以太坊 ETF：儘管 SEC 拒絕，但仍有可能反彈

儘管 SEC 預計會拒絕以太坊現貨 ETF，但專家建議加密貨幣交易者存在潛在機會。 「賣出謠言，買入新聞」策略，包括預期拒絕並採取相應行動，可能會在美國證券交易委員會下週做出決定後提供看漲價格行動的機會。

Ethereum ETFs: A Lucrative Reversal in Store Despite Impending Rejection by the SEC

以太坊 ETF：儘管美國證券交易委員會即將拒絕，但利潤豐厚的逆轉即將到來

As the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nears its May 23rd deadline for approving or denying spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the prevailing sentiment within the financial community paints a bleak picture. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts no approvals until the end of 2025 at the earliest, while Polymarket bettors assign a mere 14% probability to their approval before May 31st.

隨著美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 接近 5 月 23 日批准或拒絕現貨以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的最後期限，金融界普遍的情緒描繪出一幅黯淡的景象。 Bloomberg Intelligence ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 預計最早要到 2025 年底才會獲得批准，而 Polymarket 投注者認為 5 月 31 日之前獲得批准的可能性僅為 14%。

However, amidst the widespread pessimism, a contrarian perspective emerges, offering a glimmer of hope for crypto traders. Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, suggests that the rejection of Ethereum ETFs may paradoxically trigger a bullish surge in its price.

然而，在普遍的悲觀情緒中，逆向觀點的出現，為加密貨幣交易者帶來了一線希望。加密貨幣對沖基金 Lekker Capital 創辦人 Quinn Thompson 表示，以太幣 ETF 被拒絕可能引發其價格看漲飆升。

Historical market behavior supports Thompson's hypothesis. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs exemplifies the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, where asset prices rise in anticipation of a positive event, only to plummet afterward. Bitcoin surged by 77% in the three months leading up to the ETF approval, but witnessed a 20% crash immediately after.

歷史市場行為支持湯普森的假設。比特幣現貨ETF的推出體現了「謠言買入，消息賣出」現象，即資產價格因預期利多事件而上漲，但隨後卻暴跌。比特幣在 ETF 核准前的三個月內飆升了 77%，但緊接著就暴跌了 20%。

Thompson believes the Ethereum ETFs could follow a similar pattern, but in reverse. "It's clear that the market is overwhelmingly bearish ahead of the event," he observes. "But this skewed sentiment presents an opportunity to fade market expectations."

湯普森認為，以太坊 ETF 可能會遵循類似的模式，但方向相反。 「很明顯，在事件發生之前市場普遍看跌，」他觀察到。 “但這種扭曲的情緒提供了一個削弱市場預期的機會。”

"In such situations, a significantly positive or negative outcome is required to defy consensus estimates," Thompson adds. In other words, the market has likely factored in the ETF rejection, leaving room for an unexpected price rally if Ethereum outperforms expectations.

湯普森補充道：“在這種情況下，需要顯著的積極或消極結果才能推翻共識估計。”換句話說，市場可能已經考慮了 ETF 被拒絕的因素，如果以太坊表現優於預期，則為意外的價格上漲留下空間。

Brian Rudick, senior strategist at crypto trading firm GSR, acknowledges the warning signs against ETF approval, including the SEC's lack of engagement with prospective issuers, Ethereum's uncertain regulatory status, and the ongoing investigation into the Ethereum Foundation.

加密貨幣交易公司 GSR 的高級策略師 Brian Rudick 承認存在反對 ETF 批准的警告信號，包括 SEC 缺乏與潛在發行人的接觸、以太坊監管狀況的不確定性以及對以太坊基金會正在進行的調查。

However, Thompson emphasizes that the SEC's reasoning behind the rejection will significantly influence any trading strategy. "If the denial stems from litigation, it could lead to a market downturn," he notes.

然而，湯普森強調，美國證券交易委員會拒絕的理由將極大地影響任何交易策略。 「如果拒絕源於訴訟，可能會導致市場低迷，」他指出。

Asset manager VanEck's application for a spot Ethereum ETF remains at the center of the SEC's decision-making process. With less than a week until the deadline, the industry eagerly awaits the verdict.

資產管理公司 VanEck 申請以太坊 ETF 現貨仍然是 SEC 決策過程的核心。距離截止日期還有不到一週的時間，業界熱切等待裁決。

Crypto Market Trends

加密貨幣市場趨勢

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Ethereum ETFs, broader crypto markets have exhibited modest gains in recent hours. Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, has increased by 1% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $61,835. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has gained 0.3%, reaching $2,918.

儘管以太幣 ETF 存在不確定性，但更廣泛的加密貨幣市場在最近幾個小時內表現出溫和上漲。占主導地位的加密貨幣比特幣在過去 24 小時內上漲了 1%，目前交易價格為 61,835 美元。以市值計算的第二大加密貨幣以太幣上漲了 0.3%，達到 2,918 美元。

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About the Author

懸在260 億美元FTX 支出之上的大問題（DL News）加密稅收損失收割（牛奶路）EigenLayer 早期採用者在空投（Unchained）後3 天內索取價值3.59 億美元的EIGEN 在首席執行官暗示美國打擊行動後，Tether 向Ripple 發動猛烈攻擊（DL News）2024 年最佳加密會計軟體（Milk Road）關於作者

Tom Carreras is a markets correspondent at DL News. For inquiries regarding Ethereum ETFs, he can be reached at tcarreras@dlnews.com.

湯姆·卡雷拉斯 (Tom Carreras) 是 DL News 的市場記者。有關以太坊 ETF 的諮詢，可以透過 tcarreras@dlnews.com 聯繫他。