Ethereum (ETH) Price Waits in the Wings, Between Consolidation and Potential Recovery

Ethereum price is in a holding phase. Will it continue to recover or is a new consolidation phase to be expected?

ETH/USD Technical Analysis

The ETH price trades at $1,800, consolidating below the key resistance of $1,850, a level to break to validate further bullish continuation. The weekly performance of +13%, accompanied by a volume jump (+76%), confirms a solid technical rebound. The long-term trend remains bullish (200 SMA), while the medium-term trend (50 SMA) stays bearish, with a reversal expected above $2,104. In the short term, buyers regain control (20 SMA).

Momentum is recovering, supported by oscillators. Major resistance zones are at $2,105 and $2,556, while critical supports stand at $1,470 and $1,380. Market sentiment leans toward greed, signaling a return of risk appetite. Finally, moderate inflows into ETH spot ETFs confirm measured but present institutional support.

This current technical analysis was carried as part of a collaboration with Elyfe, investor and educator on the cryptocurrency market. Follow him on Twitter for more market commentary.

Derivatives Analysis (ETH/USDT)

On the derivatives markets side, open interest remains stable, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from speculators. The CVD (cumulative volume delta) shows balanced buy and sell flows, confirming no dominant direction. Liquidations are low on long positions, indicating moderate selling pressure. Finally, the funding rate is neutral, revealing a slightly bullish position without excess, hence no immediate risk of a harsh reversal.

Seller liquidation zones around $1,870, $2,120, and $2,875 may generate bullish accelerations if breached but also serve as potential distribution zones if the market shows signs of exhaustion. On the buyer side, thresholds at $1,730, $1,700, $1,600, and $1,500 are exposed to flush risk if broken but also offer absorption or institutional accumulation opportunities for medium-term repositioning.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecasts

As the saying goes, "never count out the bears, and don't tease the bull." A pessimistic outlook anticipates further consolidation below the 50 SMA at $2,104, paving the way for a deeper correction. This bearish scenario could unfold with a breakdown of the critical support at $1,380, inviting further declines toward the Fib level at $1,063 or even the 200 SMA on a lower time frame.

Conversely, a optimistic scenario envisions a breakout above the 50 SMA, sparking a continuation of the bullish market. This bullish leg could propel ETH to reach the next resistance at $2,556 or even higher if volume and momentum sustain the move. A decisive close above $2,104 would be needed to invalidate the current 50 SMA bearish bias and open up possibilities for a broader uptrend.

Comment:

The bias remains neutral to bearish for now, awaiting a clear reversal signal. Upcoming macroeconomic indicators (US GDP, PCE) could be decisive in validating or invalidating this scenario.

Conclusion

Ethereum shows encouraging technical signals, supported by renewed activity and a more constructive market sentiment. However, without complete validation at key levels or a clear breakout/breakdown from crucial zones, caution remains warranted. The market is in a balanced phase, where reactions at sensitive zones will guide confirmation or invalidation of the current bias. In this context, closely monitoring price reactions at strategic levels will be essential to confirm or adjust current forecasts.

Finally, remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can move rapidly due to other more fundamental factors.

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Spécialiste en analyse technique, Elyfe décrypte les tendances graphiques des marchés des cryptomonnaies avec une approche rigoureuse et en constante évolution. À travers ses analyses détaillées, il apporte un regard éclairé sur la dynamique des prix, aidant les investisseurs et passionnés à mieux comprendre et anticiper les mouvements du marché.