以太坊 ETF：尽管 SEC 拒绝，但仍有可能反弹

尽管 SEC 预计会拒绝以太坊现货 ETF，但专家建议加密货币交易者存在潜在机会。 “卖出谣言，买入新闻”策略，包括预期拒绝并采取相应行动，可能会在美国证券交易委员会下周做出决定后提供看涨价格行动的机会。

Ethereum ETFs: A Lucrative Reversal in Store Despite Impending Rejection by the SEC

以太坊 ETF：尽管美国证券交易委员会即将拒绝，但利润丰厚的逆转即将到来

As the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nears its May 23rd deadline for approving or denying spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the prevailing sentiment within the financial community paints a bleak picture. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts no approvals until the end of 2025 at the earliest, while Polymarket bettors assign a mere 14% probability to their approval before May 31st.

随着美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 接近 5 月 23 日批准或拒绝现货以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的最后期限，金融界普遍的情绪描绘出一幅黯淡的景象。 Bloomberg Intelligence ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 预计最早要到 2025 年底才会获得批准，而 Polymarket 投注者认为 5 月 31 日之前获得批准的可能性仅为 14%。

However, amidst the widespread pessimism, a contrarian perspective emerges, offering a glimmer of hope for crypto traders. Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, suggests that the rejection of Ethereum ETFs may paradoxically trigger a bullish surge in its price.

然而，在普遍的悲观情绪中，逆向观点的出现，为加密货币交易者带来了一线希望。加密货币对冲基金 Lekker Capital 创始人 Quinn Thompson 表示，以太坊 ETF 被拒绝可能会引发其价格看涨飙升。

Historical market behavior supports Thompson's hypothesis. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs exemplifies the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, where asset prices rise in anticipation of a positive event, only to plummet afterward. Bitcoin surged by 77% in the three months leading up to the ETF approval, but witnessed a 20% crash immediately after.

历史市场行为支持汤普森的假设。比特币现货ETF的推出体现了“谣言买入，消息卖出”现象，即资产价格因预期利好事件而上涨，但随后却暴跌。比特币在 ETF 获批前的三个月内飙升了 77%，但紧接着就暴跌了 20%。

Thompson believes the Ethereum ETFs could follow a similar pattern, but in reverse. "It's clear that the market is overwhelmingly bearish ahead of the event," he observes. "But this skewed sentiment presents an opportunity to fade market expectations."

汤普森认为，以太坊 ETF 可能会遵循类似的模式，但方向相反。 “很明显，在事件发生之前市场普遍看跌，”他观察到。 “但这种扭曲的情绪提供了一个削弱市场预期的机会。”

"In such situations, a significantly positive or negative outcome is required to defy consensus estimates," Thompson adds. In other words, the market has likely factored in the ETF rejection, leaving room for an unexpected price rally if Ethereum outperforms expectations.

汤普森补充道：“在这种情况下，需要显着的积极或消极结果才能推翻共识估计。”换句话说，市场可能已经考虑了 ETF 被拒绝的因素，如果以太坊表现优于预期，则为意外的价格上涨留下空间。

Brian Rudick, senior strategist at crypto trading firm GSR, acknowledges the warning signs against ETF approval, including the SEC's lack of engagement with prospective issuers, Ethereum's uncertain regulatory status, and the ongoing investigation into the Ethereum Foundation.

加密货币交易公司 GSR 的高级策略师 Brian Rudick 承认存在反对 ETF 批准的警告信号，包括 SEC 缺乏与潜在发行人的接触、以太坊监管状况的不确定性以及对以太坊基金会正在进行的调查。

However, Thompson emphasizes that the SEC's reasoning behind the rejection will significantly influence any trading strategy. "If the denial stems from litigation, it could lead to a market downturn," he notes.

然而，汤普森强调，美国证券交易委员会拒绝的理由将极大地影响任何交易策略。 “如果拒绝源于诉讼，可能会导致市场低迷，”他指出。

Asset manager VanEck's application for a spot Ethereum ETF remains at the center of the SEC's decision-making process. With less than a week until the deadline, the industry eagerly awaits the verdict.

资产管理公司 VanEck 申请以太坊 ETF 现货仍然是 SEC 决策过程的核心。距离截止日期还有不到一周的时间，业界热切等待裁决。

Crypto Market Trends

加密货币市场趋势

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Ethereum ETFs, broader crypto markets have exhibited modest gains in recent hours. Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, has increased by 1% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $61,835. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has gained 0.3%, reaching $2,918.

尽管以太坊 ETF 存在不确定性，但更广泛的加密货币市场在最近几个小时内表现出温和上涨。占主导地位的加密货币比特币在过去 24 小时内上涨了 1%，目前交易价格为 61,835 美元。按市值计算的第二大加密货币以太坊上涨了 0.3%，达到 2,918 美元。

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About the Author

悬在 260 亿美元 FTX 支出之上的大问题（DL News）加密税收损失收割（牛奶路）EigenLayer 早期采用者在空投（Unchained）后 3 天内索取价值 3.59 亿美元的 EIGEN 在首席执行官暗示美国打击行动后，Tether 向 Ripple 发起猛烈攻击（DL News）2024 年最佳加密会计软件（Milk Road）关于作者

Tom Carreras is a markets correspondent at DL News. For inquiries regarding Ethereum ETFs, he can be reached at tcarreras@dlnews.com.

汤姆·卡雷拉斯 (Tom Carreras) 是 DL News 的市场记者。有关以太坊 ETF 的咨询，可以通过 tcarreras@dlnews.com 联系他。