以太坊可能已经达到了对比特币的关键转折点

ETH/BTC的价格比上周达到了38％以来的最低水平，自2020年1月以来

Ethereum (ETH) may have reached a pivotal turning point against bitcoin (BTC), which could signal the potential start of an “Alt season,” according to a recent Cryptoquant report.

根据最近的一份密码报告，以太坊（ETH）可能已经对比特币（BTC）达到了一个关键的转折点，这可能标志着“ ALT季节”的潜在开始。

The ETH/ BTC price ratio surged 38% last week after hitting its lowest level since January 2020, and onchain data suggests that this move is being driven by reduced selling pressure and growing institutional demand for ether.

ETH/ BTC的价格比上周达到了自2020年1月以来的最低水平后飙升了38％，OnChain数据表明，这一举动是由销售压力降低和对Ether的机构需求不断增长的驱动。

Breaking the Bottom: Ethereum’s Metrics Signal Long-Awaited Reversal Against Bitcoin

打破底部：以太坊的指标表明了期待已久的比特币逆转

Cryptoquant researchers note that ethereum’s relative valuation against bitcoin has entered an extreme undervaluation zone for the first time since 2019, based on the ETH/ BTC MVRV metric. Similar conditions in 2017–2019 were later followed by periods where ETH outperformed bitcoin by wide margins, suggesting strong mean-reversion potential.

加密研究人员指出，以太坊对比特币的相对估值自2019年以来首次基于ETH/ BTC MVRV Metric，首次进入了一个极端低估的区域。在2017 - 2019年之后，类似的条件之后是ETH优于比特币的时期，这表明均值逆转电位强。

Notably, the report highlights that ETH’s spot trading volume relative to BTC spiked to 0.89 last week, reaching the highest level since August 2024 and signaling increased trader exposure to ether.

值得注意的是，该报告强调，ETH相对于BTC的现货交易量上周飙升至0.89，达到了2024年8月以来的最高水平，并发出了交易者对以太币的影响。

Cryptoquant researchers note that this aligns closely with 2019–2021 trends, during which ETH outpaced BTC by 4x in terms of trading volume. The surge in volume also coincides with the recent rebound in ETH prices, which could indicate renewed market confidence in ether.

加密研究人员指出，这与2019 - 2021年的趋势紧密相吻合，在此期间，ETH在交易量方面将BTC超过4倍。数量的增长还与最近的ETH价格反弹相吻合，这可能表明市场对以太的信心增加了。

Furthermore, institutional interest in ether seems to be heating up, with ETH ETF holdings showing an increase since late April, according to Cryptoquant analysis.

此外，根据CryptoQuant的分析，对以太的机构兴趣似乎正在加热，ETH ETF持有量自4月下旬以来显示出增加。

The researchers note that this development ties in with broader expectations of ether outperformance, which is being fueled by scaling upgrades and macroeconomic factors. The ETH/ BTC ETF holdings ratio and price ratio have risen concurrently, which indicates that institutions are making strategic shifts in their cryptocurrency portfolio allocations.

研究人员指出，这一发展与对以太表现的更广泛期望有关，这是通过扩展升级和宏观经济因素所推动的。 ETH/ BTC ETF持有率和价格比同时提高，这表明机构正在对其加密货币投资组合分配进行战略性转变。

Exchange Outflows Hit 2020 Low

交换流出达到2020年低点

On the other hand, exchange inflows for ETH have plummeted to their lowest point since 2020, signaling a significant reduction in sell pressure on ether relative to bitcoin.

另一方面，ETH的交换流入量已经跌至自2020年以来的最低点，这表明相对于比特币，销售压力显着降低。

Cryptoquant researchers note that lower exchange inflows for ETH usually precede rallies in the ETH/ BTC price ratio. This occurs because fewer tokens are flowing into exchanges, reducing the potential for liquidation and promoting price stability.

隐式研究人员指出，较低的ETH交换流入通常是ETH/ BTC价格比的集会之前。之所以发生这种情况，是因为较少的令牌正在流入交换，从而减少了清算的潜力和促进价格稳定性。

However, despite the latest rally, Cryptoquant analysts caution that the ETH/ BTC ratio needs to break above its one-year moving average (MA) to confirm a prolonged upward trend.

然而，尽管有最新的集会，但加密分析师警告说，ETH/ BTC比率需要超过其一年移动平均线（MA）以确认延长上升趋势。

The current levels of the ratio are closely watched as they mark the lowest since January 2020, and past instances of reaching such low extremes have signaled significant shifts in the market dynamic.

当前比率标志着自2020年1月以来最低的比率水平，过去达到如此低的极端情况的实例表明，市场动态发生了重大变化。

To conclude, the analysis indicates that the ETH/ BTC price ratio must break above its 365-day MA to confirm a new leg up against bitcoin.

总而言之，分析表明，ETH/ BTC的价格比必须超过其365天的MA，以确认针对比特币的新腿。

This move would be driven by a combination of reduced selling pressure, evident in the minimal exchange inflows, and increasing institutional demand, signaled by the rising ETF holdings and broader economic trends that favor ether.

这一举动将由降低的销售压力（在最小的交换流入以及增加的机构需求中明显的结合）驱动，这表明ETF持有量的上升和更广泛的经济趋势有利于Ether。