以太坊 MVRV 比率正在形成类似于过去两个周期的模式

一位量化分析师根据这一流行的链上指标的趋势解释了以太坊现在如何处于第二轮牛市阶段。

An analyst at Quant has observed a pattern in Ethereum's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, suggesting that the second phase of a bull run is now underway. The MVRV Ratio is a measure of the ratio between an asset's market capitalization and its realized capitalization.

Quant 的一位分析师观察到以太坊的市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 比率的模式，表明牛市的第二阶段正在进行中。 MVRV 比率是资产市值与其已实现资本之间比率的衡量标准。

The realized capitalization is calculated by assuming that the value of each token is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the network. This model provides an estimate of the total amount of capital that investors have put into the asset.

已实现资本化的计算方法是假设每个代币的价值等于其最后一次在网络上交易的价格。该模型提供了投资者投入资产的资本总额的估计。

By comparing the market capitalization, which represents the total value currently held by holders, to this initial investment, the MVRV Ratio indicator provides insight into the net profit or loss experienced by investors as a whole.

通过将市值（代表持有人当前持有的总价值）与初始投资进行比较，MVRV 比率指标可以洞察投资者整体所经历的净利润或亏损。

When the metric's value exceeds 1, it indicates that the market capitalization is outpacing the realized capitalization, suggesting that investors are generally experiencing a net profit. Conversely, values below the threshold indicate the prevalence of loss in the market.

当该指标的值超过 1 时，表明市值超过已实现资本化，表明投资者普遍获得净利润。相反，低于阈值的值表明市场上普遍存在损失。

The chart shared by the analyst shows how the value of the Ethereum MVRV Ratio has changed over the last few years:

分析师分享的图表显示了过去几年以太坊 MVRV 比率的价值如何变化：

notably, the Ethereum MVRV Ratio surged to a relatively high level during the first quarter of the year, coinciding with the price rally. However, during the bearish consolidation that followed the run, the indicator experienced a cooldown, returning to the neutral 1 level.

值得注意的是，以太坊 MVRV 比率在今年第一季度飙升至相对较高的水平，与价格上涨同时发生。然而，在随后的看跌盘整过程中，该指标经历了一段冷却期，回到了中性的1水平。

With the latest surge in the cryptocurrency, the MVRV Ratio has once again seen a reversal to the upside. Interestingly, a similar pattern was observed during the last two bull markets, as marked by the quant in the chart.

随着加密货币的最新飙升，MVRV 比率再次出现逆转。有趣的是，正如图表中的量化指标所示，在过去两次牛市中也观察到了类似的模式。

These runs both appear to have involved two phases where the Ethereum MVRV Ratio reached extreme levels, with a cooldown occurring between the two phases.

这些运行似乎都涉及以太坊 MVRV 比率达到极端水平的两个阶段，并且两个阶段之间发生冷却。

If the current cycle is following a pattern like this, then the rally earlier in the year could be the first of these phases, with the most recent rally potentially taking the role of the second one.

如果当前周期遵循这样的模式，那么今年早些时候的反弹可能是这些阶段中的第一个阶段，而最近的反弹可能会扮演第二个阶段的角色。

In both of the previous two cycles, the secondary bull run took the price to substantially higher levels than the first one, so if this pattern holds for the current cycle, Ethereum might soon surpass the high from earlier in the year.

在前两个周期中，第二轮牛市使价格大幅高于第一个周期，因此，如果当前周期保持这种模式，以太坊可能很快就会超过今年早些时候的高点。