以太坊（ETH）超過了比特幣（BTC）的增長，這引發了即將到來的山寨幣的希望

以太坊最近在增長方面超過了比特幣，導致ETH/BTC交易對急劇上升。這次激增引發了人們對即將到來的Altcoin賽季的希望。

Ethereum has recently outpaced Bitcoin in terms of growth, leading to a sharp rise in the ETH/BTC trading pair. This surge has sparked hopes of an upcoming altcoin season. However, a closer look at historical data suggests that these expectations may be premature.

以太坊最近在增長方面超過了比特幣，導致ETH/BTC交易對急劇上升。這次激增引發了人們對即將到來的Altcoin賽季的希望。但是，仔細研究歷史數據表明這些期望可能為時過早。

The Breakout That Imbued Hope

充滿希望的突破

充滿希望的突破

The ETH/BTC pair has recently recorded its first breakout since December 2024. For the first time in five months, the pair posted a higher low, which is generally considered a sign of an uptrend. This breakout is significant, marking a 34% rise in just one week.

ETH/BTC對最近已經記錄了自2024年12月以來的第一次突破。這是五個月來的第一次，這對較高的低點，通常被認為是上升趨勢的標誌。這一突破很重要，僅在僅一周內就標誌著34％的增長。

Such a rise hasn’t been seen in almost three years. The last comparable surge occurred in July 2022 when the ETH/BTC pair shot up 56% in a month and a half. Despite this encouraging price action, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can sustain and spark a broad altcoin rally.

近三年來沒有看到這樣的崛起。最後一場可比的激增發生在2022年7月，當時ETH/BTC對在一個月半內的命中率上升了56％。儘管這種令人鼓舞的價格行動，但這種勢頭是否可以維持並引發廣泛的Altcoin集會，還有待觀察。

The rapid growth of Ethereum in 2022 offers insight into the current situation. Back then, Ethereum’s price surged by 121% in just over a month, climbing from about $1,800 to nearly $4,000. This impressive rally also managed to trigger a wider altcoin season.

以太坊在2022年的快速增長提供了對當前情況的見解。那時，以太坊的價格在一個多個月的時間內飆升了121％，從約1,800美元攀升至近4,000美元。這場令人印象深刻的集會也設法引發了更廣泛的Altcoin賽季。

Historical data from BlockchainCenter shows that following the July 2022 bull run, the market confirmed an altcoin season in August 2022. The critical condition was met: 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies managed to outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days, with the altcoin index rising to 96.

BlockchainCenter的歷史數據表明，在2022年7月的公牛運行之後，市場證實了2022年8月的Altcoin季節。遇到了危急狀況：在過去的90天內，在前50個加密貨幣中，有75％的加密貨幣在過去的90天中均優於比特幣，而Altcoin Index則增加到96。

However, at the moment, the altcoin season index stands at 18, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates. Additionally, only 18% of the top 50 coins are currently outperforming Bitcoin. These metrics highlight that despite the recent ETH/BTC breakout, the likelihood of a full-fledged altcoin season remains low in the near term.

但是，目前，Altcoin季節指數為18個，表明比特幣仍然占主導地位。此外，目前只有50個硬幣中只有18％超過比特幣。這些指標強調，儘管最近發生了ETH/BTC突破，但在短期內，成熟的Altcoin季節的可能性仍然很低。

But it is not completely out of the question. If the altcoins run up in the coming weeks by tagging on to Bitcoin’s growth, the market could witness an altcoin season before the end of Q2.

但這並不是完全不可能的。如果山寨幣在未來幾週內通過標記比特幣的增長，那麼市場可能會在第二季度結束之前見證山寨幣季節。

Can ETH Price Imitate The Past?

Eth Price可以模仿過去嗎？

Eth Price可以模仿過去嗎？

Ethereum’s price rally may not be able to match the dramatic growth seen in July 2022. Although ETH has risen 32% over the past several days, it would require an additional 67% increase to reach $4,004 and replicate the previous surge, which would require consistent bullish market conditions.

以太坊的價格集會可能無法與2022年7月的急劇增長相匹配。儘管ETH在過去幾天中已增長了32％，但需要增加67％的增加才能達到4,004美元，並複制先前的激增，這將需要一致的看漲市場條件。

A more practical target for Ethereum would be to breach and hold the $2,814 support level. Successfully flipping this resistance into support could enable further gains, with a potential move beyond $3,000.

以太坊的一個更實用的目標是違反2,814美元的支持水平。成功地將這種抵抗力轉向支持可以帶來進一步的收益，並有可能超過3,000美元。

However, this bullish outlook depends on maintaining key support levels. If Ethereum fails to breach $2,654 and instead drops below $2,344 or even $2,141, it could erase recent gains and invalidate the positive price thesis.

但是，這種看漲的前景取決於維持關鍵支持水平。如果以太坊未能違反2,654美元，而跌至2,344美元甚至2,141美元以下，它可能會消除最近的收益並使正價論文無效。