以太坊 MVRV 比率正在形成類似過去兩個週期的模式

一位量化分析師根據這一流行的鏈上指標的趨勢解釋了以太坊現在如何處於第二輪牛市階段。

An analyst at Quant has observed a pattern in Ethereum's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, suggesting that the second phase of a bull run is now underway. The MVRV Ratio is a measure of the ratio between an asset's market capitalization and its realized capitalization.

Quant 的一位分析師觀察到以太坊的市值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率的模式，顯示牛市的第二階段正在進行中。 MVRV 比率是資產市值與其已實現資本之間比率的衡量標準。

The realized capitalization is calculated by assuming that the value of each token is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the network. This model provides an estimate of the total amount of capital that investors have put into the asset.

已實現資本化的計算方法是假設每個代幣的價值等於其最後一次在網路上交易的價格。該模型提供了投資者投入資產的資本總額的估計。

By comparing the market capitalization, which represents the total value currently held by holders, to this initial investment, the MVRV Ratio indicator provides insight into the net profit or loss experienced by investors as a whole.

透過將市值（代表持有者目前持有的總價值）與初始投資進行比較，MVRV 比率指標可以洞察投資者整體所經歷的淨利潤或虧損。

When the metric's value exceeds 1, it indicates that the market capitalization is outpacing the realized capitalization, suggesting that investors are generally experiencing a net profit. Conversely, values below the threshold indicate the prevalence of loss in the market.

當該指標的值超過 1 時，表示市值超過已實現資本化，表示投資者普遍獲得淨利。相反，低於閾值的值表示市場上普遍存在損失。

The chart shared by the analyst shows how the value of the Ethereum MVRV Ratio has changed over the last few years:

分析師分享的圖表顯示了過去幾年以太坊 MVRV 比率的價值如何變化：

notably, the Ethereum MVRV Ratio surged to a relatively high level during the first quarter of the year, coinciding with the price rally. However, during the bearish consolidation that followed the run, the indicator experienced a cooldown, returning to the neutral 1 level.

值得注意的是，以太坊 MVRV 比率在今年第一季飆升至相對較高的水平，與價格上漲同時發生。然而，在隨後的看跌盤整過程中，該指標經歷了一段冷卻期，回到了中性的1水平。

With the latest surge in the cryptocurrency, the MVRV Ratio has once again seen a reversal to the upside. Interestingly, a similar pattern was observed during the last two bull markets, as marked by the quant in the chart.

隨著加密貨幣的最新飆升，MVRV 比率再次出現逆轉。有趣的是，如圖表中的量化指標所示，在過去兩次牛市中也觀察到了類似的模式。

These runs both appear to have involved two phases where the Ethereum MVRV Ratio reached extreme levels, with a cooldown occurring between the two phases.

這些運行似乎都涉及以太坊 MVRV 比率達到極端水平的兩個階段，並且兩個階段之間發生冷卻。

If the current cycle is following a pattern like this, then the rally earlier in the year could be the first of these phases, with the most recent rally potentially taking the role of the second one.

如果當前週期遵循這樣的模式，那麼今年早些時候的反彈可能是這些階段中的第一個階段，而最近的反彈可能會扮演第二個階段的角色。

In both of the previous two cycles, the secondary bull run took the price to substantially higher levels than the first one, so if this pattern holds for the current cycle, Ethereum might soon surpass the high from earlier in the year.

在前兩個週期中，第二輪多頭市場使價格大幅高於第一個週期，因此，如果當前週期保持這種模式，以太坊可能很快就會超過今年早些時候的高點。