以太坊（ETH）可能會進入2020年類似於比特幣（BTC）的積累和壓縮階段

在過去的幾個月中，資產一直保持在下降的平行通道中，這是一個由較低高和較低低點定義的看跌。

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $1,826. Over the past few months, the asset has remained within a descending parallel channel—a bearish formation defined by lower highs and lower lows. Since early January 2025, Ethereum has followed this trend without a decisive breakout.

以太坊（ETH）目前的交易約為1,826美元。在過去的幾個月中，資產一直保持在下降的平行通道中，這是一個由較低高和較低低點定義的看跌。自2025年1月初以來，以太坊一直在沒有決定性突破的情況下遵循這一趨勢。

However, there are signs that the downward move may be exhausting, setting the stage for a potential shift back toward higher prices.

但是，有跡象表明，向下移動可能令人筋疲力盡，這為潛在轉移到更高的價格而奠定了基礎。

Some analysts believe this pattern closely mirrors Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2020, when BTC consolidated around $8,000 before beginning a major rally to $64,000. According to them, Ethereum could now be entering a similar phase of accumulation and compression.

一些分析師認為，這種模式在2020年的價格行為緊密反映了BTC在8,000美元左右的$ 8,000匯總，然後開始進行重大集會至64,000美元。據他們說，以太坊現在可以進入類似的積累和壓縮階段。

Technical Indicators Suggest ETH Reversal May Be Building

技術指標表明ETH逆轉可能正在建立

Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.79—above the neutral 50 level—which points to growing buying momentum. The indicator also shows a bullish divergence from previous lows, a signal that downward pressure is weakening.

以太坊的相對強度指數（RSI）為56.79，是中立的50級，指出了購買勢頭的增長。該指標還顯示了與以前低點的看漲差異，這表明向下壓力正在減弱。

ETH has also managed to climb above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,754 and is now hovering around the 50-day EMA, currently near $1,858. These levels serve as short-term indicators of sentiment. Holding above them supports a shift in momentum toward the upside.

ETH還設法攀升至20天的指數移動平均線（EMA），價格為1,754美元，現在徘徊在50天的EMA左右，目前接近1,858美元。這些級別是情感的短期指標。將它們握在上面支持向上的動量轉變。

However, Ethereum still faces resistance at the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, located at $2,143 and $2,462, respectively. These longer-term moving averages are often used to confirm broader trend reversals. A sustained breakout above these levels, especially with strong trading volume, would add weight to the bullish thesis.

但是，以太坊仍面臨100天和200天EMA的阻力，分別位於2,143美元和2,462美元。這些長期移動平均值通常用於確認更廣泛的趨勢逆轉。超過這些水平的持續突破，尤其是在強大的交易量中，將增加看漲論文的體重。

The upper boundary of the descending channel sits near the $1,950 to $2,000 range. This zone remains the most immediate resistance level. If ETH can breach it, the next major targets are $2,400 and $2,800—both of which served as support during the earlier phases of the downtrend.

下降通道的上邊界位於$ 1,950到$ 2,000的範圍內。該區域仍然是最直接的電阻水平。如果ETH可以違反它，那麼下一個主要目標是$ 2,400和2,800美元，這都是在下降趨勢的較早階段的支持。

On the downside, key support is holding at $1,550, a level that helped prevent further declines in March and April. A break below this level could open the door to further losses, possibly down to $1,400.

不利的一面是，主要的支持持有1,550美元，這一水平有助於防止3月和4月進一步下降。低於此水平的休息可能會打開進一步損失的大門，可能會降至1,400美元。

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On-Chain Activity Supports Long-Term Holding Behavior

鏈活動支持長期保持行為

Several key on-chain indicators suggest Ethereum is being accumulated rather than sold. Data from platforms like CryptoQuant shows a consistent drop in ETH held on exchanges. When investors move coins off trading platforms and into private wallets, it usually indicates long-term holding intentions and reduced sell pressure.

幾個關鍵的鍊鍊指標表明以太坊正在積累而不是出售。來自加密量牌等平台的數據顯示，交流中的ETH持續下降。當投資者將硬幣從交易平台轉移到私人錢包時，通常表明長期持有意圖並減輕了賣出壓力。

At the same time, staking activity on the Ethereum network continues to rise. More ETH is being locked into Ethereum 2.0, further lowering the available supply for trading. Dormant coins—those untouched for long periods—also remain unmoved, which often suggests confidence among long-term holders.

同時，以太坊網絡上的積分活動不斷上升。更多的ETH被鎖定在以太坊2.0中，進一步降低了可用的交易供應。休眠的硬幣 - 長期未觸及的硬幣也保持不動，這通常暗示著長期持有人的信心。

These on-chain signals mirror what was seen in Bitcoin’s run-up in late 2020, where declining exchange balances and rising wallet activity signaled accumulation before a major breakout. As Bitcoin went on to rally from around $7,000 to $64,000 within a year, similar trends in Ethereum could herald a substantial price move.

這些鏈信號反映了2020年末比特幣的起床中所看到的，在重大突破之前，交換餘額和錢包活動的下降表明積累。隨著比特幣在一年內從7,000美元降至64,000美元，以太坊的類似趨勢可能會預示著巨大的價格轉移。