以太坊 2024 年的价格预测是多少？

顶级分析师、媒体和基金经理对 2024 年底以太坊的平均定价为 6,404 美元。所有八个预测发布者都看好

After halving in value over the last year, Ethereum price predictions are now in focus, especially following the approval of physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April 2024. While some expected the same to happen for Ethereum ETFs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is yet to approve any spot-traded Ethereum ETFs.

在去年价值减半之后，以太坊价格预测现在成为焦点，特别是在 2024 年 4 月实物比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获得批准之后。虽然一些人预计以太坊 ETF 也会发生同样的情况，但美国证券和交易委员会 (SEC) 尚未批准任何现货交易的以太坊 ETF。

Despite the delay in approving Ethereum ETFs, some interesting developments took place in the cryptocurrency market. For instance, Grayscale, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, conducted a survey among funds that launched Bitcoin ETFs. The survey aimed to understand the funds' plans for launching Ethereum ETFs and investors' sentiments regarding the same.

尽管以太坊 ETF 的批准被推迟，但加密货币市场还是发生了一些有趣的发展。例如，全球最大的数字货币资产管理公司 Grayscale 对推出比特币 ETF 的基金进行了一项调查。该调查旨在了解各基金推出以太坊 ETF 的计划以及投资者对此的看法。

The survey was conducted between April 30 and May 2, 2024, and the results were published in a report titled "The Grayscale State of Digital Assets Q2 22.” The report highlighted several key findings:

该调查于2024年4月30日至5月2日期间进行，结果发布在一份题为“22年第二季度数字资产灰度状态”的报告中。该报告强调了几个关键发现：

25% of respondents believe ETF approval will boost Ethereum capital inflows.

25% 的受访者认为 ETF 的批准将促进以太坊资本流入。

25% of respondents stated that Ethereum ETF approval will not impact investing theses.

25% 的受访者表示，以太坊 ETF 的批准不会影响投资观点。

43% of respondents said many funds will need to market spot-traded Ethereum ETFs.

43% 的受访者表示，许多基金需要营销现货交易的以太坊 ETF。

The survey showed that a quarter of the respondents believe that the approval of spot-traded Ethereum ETFs will boost capital inflows into the cryptocurrency. However, another quarter of the respondents stated that such an approval will not impact investing theses in ETH.

调查显示，四分之一的受访者认为现货交易以太坊ETF的批准将促进资本流入加密货币。然而，另有四分之一的受访者表示，这样的批准不会影响对 ETH 的投资。

Interestingly, 43% of the respondents highlighted that a lot of marketing will be required for spot-traded Ethereum ETFs, considering that many investors are still unaware of the concept. This could indicate a need for greater awareness campaigns among funds launching these ETFs.

有趣的是，43% 的受访者强调，考虑到许多投资者仍然不知道现货交易以太坊 ETF 的概念，因此需要进行大量营销。这可能表明推出这些 ETF 的基金需要加强宣传活动。

On the regulatory front, efforts are being made to render ETH more decentralized, following the launch of Lido Staking Derivative Tokens (LSD) in Q1 2024. Taking the number one spot with a 29% staking share, Lido launched the Community Staking Module (CSM) to alleviate centralization concerns, leaving the “security” designation behind.

在监管方面，继 2024 年第一季度推出 Lido 质押衍生代币（LSD）之后，人们正在努力使 ETH 更加去中心化。Lido 推出了社区质押模块（CSM），以 29% 的质押份额位居第一。 ）以减轻集中化担忧，留下“安全”称号。

Meanwhile, the rights to 140,000 ETH, valued at $366 million at the time, were sold off by Mt. Gox creditors on April 10, 2024, via the Tokyo District Court. This development came after the creditors voted in favor of selling the remaining cryptocurrencies in December 2023. The creditors began receiving fiat currency repayments in July 2023.

与此同时，Mt. Gox 债权人于 2024 年 4 月 10 日通过东京地方法院出售了当时价值 3.66 亿美元的 140,000 ETH 的权利。这一进展是在债权人于 2023 年 12 月投票赞成出售剩余的加密货币之后发生的。债权人于 2023 年 7 月开始收到法定货币还款。

This development marked the latest stage in the long-running saga of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings. The once-mighty cryptocurrency exchange filed for bankruptcy in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC in a hack. Over the years, the court-appointed trustee has been working to recover and sell the remaining cryptocurrencies to compensate the creditors.

这一进展标志着 Mt. Gox 破产程序的长期传奇进入了最新阶段。这家曾经强大的加密货币交易所在一次黑客攻击中损失了 85 万比特币后于 2014 年申请破产。多年来，法院指定的受托人一直致力于追回并出售剩余的加密货币，以补偿债权人。

As of August 6, in the last 30 days, ETH's price plunged 15.5%, hovering around $2,600. This is reminiscent of the plunge that happened in April 2022 following the start of the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle. This time, the Fed fund futures price in three rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one in September at an 82.7% probability. Depending on the severity of the need to stimulate the economy with rate cuts, this could be either a tailwind or a headwind.

截至8月6日，过去30天内，ETH价格暴跌15.5%，徘徊在2600美元附近。这让人想起2022年4月美联储加息周期开始后发生的暴跌。此次，联邦基金期货定价为2024年底前三次降息，第一次降息发生在9月，概率为82.7%。根据通过降息刺激经济的需要的严重程度，这可能是顺风，也可能是逆风。

If there is a hard landing leading to a deep recession, it is unlikely that this will help ETH capital inflows because weakened discretionary spending would cut them short. On top of that, the expected Bitcoin sell-off pressure from Mt. Gox repayments may put further pressure on ETH. Moreover, a couple of days after ETH ETF approvals, it became clear that “sell the news” pressure was afoot, as ETH's price dropped by over 10%.

如果硬着陆导致严重衰退，这不太可能有助于 ETH 资本流入，因为可自由支配支出的减弱会缩短资本流入。最重要的是，Mt.Gox 偿还预期带来的比特币抛售压力可能会给 ETH 带来进一步的压力。此外，在 ETH ETF 获批几天后，随着 ETH 价格下跌超过 10%，“抛售消息”压力明显显现。

On the upside, Ethereum is firmly positioned as not only the cryptocurrency tailing Bitcoin but also one with higher growth potential. Its reliance on Layer 2 networks, plus sharding, makes it the primary candidate to take in all the traffic from multiple use-case scenarios, per VanEck analysis.

从好的方面来看，以太坊不仅被牢牢定位为追随比特币的加密货币，而且还是一种具有更高增长潜力的加密货币。根据 VanEck 的分析，它对第 2 层网络的依赖以及分片使其成为接收来自多个用例场景的所有流量的主要候选者。