以太坊（ETH）超过了比特币（BTC）的增长，这引发了即将到来的山寨币的希望

以太坊最近在增长方面超过了比特币，导致ETH/BTC交易对急剧上升。这次激增引发了人们对即将到来的Altcoin赛季的希望。

Ethereum has recently outpaced Bitcoin in terms of growth, leading to a sharp rise in the ETH/BTC trading pair. This surge has sparked hopes of an upcoming altcoin season. However, a closer look at historical data suggests that these expectations may be premature.

以太坊最近在增长方面超过了比特币，导致ETH/BTC交易对急剧上升。这次激增引发了人们对即将到来的Altcoin赛季的希望。但是，仔细研究历史数据表明这些期望可能为时过早。

The Breakout That Imbued Hope

充满希望的突破

充满希望的突破

The ETH/BTC pair has recently recorded its first breakout since December 2024. For the first time in five months, the pair posted a higher low, which is generally considered a sign of an uptrend. This breakout is significant, marking a 34% rise in just one week.

ETH/BTC对最近已经记录了自2024年12月以来的第一次突破。这是五个月来的第一次，这对较高的低点，通常被认为是上升趋势的标志。这一突破很重要，仅在仅一周内就标志着34％的增长。

Such a rise hasn’t been seen in almost three years. The last comparable surge occurred in July 2022 when the ETH/BTC pair shot up 56% in a month and a half. Despite this encouraging price action, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can sustain and spark a broad altcoin rally.

近三年来没有看到这样的崛起。最后一场可比的激增发生在2022年7月，当时ETH/BTC对在一个月半内的命中率上升了56％。尽管这种令人鼓舞的价格行动，但这种势头是否可以维持并引发广泛的Altcoin集会，还有待观察。

The rapid growth of Ethereum in 2022 offers insight into the current situation. Back then, Ethereum’s price surged by 121% in just over a month, climbing from about $1,800 to nearly $4,000. This impressive rally also managed to trigger a wider altcoin season.

以太坊在2022年的快速增长提供了对当前情况的见解。那时，以太坊的价格在一个多个月的时间内飙升了121％，从约1,800美元攀升至近4,000美元。这场令人印象深刻的集会也设法引发了更广泛的Altcoin赛季。

Historical data from BlockchainCenter shows that following the July 2022 bull run, the market confirmed an altcoin season in August 2022. The critical condition was met: 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies managed to outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days, with the altcoin index rising to 96.

BlockchainCenter的历史数据表明，在2022年7月的公牛运行之后，市场证实了2022年8月的Altcoin季节。遇到了危急状况：在过去的90天内，在前50个加密货币中，有75％的加密货币在过去的90天中均优于比特币，而Altcoin Index则增加到96。

However, at the moment, the altcoin season index stands at 18, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates. Additionally, only 18% of the top 50 coins are currently outperforming Bitcoin. These metrics highlight that despite the recent ETH/BTC breakout, the likelihood of a full-fledged altcoin season remains low in the near term.

但是，目前，Altcoin季节指数为18个，表明比特币仍然占主导地位。此外，目前只有50个硬币中只有18％超过比特币。这些指标强调，尽管最近发生了ETH/BTC突破，但在短期内，成熟的Altcoin季节的可能性仍然很低。

But it is not completely out of the question. If the altcoins run up in the coming weeks by tagging on to Bitcoin’s growth, the market could witness an altcoin season before the end of Q2.

但这并不是完全不可能的。如果山寨币在未来几周内通过标记比特币的增长，那么市场可能会在第二季度结束之前见证山寨币季节。

Can ETH Price Imitate The Past?

Eth Price可以模仿过去吗？

Eth Price可以模仿过去吗？

Ethereum’s price rally may not be able to match the dramatic growth seen in July 2022. Although ETH has risen 32% over the past several days, it would require an additional 67% increase to reach $4,004 and replicate the previous surge, which would require consistent bullish market conditions.

以太坊的价格集会可能无法与2022年7月的急剧增长相匹配。尽管ETH在过去几天中已增长了32％，但需要增加67％的增加才能达到4,004美元，并复制先前的激增，这将需要一致的看涨市场条件。

A more practical target for Ethereum would be to breach and hold the $2,814 support level. Successfully flipping this resistance into support could enable further gains, with a potential move beyond $3,000.

以太坊的一个更实用的目标是违反2,814美元的支持水平。成功地将这种抵抗力转向支持可以带来进一步的收益，并有可能超过3,000美元。

However, this bullish outlook depends on maintaining key support levels. If Ethereum fails to breach $2,654 and instead drops below $2,344 or even $2,141, it could erase recent gains and invalidate the positive price thesis.

但是，这种看涨的前景取决于维持关键支持水平。如果以太坊未能违反2,654美元，而跌至2,344美元甚至2,141美元以下，它可能会消除最近的收益并使正价论文无效。