ETH的交換流入量已經跌至自2020年以來的最低點，這表明相對於比特幣，銷售壓力顯著降低。

Cryptoquant researchers note that lower exchange inflows for ETH usually precede rallies in the ETH/ BTC price ratio. This occurs because fewer tokens are flowing into exchanges, reducing the potential for liquidation and promoting price stability.

隱式研究人員指出，較低的ETH交換流入通常是ETH/ BTC價格比的集會之前。之所以發生這種情況，是因為較少的令牌正在流入交換，從而減少了清算的潛力和促進價格穩定性。

However, despite the latest rally, Cryptoquant analysts caution that the ETH/ BTC ratio needs to break above its one-year moving average (MA) to confirm a prolonged upward trend.

然而，儘管有最新的集會，但加密分析師警告說，ETH/ BTC比率需要超過其一年移動平均線（MA）以確認延長上升趨勢。

The current levels of the ratio are closely watched as they mark the lowest since January 2020, and past instances of reaching such low extremes have signaled significant shifts in the market dynamic.

當前比率標誌著自2020年1月以來最低的比率水平，過去達到如此低的極端情況的實例表明，市場動態發生了重大變化。

To conclude, the analysis indicates that the ETH/ BTC price ratio must break above its 365-day MA to confirm a new leg up against bitcoin.

總而言之，分析表明，ETH/ BTC的價格比必須超過其365天的MA，以確認針對比特幣的新腿。

This move would be driven by a combination of reduced selling pressure, evident in the minimal exchange inflows, and increasing institutional demand, signaled by the rising ETF holdings and broader economic trends that favor ether.

這一舉動將由降低的銷售壓力（在最小的交換流入以及增加的機構需求中明顯的結合）驅動，這表明ETF持有量的上升和更廣泛的經濟趨勢有利於Ether。