以太坊 2024 年的價格預測是多少？

頂級分析師、媒體和基金經理對 2024 年底以太坊的平均定價為 6,404 美元。

After halving in value over the last year, Ethereum price predictions are now in focus, especially following the approval of physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April 2024. While some expected the same to happen for Ethereum ETFs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is yet to approve any spot-traded Ethereum ETFs.

在去年價值減半之後，以太坊價格預測現在成為焦點，特別是在2024 年4 月實體比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF) 獲得批准之後。但美國證券和交易委員會 (SEC) 尚未批准任何現貨交易的以太坊 ETF。

Despite the delay in approving Ethereum ETFs, some interesting developments took place in the cryptocurrency market. For instance, Grayscale, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, conducted a survey among funds that launched Bitcoin ETFs. The survey aimed to understand the funds' plans for launching Ethereum ETFs and investors' sentiments regarding the same.

儘管以太坊 ETF 的批准被推遲，但加密貨幣市場還是發生了一些有趣的發展。例如，全球最大的數位貨幣資產管理公司 Grayscale 對推出比特幣 ETF 的基金進行了一項調查。該調查旨在了解各基金推出以太坊 ETF 的計劃以及投資者對此的看法。

The survey was conducted between April 30 and May 2, 2024, and the results were published in a report titled "The Grayscale State of Digital Assets Q2 22.” The report highlighted several key findings:

該調查於2024年4月30日至5月2日期間進行，結果發佈在一份題為「22年第二季數位資產灰階狀態」的報告中。該報告強調了幾個關鍵發現：

25% of respondents believe ETF approval will boost Ethereum capital inflows.

25% 的受訪者認為 ETF 的批准將促進以太坊資本流入。

25% of respondents stated that Ethereum ETF approval will not impact investing theses.

25% 的受訪者表示，以太坊 ETF 的批准不會影響投資觀點。

43% of respondents said many funds will need to market spot-traded Ethereum ETFs.

43% 的受訪者表示，許多基金需要行銷現貨交易的以太坊 ETF。

The survey showed that a quarter of the respondents believe that the approval of spot-traded Ethereum ETFs will boost capital inflows into the cryptocurrency. However, another quarter of the respondents stated that such an approval will not impact investing theses in ETH.

調查顯示，四分之一的受訪者認為現貨交易以太坊ETF的批准將促進資本流入加密貨幣。然而，另有四分之一的受訪者表示，這樣的批准不會影響對 ETH 的投資。

Interestingly, 43% of the respondents highlighted that a lot of marketing will be required for spot-traded Ethereum ETFs, considering that many investors are still unaware of the concept. This could indicate a need for greater awareness campaigns among funds launching these ETFs.

有趣的是，43% 的受訪者強調，考慮到許多投資者仍然不知道現貨交易以太坊 ETF 的概念，因此需要進行大量行銷。這可能表明推出這些 ETF 的基金需要加強宣傳活動。

On the regulatory front, efforts are being made to render ETH more decentralized, following the launch of Lido Staking Derivative Tokens (LSD) in Q1 2024. Taking the number one spot with a 29% staking share, Lido launched the Community Staking Module (CSM) to alleviate centralization concerns, leaving the “security” designation behind.

在監管方面，繼2024 年第一季推出Lido 質押衍生代幣（LSD）之後，人們正在努力使ETH 更加去中心化。一。

Meanwhile, the rights to 140,000 ETH, valued at $366 million at the time, were sold off by Mt. Gox creditors on April 10, 2024, via the Tokyo District Court. This development came after the creditors voted in favor of selling the remaining cryptocurrencies in December 2023. The creditors began receiving fiat currency repayments in July 2023.

同時，Mt. Gox 債權人於 2024 年 4 月 10 日透過東京地方法院出售了當時價值 3.66 億美元的 140,000 ETH 的權利。這項進展是在債權人於 2023 年 12 月投票贊成出售剩餘的加密貨幣之後發生的。

This development marked the latest stage in the long-running saga of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings. The once-mighty cryptocurrency exchange filed for bankruptcy in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC in a hack. Over the years, the court-appointed trustee has been working to recover and sell the remaining cryptocurrencies to compensate the creditors.

這一進展標誌著 Mt. Gox 破產程序的長期傳奇進入了最新階段。這家曾經強大的加密貨幣交易所在一次黑客攻擊中損失了 85 萬比特幣後於 2014 年申請破產。多年來，法院指定的受託人一直致力於追回並出售剩餘的加密貨幣，以補償債權人。

As of August 6, in the last 30 days, ETH's price plunged 15.5%, hovering around $2,600. This is reminiscent of the plunge that happened in April 2022 following the start of the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle. This time, the Fed fund futures price in three rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one in September at an 82.7% probability. Depending on the severity of the need to stimulate the economy with rate cuts, this could be either a tailwind or a headwind.

截至8月6日，過去30天內，ETH價格暴跌15.5%，徘徊在2,600美元附近。這讓人想起2022年4月聯準會升息週期開始後發生的暴跌。此次，聯邦基金期貨定價為2024年底前三次降息，第一次降息發生在9月，機率為82.7%。根據透過降息刺激經濟的需要的嚴重程度，這可能是順風，也可能是逆風。

If there is a hard landing leading to a deep recession, it is unlikely that this will help ETH capital inflows because weakened discretionary spending would cut them short. On top of that, the expected Bitcoin sell-off pressure from Mt. Gox repayments may put further pressure on ETH. Moreover, a couple of days after ETH ETF approvals, it became clear that “sell the news” pressure was afoot, as ETH's price dropped by over 10%.

如果硬著陸導致嚴重衰退，這不太可能有助於 ETH 資本流入，因為可自由支配支出的減弱會縮短資本流入。最重要的是，Mt.Gox 償還預期帶來的比特幣拋售壓力可能會對 ETH 帶來進一步的壓力。此外，在 ETH ETF 獲批幾天后，隨著 ETH 價格下跌超過 10%，「拋售消息」壓力明顯顯現。

On the upside, Ethereum is firmly positioned as not only the cryptocurrency tailing Bitcoin but also one with higher growth potential. Its reliance on Layer 2 networks, plus sharding, makes it the primary candidate to take in all the traffic from multiple use-case scenarios, per VanEck analysis.

從好的方面來看，以太幣不僅被牢牢定位為追隨比特幣的加密貨幣，而且還是一種具有更高成長潛力的加密貨幣。根據 VanEck 的分析，它對第 2 層網路的依賴以及分片使其成為接收來自多個用例場景的所有流量的主要候選者。