以太坊（ETH）可能会进入2020年类似于比特币（BTC）的积累和压缩阶段

在过去的几个月中，资产一直保持在下降的平行通道中，这是一个由较低高和较低低点定义的看跌。

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $1,826. Over the past few months, the asset has remained within a descending parallel channel—a bearish formation defined by lower highs and lower lows. Since early January 2025, Ethereum has followed this trend without a decisive breakout.

以太坊（ETH）目前的交易约为1,826美元。在过去的几个月中，资产一直保持在下降的平行通道中，这是一个由较低高和较低低点定义的看跌。自2025年1月初以来，以太坊一直在没有决定性突破的情况下遵循这一趋势。

However, there are signs that the downward move may be exhausting, setting the stage for a potential shift back toward higher prices.

但是，有迹象表明，向下移动可能令人筋疲力尽，这为潜在转移到更高的价格而奠定了基础。

Some analysts believe this pattern closely mirrors Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2020, when BTC consolidated around $8,000 before beginning a major rally to $64,000. According to them, Ethereum could now be entering a similar phase of accumulation and compression.

一些分析师认为，这种模式在2020年的价格行为紧密反映了BTC在8,000美元左右的$ 8,000汇总，然后开始进行重大集会至64,000美元。据他们说，以太坊现在可以进入类似的积累和压缩阶段。

Technical Indicators Suggest ETH Reversal May Be Building

技术指标表明ETH逆转可能正在建立

Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.79—above the neutral 50 level—which points to growing buying momentum. The indicator also shows a bullish divergence from previous lows, a signal that downward pressure is weakening.

以太坊的相对强度指数（RSI）为56.79，是中立的50级，指出了购买势头的增长。该指标还显示了与以前低点的看涨差异，这表明向下压力正在减弱。

ETH has also managed to climb above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,754 and is now hovering around the 50-day EMA, currently near $1,858. These levels serve as short-term indicators of sentiment. Holding above them supports a shift in momentum toward the upside.

ETH还设法攀升至20天的指数移动平均线（EMA），价格为1,754美元，现在徘徊在50天的EMA左右，目前接近1,858美元。这些级别是情感的短期指标。将它们握在上面支持向上的动量转变。

However, Ethereum still faces resistance at the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, located at $2,143 and $2,462, respectively. These longer-term moving averages are often used to confirm broader trend reversals. A sustained breakout above these levels, especially with strong trading volume, would add weight to the bullish thesis.

但是，以太坊仍面临100天和200天EMA的阻力，分别位于2,143美元和2,462美元。这些长期移动平均值通常用于确认更广泛的趋势逆转。超过这些水平的持续突破，尤其是在强劲的交易量中，将增加看涨论文的重量。

The upper boundary of the descending channel sits near the $1,950 to $2,000 range. This zone remains the most immediate resistance level. If ETH can breach it, the next major targets are $2,400 and $2,800—both of which served as support during the earlier phases of the downtrend.

下降通道的上边界位于$ 1,950到$ 2,000的范围内。该区域仍然是最直接的电阻水平。如果ETH可以违反它，那么下一个主要目标是$ 2,400和2,800美元，这都是在下降趋势的较早阶段的支持。

On the downside, key support is holding at $1,550, a level that helped prevent further declines in March and April. A break below this level could open the door to further losses, possibly down to $1,400.

不利的一面是，主要的支持持有1,550美元，这一水平有助于防止3月和4月进一步下降。低于此水平的休息可能会打开进一步损失的大门，可能会降至1,400美元。

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On-Chain Activity Supports Long-Term Holding Behavior

链活动支持长期保持行为

Several key on-chain indicators suggest Ethereum is being accumulated rather than sold. Data from platforms like CryptoQuant shows a consistent drop in ETH held on exchanges. When investors move coins off trading platforms and into private wallets, it usually indicates long-term holding intentions and reduced sell pressure.

几个关键的链链指标表明以太坊正在积累而不是出售。来自加密量牌等平台的数据显示，交流中的ETH持续下降。当投资者将硬币从交易平台转移到私人钱包时，通常表明长期持有意图并减轻了卖出压力。

At the same time, staking activity on the Ethereum network continues to rise. More ETH is being locked into Ethereum 2.0, further lowering the available supply for trading. Dormant coins—those untouched for long periods—also remain unmoved, which often suggests confidence among long-term holders.

同时，以太坊网络上的积分活动不断上升。更多的ETH被锁定在以太坊2.0中，进一步降低了可用的交易供应。休眠的硬币 - 长期未触及的硬币也保持不动，这通常暗示着长期持有人的信心。

These on-chain signals mirror what was seen in Bitcoin’s run-up in late 2020, where declining exchange balances and rising wallet activity signaled accumulation before a major breakout. As Bitcoin went on to rally from around $7,000 to $64,000 within a year, similar trends in Ethereum could herald a substantial price move.

这些链信号反映了2020年末比特币的起床中所看到的，在重大突破之前，交换余额和钱包活动的下降表明积累。随着比特币在一年内从7,000美元降至64,000美元，以太坊的类似趋势可能会预示着巨大的价格转移。